The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (59 Viewers)

[CCFCSteve]

Out of intrest is there any reason that Varadkar saying Johnson wants a deal carries more weight than those involved who have said he doesn't want a deal?

The fact he had a meeting with him yesterday where they agreed the principles of a deal ?

 

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[CCFCSteve]

I wouldn’t be so sure Steve. I think Parliament has forced his hand and made him do his job and the best (if the reports are true) he can do is resurrect a deal that’s already been rejected. If I was being cynical I would say it suits his real strategy of taking us out without a deal by presenting a deal he cast iron knows will be rejected so he can move onto doing what he wants to do.

Of course the reports could be wrong and he has actually thrashed out a new deal but I’ll believe that when I see it.

Fair point, it is cynical but could be right (I doubt it). I guess we won’t know until we hear DUP/ERGs position on the new proposal

In response to DJR, I believe the progression of No Deal plans and a lot of the noise made by the government (normalisation) MAY have just about convinced enough labour MPs to vote through a deal rather than risk the alternative.

I said at the time my gut was that the No Deal stuff was as much about forcing parliament to (finally) make a decision as much as leverage over EU. I might still be proved wrong but that seemed logical to me.

 

[djr8369]

I guess because deep down he (like many others) was concerned about the indefinite nature of the backstop

I’m talking about post becoming PM and then again after his first proposal, when many suggested he was pursuing a No Deal as his primary option.

Why people don’t just hold their hands up say, fair play, don’t like him, don’t like Brexit at all but i was wrong, I don’t know.

Again they’ve gone out of their way to normalise no deal. It’s just crazy to criticise people for suspecting he wants no deal. Plus most people saying that openly admit they think he’s a charlatan and a complete turd.


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[djr8369]

Fair point, it is cynical but could be right (I doubt it). I guess we won’t know until we hear DUP/ERGs position on the new proposal

In response to DJR, I believe the progression of No Deal plans and a lot of the noise made by the government (normalisation) MAY have just about convinced enough labour MPs to vote through a deal rather than risk the alternative.

I said at the time my gut was that the No Deal stuff was as much about forcing parliament to (finally) make a decision as much as leverage over EU. I might still be proved wrong but that seemed logical to me.

You may well be right. Everyone has discussing whether the no deal stuff was a threat or their intended outcome and openly debating that. I’m just saying you can’t really complain of people thinking he wants no deal. It’s impossible to tell what the plan is (if there is one).


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[skybluetony176]

I guess because deep down he (like many others) was concerned about the indefinite nature of the backstop

I’m talking about post becoming PM and then again after his first proposal, when many suggested he was pursuing a No Deal as his primary option.

Why people don’t just hold their hands up say, fair play, don’t like him, don’t like Brexit at all but i was wrong, I don’t know.

Personally it’s a case of don’t trust him and given that his own brother and sister seem to also feel that way on this matter I think my feelings towards him are justified.

 

[dutchman]

Indeed, I was about to pose the question if there’s been a breakthrough who has he thrown under the bus.

The entire British nation, probably.

 

[skybluetony176]

I guess we won’t know until we hear DUP/ERGs position on the new proposal

Their silence is one of the main reasons I’m suspicious. Neither body is falling over themselves from what I’ve seen to either confirm or deny or indeed support or rebuff the alleged plan and that strikes me as odd given their historical abrasions to the idea.

 

[fernandopartridge]

I guess because deep down he (like many others) was concerned about the indefinite nature of the backstop

I’m talking about post becoming PM and then again after his first proposal, when many suggested he was pursuing a No Deal as his primary option.

Why people don’t just hold their hands up say, fair play, don’t like him, don’t like Brexit at all but i was wrong, I don’t know.

Why wouldn't the backstop be indefinite? It wouldn't be a backstop if it wasn't and regardless would be irrelevant if the sort of technology the Brexiteers say exist is likely to deployed asap.

