Coronavirus (11 Viewers)

ajsccfc

Well-Known Member
Looks like the first famous person to get it is legitimately famous, Tom Hanks
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
People are going mad for schools to close.

What happens when NHS staff can't go into work because they have their kids?

Isn't it a bit too early to start shutting the country down?

Conflicting advice. that Medium post lays out some pretty scary stats on unknown cases and the death rate when you don’t take measures early being five times higher.

A bit more on that graph people have been arguing over.



Can’t see how people are whining at log scales this thread is spot on it’s the correct way to display exponential data.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Conflicting advice. that Medium post lays out some pretty scary stats on unknown cases and the death rate when you don’t take measures early being five times higher.



Can’t see how people are whining at log scales this thread is spot on it’s the correct way to display exponential data.
Because it's designed to be misleading
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Because it gives the impression countries such as the uk have closer in case numbers to Italy etc than they are. There is no need for them as it's not a scale but a linear number the value is on. The number of cases doesn't go up in the power of anything this the only reason I can see to us it us to condense the y axis to make it look like the number of cases in various countries is closer together.
 

OffenhamSkyBlue

Well-Known Member
There is no response. Nothing. Everyone else has taken measures, but not us apart from to talk about the finances.
You are utterly incorrect on this point, RoS. PHE, the Chief Medical Officers, Chief Scientific Advisers and the like have been observing and monitoring the situation on an hourly basis. They have planned for this type of eventuality for a decade, and the algorithms and mathematical modelling of the epidemiology underpins the entire contain, delay, research strategy. WHEN the numbers hit trigger points which indicate the contain phase has reached its conclusion, the advice will change. The public and media trying to predict or cry for that switch are not helping.
Everything on the BBC is still clickbait with rhetorical questions as headlines!
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Because it gives the impression countries such as the uk have closer in case numbers to Italy etc than they are. There is no need for them as it's not a scale but a linear number the value is on. The number of cases doesn't go up in the power of anything this the only reason I can see to us it us to condense the y axis to make it look like the number of cases in various countries is closer together.

Constant doubling at the same rate is also exponential, it doesn’t have to be to the power. In the U.K. cases have been doubling every 4 days or so for example.

Look at the uptick here and tell me that’s not an exponential function:

CEC973E7-8A62-451E-827A-EE7E6FAAC267.jpeg
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
There is no constant doubling. That is utter bollocks according to the data you must posted
 

Corrado

Well-Known Member
That's my holiday to the US f**cked - meant to be flying out 11/04 - fine as it stands now and UK and Ireland not banned but that is bound to change soon - Plus some of my party will have been in France within 14 days prior to flying out, so rules them out now!
 

Marty

Well-Known Member
Should have banned travel from all infected countries immediately and have checks at the boarders.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Well I’ve just been sent home sick for scaring another employee cos I’m ill. She didn’t like me coughing and generally being ill in her vicinity. Probably for the best. Feels like it’s starting to get real today.

He's got a point though ain't he? If they were closed early it wouldn't have spread

Yeah. Though in their defence they were the first place to see it. Not sure what excuse other countries have for not following suit.
 

Marty

Well-Known Member
Well I’ve just been sent home sick for scaring another employee cos I’m ill. She didn’t like me coughing and generally being ill in her vicinity. Probably for the best. Feels like it’s starting to get real today.



Yeah. Though in their defence they were the first place to see it. Not sure what excuse other countries have for not following suit.

Hong Kong implemented these measures and Singapore were very similar.
 

SkyBlueDom26

Well-Known Member
Well I’ve just been sent home sick for scaring another employee cos I’m ill. She didn’t like me coughing and generally being ill in her vicinity. Probably for the best. Feels like it’s starting to get real today.


.

Have you got the symptoms?
 

Marty

Well-Known Member
It seems to be us and the US that won’t for whatever reason (medical advice/secret plan to kill all old people).

Possibly down to relying on China too heavily for manufacturing of goods?
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
He's got a point though ain't he? If they were closed early it wouldn't have spread

It’s a fair point/assumption but from what I’ve read/heard unfortunately due to the symptoms not showing for a period of time (and in some cases being extremely minor) and the substantial movement of people around the globe, it’s always going to be hard/impossible to track and control.

We could’ve banned flights from say China but unless the whole world did the same it would still be transmitted here (via other countries) as there’s always going to be a lag between the spread and the recorded cases ie how long has the virus been active before cases are highlighted in a specific country ? You’re always going to be one step behind.

only option would have been to close borders from pretty much every country in very early stages or test every person coming into the country - both never going to happen.

I agree it probably would’ve slowed things down though.

We have huge benefits of globalisation and global travel etc but this is a obviously a big downside
 

Ring Of Steel

Well-Known Member
You are utterly incorrect on this point, RoS. PHE, the Chief Medical Officers, Chief Scientific Advisers and the like have been observing and monitoring the situation on an hourly basis. They have planned for this type of eventuality for a decade, and the algorithms and mathematical modelling of the epidemiology underpins the entire contain, delay, research strategy. WHEN the numbers hit trigger points which indicate the contain phase has reached its conclusion, the advice will change. The public and media trying to predict or cry for that switch are not helping.
Everything on the BBC is still clickbait with rhetorical questions as headlines!

Bollocks. And I am not basing anything on "the BBC".
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Possibly down to relying on China too heavily for manufacturing of goods?

Hmmm. Sorts the housing and social care crisis, brings manufacturing back to the U.K., shuts the borders, ends globalisation.

Maybe coronavirus was the real Brexit all along.
 

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