Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Three way split forecast between the established parties and Sinn Fein.
Oirish Election (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter Brighton Sky Blue
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skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
That’s based on 1st preference votes. In Ireland you don’t just mark one box, you list your preferences in order and if there’s no clear winner they count the second preference and add it too the first, so on and so on. Sinn Fein can’t field enough candidates to form a government so ultimately it’s a two horse race and Sinn Fein will fall at the second preference hurdle. That’s not to say that they won’t earn enough seats to have some influence. I think it also sends out a message about the appetite for reunification in the South. There clearly is one.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Maybe re: reunification, but it’s more wider issues, IMO.
tisza
Well-Known Member
People tired of the main 2 parties.
Some chronic domestic issues that all have failed to address.
Sinn Fein have campaigned on these domestic issues rather than reunification etc.
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
Every single age group apart from the over 65s mostly voted SF.
Don’t know what the drivers are, but next time round they win by a mile. And that can only mean reunification at some stage.
Don’t know what the drivers are, but next time round they win by a mile. And that can only mean reunification at some stage.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
FF and FG are probably best off merging.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
The Shinners campaigned as a progessive centre left part that says it will address Irelands serious domestic issues like poor healthcare, poor school sand high cost of living.
FF and FG will need to deal with them as if they try and form government without them they are toast nest time round.
FF and FG will need to deal with them as if they try and form government without them they are toast nest time round.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
They are wining on 1st preference though so the transfers don't really count
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
They ran an exit poll on reunification and it was 57%-40% in favour
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
I live here and I haven't been keeping up- but the SF vote doesn't seem to be mainly a reunification thing, its more about social issues- housing & social care etc.
Having said that I heard one SF guy on the radio this am and he made it very clear that if there is a SF govt then they have 3 main pillars: 1. Social issues tackled, 2: EU status is unchanged and 3: Reunification "will" happen. He even posited that this SF vote is a reaction to the way UK is veering to the right (SF are very left).
Thats a politician talking of course, so could all be nonsense!
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Seems more like a ‘screw the establishment’ vote in response to continued issues with social inequality. The Stormont vote will show if they have the unity mandate or not
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
Talking to people back in Ireland today yes it appears that way, people are pissed off.
Seems like SF plan is not workable though- spend billions on social care, housing etc and tax everyone over €100k to the hilt to pay for it.
I do like this PR system though.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
SF have to accept what they repeatedly fail to do so which is that they have no right to impose a border poll unless the consensus exists on both sides. Not to say it won’t thanks to Boris but consent has to guide the discussion.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Long-term reunification is certain to happen, especially now after the issues with the north and Brexit.
Referring to the North I've been mulling whether Boris's bridge is some kind of vehicle to head off this unification chatter?
Would such infrastructure pose any issues here?
Think I read something the other week , possibly regurgitated from other studies where Unionists may present themselves like the Jewish community ,having been persecuted over milllemia for their beliefs.
Would such infrastructure pose any issues here?
Think I read something the other week , possibly regurgitated from other studies where Unionists may present themselves like the Jewish community ,having been persecuted over milllemia for their beliefs.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
He has done more to wreck the union than Adams or McGuinness ever could
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
It is funny how in Ireland they seem as bothered about inequality as us in the U.K. but in Ireland instead of queuing up to vote for the party responsible for that they vote for a different direction. And they say that the Irish are thick.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
To be fair 'they' now mostly consists of G, Boris + Nige
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Yeah, they’ve won a good few seats on first preference already. 32 I think it was the last time I checked. My understanding is that they couldn’t field candidates in every seat though so even if they win every seat that they’ve fielded a candidate in they still won’t have enough seats to form a government on their own or win enough to stop the other two forming a coalition and keeping Sinn Fein from government. Whatever happens though Sinn Fein will have enough seats to have a strong voice in Parliament though.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Think that FF and FG need to recognise that 'IRA IRA IRA' isn't an argument against them anymore, same goes for the DUP/UUP. Argue them on policy substance
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I see the Greens have made some good gains also. Be interesting to see if Sinn Fein and Greens could get enough votes to form a government and keep the two former main parties out of power altogether.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Just in time to take a holiday in the All Irish Republic
I’ve avoided posting on this thread as I don’t know enough about Irish politics, however, not sure bringing either of those two into the debate (and comparing them in some way to Johnson) is appropriate
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
How is it inappropriate? The comparison to Johnson is about nothing more than his actions making unity more likely. No other connotations
Just didn’t see the need to be mentioning two people who historically supported the fight for unity through violence/killing innocents (via links to IRA and provisional IRA)
apologies if oversensitive on the matter
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I see your point but they did take considerable roles in the peace process following that. The comparison to Johnson really is just about his actions making it more likely than the bombs and bullets did.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I don't know. Johnson’s managing to do in years what Adams and McGuinness spent decades trying to do. Johnson is going to end up a Republican hero, they’ll write rebel songs about his achievements.
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Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
We will forget the millions of innocent people killed as a result of British Colonisation.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
First time you've said that instead of English there ROS
Ring Of Steel
Well-Known Member
Two things there. First off, the two terms (Britain and England) were interchangeable in colonial times, secondly I need to change my username cause ROS is Revenue Online Services here and I think of the taxman every time I see it.
It does look like the Brexit vote has accelerated the likelihood of reunification. As I say, I don’t know enough about Irish politics etc to comment much but understood that over time it was possibly edging in that direction anyway.
As with the Scots, my preference would be for NI to remain part of the UK but ultimately it’s their call. I should think a lot have looked over at the Irish economy (low Corp Tax attracting new business etc) and would possibly find that more attractive than remaining. The Brexit NI fudge might well put NI in a strong position anyway though. See how it plays out I guess
tisza
Well-Known Member
Growth is in high tech sectors , not necessarily large employers.
But it's the wealth generated from the low corporation tax seems to have funded a lot of it so that's not necessarily wealth that's going to filter down. It's why Ireland (with Luxemburg, Malta and 1 other) are blocking the move to uniform tax policies.