 

[SkyBlueCharlie9]

Genuine situation as my line manager down here in Kent met panicking government officials from MHCLG yesterday! If no deal happens the official plan that has just been hashed together is that lorries/drivers without right paperwork will be put on a ferry at Dover and sent to Calais whereby the ferry will turn round in France and bring the lorries back to Dover where they will have to drive to and wait at Manston airport for authorisation. All because Dover port is too compact/small for large lorries to turn around in once they arrive. Chaos and shocking planning from government time after time.
Then there is total government over reaction and overspending on Brexit to portray illusion they are in some type of control. With original Brexit deadline of last spring the M20 has already been partially reduced to 2 lane 50mph for almost 12 months....causing daily congestion/disruption to my daily commute. Delays caused problems for many businesses/familes/organisations .... and all no f******* reason. Money found for the expensive road works at drop of a hat too. Complete overkill.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Why wouldn't the backstop be indefinite? It wouldn't be a backstop if it wasn't and regardless would be irrelevant if the sort of technology the Brexiteers say exist is likely to deployed asap.

I wasn’t talking about the rights or wrongs of the backstop, just responding to why Johnson didn’t vote for the WA first and second time of asking.

However, to answer the point, the concern was that EU wouldn’t accept viable alternatives and therefore keep us in the CU indefinitely (I was never convinced about this as I’m also aware of the disincentives for the EU in keeping us in the backstop)

 

[fernandopartridge]

I wasn’t talking about the rights or wrongs of the backstop, just responding to why Johnson didn’t vote for the WA first and second time of asking.

However, to answer the point, the concern was that EU wouldn’t accept viable alternatives and therefore keep us in the CU indefinitely (I was never convinced about this as I’m also aware of the disincentives for the EU in keeping us in the backstop)

The protocol has provision for that, those concerns would only be realised in an absolute hard Brexit scenario.

Article 15 Subsequent agreement
Should a subsequent agreement between the Union and the United Kingdom which addresses the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, avoids a hard border and protects the 1998 Agreement in all its dimensions, become applicable after the entry into force of the Withdrawal Agreement, this Protocol shall not apply or shall cease to apply, as the case may be, in whole or in part, from the date of application of such subsequent agreement and in accordance with that agreement

 

[shmmeee]

We obviously aren't otherwise they wouldn't have come up with the first WA...& finally found something Eire at least appear willing to explore.

And they HAVE played hardball in many people's opinion. They want to send subtle warnings to other nations not to do the same. Whether they will or not at some future point we shall have have to wait and see.

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Both Mays deal and this version of Mays deal with a check on the backstop require a border in the Irish Sea or the entire UK in a CU. We have known about this from the start. We have decided to drop one of our contradictory red lines, which is what everyone who isn’t a Brexit cultist has been saying was the sticking point from the start.

 

[shmmeee]

I wasn’t talking about the rights or wrongs of the backstop, just responding to why Johnson didn’t vote for the WA first and second time of asking.

However, to answer the point, the concern was that EU wouldn’t accept viable alternatives and therefore keep us in the CU indefinitely (I was never convinced about this as I’m also aware of the disincentives for the EU in keeping us in the backstop)

Why the EU would want to keep someone in the backstop against their will is beyond me, but even if they did we’d just take it to international court that we have a reasonable solution that meets our requirements and crack on. Though the EU wouldn’t do that because reneging on treaties is a quick way to stop others trading with you.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Why the EU would want to keep someone in the backstop against their will is beyond me, but even if they did we’d just take it to international court that we have a reasonable solution that meets our requirements and crack on. Though the EU wouldn’t do that because reneging on treaties is a quick way to stop others trading with you.

As I said Shmmeee, i never saw it as likely either. There were significant disincentives for the EU to do this, one of which, from memory, was the UK remaining in the CU without paying into the pot !

Unfortunately that wasn’t sufficient for all MPs ie ERG !

 

[CCFCSteve]

Both Mays deal and this version of Mays deal with a check on the backstop require a border in the Irish Sea or the entire UK in a CU. We have known about this from the start. We have decided to drop one of our contradictory red lines, which is what everyone who isn’t a Brexit cultist has been saying was the sticking point from the start.

Both Mays deal and this version of Mays deal with a check on the backstop require a border in the Irish Sea or the entire UK in a CU. We have known about this from the start. We have decided to drop one of our contradictory red lines, which is what everyone who isn’t a Brexit cultist has been saying was the sticking point from the start.

The devils in the detail on this....which will determine whether it could get through Parliament. I get the impression it won’t be as straight forward as NI staying in the CU (can’t imagine that would fly although desperate times !!!)

