The Final Run In (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter stupot07
- Start date
don't you mean 'when'?
rob9872
Well-Known Member
I'm too lazy, can you update this please
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I'm too lazy, can you update this please
polish you're dancing shoes, we're pissing the league. Hope that's succinct enough?
capel & collindridge
Well-Known Member
Or putting it less succinctly, if we play like Southend for our last 10 games and average one point every two games, we should finish 8th= with Sunderland on 72 points. If we can manage one point a game like Wimbledon, we should finish second behind Rotherham on 77 points. If we can manage just over a point a game, like Rochdale, MK or Accrington we should finish 2nd to Rotherham, equal on 78 points but with a worse GD. If we can average 1.3 points per game, like Blackpool or Bristol Rovers have done, we end up champions, two points clear of Rotherham on 80 points. This will all depend on all teams continuing to accumulate points at the same rate they have done so far.
Now, if they all finish the season with 1.97 points* for their remaining games (which they won't!), and we start to perform like Southend (0.54 points per game) we would finish ninth, behind Doncaster, but still three points above Gillingham and four above Ipswich. (*1.97 is our points per game at present, 0.20 points better than Rotherham in second place)
If all teams average 2 pts a game for the rest of the season (which no team has managed so far, not even the mighty Sky Blues!) we should need to perform like Burton, Ipswich or Gillingham have so far to be champions, a point clear of Rotherham. If we only perform like Blackpool or Bristol Rovers have this season we will still get automatic promotion. But with every other team getting two points a game for the rest of the season, we shall just miss out on the play offs if we only perform as well as Wimbledon have done so far. No need to worry though, only one or two teams at the most will pick up an average of two points a game for their remaining fixtures. That means if the remaining teams continue to pick up points only at the same rate they are doing at present, we shall at least make the play offs, even if we perform only as well as Wimbledon have done so far. If we can perform as well as Bristol Rovers have done so far, we make the autos.
And if any team is going to average 2 points a game for their remaining fixtures, we must be favourites.
Is that succfcint enough.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
What about if they take the form of the last ten games into the final ten rather than the form of the entire season?
capel & collindridge
Well-Known Member
But we don't, I presume you mean.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yeah. Thinking specifically of Oxford who I saw are on a five game (at least) winning streak. I’d imagine their recent form is significantly better than their overall.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
For me, momentum is probably with Fleetwood at the moment. Their February was outstanding, and clearly a side that doesn’t lose many games.
Rotherham look like they could mess this up, with some sloppy results. That probably benefits us. If we can take advantage and build on the 7 point gap, we could more or less have 2nd place (at least) secured by P’boro at home.
As for Oxford, they’ve played some ‘easier’ games and have done very well - but in 2020 haven’t really done particularly well against the Top 6 teams. They play Wycombe, Pompey, Fleetwood and ourselves in their remaining 9 games. Personally, I can see them dropping off.
capel & collindridge
Well-Known Member
To answer Shmmeee's question:
If all teams' remaining results are based on the form of their last ten games, we head the table by 12 points:
Coventry 93 pts
Rotherham 81 pts
_________________________
Portsmouth 80 pts
Peterborough 78 pts
Fleetwood 78 pts
Sunderland 77 pts
=================================================================
Oxford 76 pts
and everyone else will end up with less than 70 pts
If you leave us aside, but expect every other team to perform as they have in their last 10 games, we shall need 14 more points for autos, perhaps 15 for the title. And 10 points ( a point a game) to get the last play off place, in place of Sunderland.
A point of information, only five teams failed to get 10 points in their last 10 games: Lincoln and Shrewsbury (9), Blackpool (8) and Bristol Rovers and Bolton (6)
If all teams' remaining results are based on the form of their last ten games, we head the table by 12 points:
Coventry 93 pts
Rotherham 81 pts
_________________________
Portsmouth 80 pts
Peterborough 78 pts
Fleetwood 78 pts
Sunderland 77 pts
=================================================================
Oxford 76 pts
and everyone else will end up with less than 70 pts
If you leave us aside, but expect every other team to perform as they have in their last 10 games, we shall need 14 more points for autos, perhaps 15 for the title. And 10 points ( a point a game) to get the last play off place, in place of Sunderland.
A point of information, only five teams failed to get 10 points in their last 10 games: Lincoln and Shrewsbury (9), Blackpool (8) and Bristol Rovers and Bolton (6)
capel & collindridge
Well-Known Member
Oxford's last ten games were W5 D2 L3. Fleetwood's were W5 D4 L1
Ours were W8 D2 L0
But then you all know that! Teams often string half a dozen good results together. It's much harder to extend that to 10 unbeaten with 7 or 8 wins. (Unless you are Liverpool).
Ours were W8 D2 L0
But then you all know that! Teams often string half a dozen good results together. It's much harder to extend that to 10 unbeaten with 7 or 8 wins. (Unless you are Liverpool).
torchomatic
Well-Known Member
Alan Judge out for the season. Ipswich's woes continue. Can only be a good thing for us and the others in the chasing pack.
stupot07
Well-Known Member
updated ^^^
added goal difference to it as well
rob9872
Well-Known Member
Top man
itsabuzzard
Well-Known Member
rob9872
Well-Known Member
I'm not so sure it's ideal. I consider Ipswich out of it now and they still have to play some of our contenders, so I'd prefer them to be putting a strong side out.
Sky Blue Harry H
Well-Known Member
This !
skybluesam66
Well-Known Member
Sky sports fm simulation has us 3 rd
skyblueinBaku
Well-Known Member
That seems to be a very pessimistic simulation.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
How????!!!!
Did they do Championship?
Did Leeds come 3rd
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
I think the player ratings in the game would have had most of our players as being bang average for this league whereas in reality a number of ours stepped up to way beyond that. Also the tactics etc might be different or our midfield square doesn't translate very well into the game. I assume they just played in through and let the computer autopick teams and they may well have picked different players and thus formation.
Would love for them to show the end of game stats for all the teams to find out.
Hobo
Well-Known Member
All hypothetical bollocks. Doesnt account for sudden loss of form, an unlucky defeat followed by the jitters, injuries, bottom teams getting results against top teams.
With 9 or 10 games left no one can predict what would happen. The old football pools has a very long history that shows results cannot be predicted based on form.
With 9 or 10 games left no one can predict what would happen. The old football pools has a very long history that shows results cannot be predicted based on form.