All polls have been consistent. There of course is always a percentage of doubt. But the gap is massive. The Lib Dems have taken a lot of votes off Labour. The big question is can Labour get them back. But with Corbyn still in charge?
MY VIEW:
I think tactical voting will be huge. Labour being so far behind helps anti-Corbyn remainers justify lending them their vote because he won’t get in.
The Leave vote in interesting. They aren’t as politically engaged and may be less likely to vote tactically instead making an emotional vote for BXP or they may swing behind Boris. How Farage approaches it will matter, the message seems to be “Vote BXP in the North and Tory in the South” and that may work, or as we saw in Stoke it may split the vote and let Labour in because while Corbyn is hated, Farage and Johnson are also unpopular in their own right.
The student vote and turnout are huge variables. Brexit voters in working class areas are not practiced voters and this will matter. Labours ground game is always good and BXP have suffered from a lack of it.
The result could be anything from another hung parliament (as they’ve virtually all been since the crash) to a whopping Tory majority or anything in between. Personally I don’t know. Though I suspect a hung parliament because the U.K. electorate is the biggest troll of them all.