 

[skybluetony176]

Government faces industry backlash on Brexit plans

 

[shmmeee]

As I said Shmmeee, i never saw it as likely either. There were significant disincentives for the EU to do this, one of which, from memory, was the UK remaining in the CU without paying into the pot !

Unfortunately that wasn’t sufficient for all MPs ie ERG !

I suspect the ERG, being the tax dodging disaster capitalists they are, want No Deal.

DUP are mental ideologues and won’t accept the Irish Sea border. Let’s just hope they can be convinced or sidelined. I think the Labour Leave bunch are twitchy enough to vote for any deal and sideline them. I wonder what the Tory rebels will do.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I suspect the ERG, being the tax dodging disaster capitalists they are, want No Deal.

DUP are mental ideologues and won’t accept the Irish Sea border. Let’s just hope they can be convinced or sidelined. I think the Labour Leave bunch are twitchy enough to vote for any deal and sideline them. I wonder what the Tory rebels will do.

The compromise is surely to pass it, with an amendment tabled for it to be taken to a referendum?

Surely that'd sideline the extreme mentalists and make them irrelevant?

 

[shmmeee]

The compromise is surely to pass it, with an amendment tabled for it to be taken to a referendum?

Surely that'd sideline the extreme mentalists and make them irrelevant?

That’s what we’d hope for, but if he can do it without that why wouldn’t he. Labour leavers have already said they’ll vote for literally anything and the rebels will likely want back in in some cases. Question is how many of each and does it outweighs losing the DUP and/or the ERG.

Another possibility is Mays deal comes back coz it’s a new parliament so it can, and he gets an easy majority, maybe with a referendum. Or as you say he passes his deal with a referendum attached. But then has to fight an election having either brought back a deal everyone agrees is shit, or having given in to the Remoaner scum by having a second referendum, or both. All of which are likely to drain his support.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I suspect the ERG, being the tax dodging disaster capitalists they are, want No Deal.

DUP are mental ideologues and won’t accept the Irish Sea border. Let’s just hope they can be convinced or sidelined. I think the Labour Leave bunch are twitchy enough to vote for any deal and sideline them. I wonder what the Tory rebels will do.

Accurate assessment ! Will be an interesting week....IF a deal is even agreed with EU to put to Parliament

The NI situation is even more interesting. If the current take on the latest proposals is correct (I’m not convinced it is as!straightforward as believed) a lot of NI will be overjoyed with the proposal, as they will be hugely attractive to foreign investment with a foot in both camps (during backstop). However, the deal could get scuppered by the DUP, which in turn could be political suicide.

who knows what’s going to happen though mate ! I’ve given up guessing

 

[SkyblueBazza]

It depends on what has unlocked the situation. If he’s gone for a border in the Irish Sea then he’s done what everyone has been saying for 3 years, made a compromise instead of pretending we can have it all our own way. It’s also the solution that was first proposed by the EU until we suggested the backstop.

We won’t know until we hear more. My point though was that he’ll most likely have to throw somebody under the bus and most likely it will be some version of a solution that was already known but be spun as something he’s achieved due to all the bravado since he came in.

All this noise they’ve made, all this show of strength is meaningless. It’s not there to create leverage or force the EU to make a concession. It’s there to make the public think that so BJ looks strong before an election takes place. People called this months ago.


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Well he was on a hiding to nothing on the looking strong point because he has had a minority government.

Either way, the real talking has now begun. Behind closed doors with very little knowledge of what is proposed.

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[SkyblueBazza]

Probably won’t get through Parliament unless DUP agree to it so a long way to go.

For those Remainers in Parliament (and some of those on here) who insisted Johnson didn’t want a deal I hope they read the quote from Varadkar who was ‘absolutely convinced’ that Johnson wanted to strike a deal.

Doubt any humble pie will be eaten and theyll move away from the ‘he wants to take us out on a catastrophic no deal’ narrative onto something else

love him or hate him, and for all the flack he has taken, from day one the steps he has taken have been to try to get a deal agreed and through Parliament.....whether it can happen at this late hour remains to be seen

ps I hadn’t read all the posts but I see the narrative has changed already :emoji_joy:

There are some seriously clever people working on this. The proposal put forward just at the right time for Boris to get proper talks going...but little real time for either side to move very far. Then agreement made, Boris abides by the law & asks for a very short extension to a. Get it through parliament & b. Maintain that in principle we have left on 31st unless parliament decides to play silly buggers again.

