What would you suggest is the most likely scenario come the final redemption date? Can you see anything in their accounts that suggest they have the means to pay the bond holders?
Are they more likely to issue new bonds/raise new finance to pay the bond holders? Alternatively can they extend the life of the bonds and push the redemption date if bond holders accept?
I think from day one they were always going to refinance to repay the bond. If they were making the sort of profits after tax to save for the repayment they would not have needed the bond in the first place . Frankly any emphasis on "they haven't got the money to repay" fails to understand how they set it up. It is not an indicator as such of impending doom
That said I don't think things have gone exactly to plan and the finances and associated errors will not help the refinancing. Their finances are not great. It will be new refinancing I don't think the bond will simply roll over on the same terms. It might even be different type of finance all together e.g. traditional bank loan, an issue of a new class of shares, New investors, etc. Or a mixture of these
Wasps are trying to make cost savings. Same as any responsible company would same Ccfc are. Yes they made 9m loss in previous accounts but that included some one off corrections. They are not as dependent on crowd numbers as many other sports teams. So without any inside knowledge I would expect an improvement in 2019 over 2018.
They will lose the Ccfc turnover but also the associated costs, possibly replace some of the turnover in other ways and perhaps at a better margin. Might allow them to restructure and make savings. No idea if that has happened but I suspect from reports earlier this year some attention has been paid to it. But that will be in the 2020 figures.
The CVC deal will have more of an effect on the wasps balance sheet than people seem to realise. There will be funds in the bank (restricted in use but could help build the new training ground which would then be a balance sheet asset for example with possibly grants available too)
However the owner of Exeter estimated the deal would add around 50m to each clubs balance sheet. There is the cash element approx £13m but the P share (like a golden share for Ccfc) would have a value based on what CVC paid for its 27% £200m. That values the premiership at at least £740m and wasps have one 13th share in it. In the last accounts the P share was valued at 9m I think. That improvement in the balance sheet will not hinder the refinancing.
Anyway we should have more of an idea at the end of the month when figures published.
Things to look out for
Valuation of the long lease
Valuation of the P share
Operating profit excluding the sale to CVC and any revaluation of shares or property
The net position on the balance sheet
Cash flow position excluding the CVC share sale.
How much they owe the owner