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[SkyblueBazza]

Yes there were a range of opinions. Please note that the government has been saying they’re ready for no deal and saying they’d do it if they couldn’t get a deal so that’s a perfectly reasonable conclusion.


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There is a BIG difference between wanting to take us out without a deal, & being prepared to do so if necessary.

It seems to have done no harm in getting things moving at least.

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[djr8369]

There are some seriously clever people working on this.

There isn’t.




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[SkyblueBazza]

If the stories being reported are true all he’s done is come back with May’s Mk1 deal, which he himself didn’t want. Originally. In the words of May nothing has changed.

Yes...stories. They help sell papers they do

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[SkyblueBazza]

But if he was trying to get a deal through why didn't he vote for it the first time round when May presented it?

Like many - primarily because of the backstop...& the speculators are suggesting the details of the latest proposal on that part at least have changed. So it isn't the same deal & might become more accepted by the wider parliament.

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[SkyblueBazza]

Its not really nonsense though is it, the government has gone out of its way to normalise no deal.

Anyway, there seems to be progress towards a deal of some kind which is great news.


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The Govt were criticised for unpreparedness. Next criticised for preparing for a no deal (which I believe has always & still is a remote possibility). In other words for the Tory-bashers it has been open season. Meanwhile those that matter have & will remain impervious to such criticisms & just get on with the job in hand.

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[SkyblueBazza]

I wouldn’t be so sure Steve. I think Parliament has forced his hand and made him do his job and the best (if the reports are true) he can do is resurrect a deal that’s already been rejected. If I was being cynical I would say it suits his real strategy of taking us out without a deal by presenting a deal he cast iron knows will be rejected so he can move onto doing what he wants to do.

Of course the reports could be wrong and he has actually thrashed out a new deal but I’ll believe that when I see it.

That reads like some of conspiracy theory Tony. Touchè

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[SkyblueBazza]

Out of intrest is there any reason that Varadkar saying Johnson wants a deal carries more weight than those involved who have said he doesn't want a deal?

Well for one he has spoken to Boris & gone on public record, rather than just throwing accusations based on either nothing or basic gossip like a good many have

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[djr8369]

The Govt were criticised for unpreparedness. Next criticised for preparing for a no deal (which I believe has always & still is a remote possibility). In other words for the Tory-bashers it has been open season. Meanwhile those that matter have & will remain impervious to such criticisms & just get on with the job in hand.

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No. They were criticised for pretending to prepare and awarding contracts to pretend ferry companies then they were criticised for making a show of preparing after parliament had made it illegal.




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[SkyblueBazza]

Again they’ve gone out of their way to normalise no deal. It’s just crazy to criticise people for suspecting he wants no deal. Plus most people saying that openly admit they think he’s a charlatan and a complete turd.


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'Normalise no deal' - or just emphasise their (untrue) willingness to do so if necessary?

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[SkyblueBazza]

Personally it’s a case of don’t trust him and given that his own brother and sister seem to also feel that way on this matter I think my feelings towards him are justified.

Do they "seem to feel that way"? Or do they just disagree with him on the issue?

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[SkyblueBazza]

Both Mays deal and this version of Mays deal with a check on the backstop require a border in the Irish Sea or the entire UK in a CU. We have known about this from the start. We have decided to drop one of our contradictory red lines, which is what everyone who isn’t a Brexit cultist has been saying was the sticking point from the start.

Why "May's deal"? Accept it for what it is, like the referendum result! Most MPs had issue with the backstop in that deal. If the backstop has changed, it isn't "May's deal" anymore is it. The main stumbling block has changed.
You just abhor the idea of giving Boris ANY credit for anything, possibly out of some spitefulness because the referendum didn't go the way you wanted.

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[SkyblueBazza]

There isn’t.




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If you believe that...that is your choice

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[Deleted member 5849]

Why "May's deal"? Accept it for what it is, like the referendum result! Most MPs had issue with the backstop in that deal. If the backstop has changed, it isn't "May's deal" anymore is it. The main stumbling block has changed.
You just abhor the idea of giving Boris ANY credit for anything, possibly out of some spitefulness because the referendum didn't go the way you wanted.

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No, it's because the Peime Minister deserves no credit for being a bungling untruthful divisive shambolic incompetent.