Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (222 Viewers)

[David O'Day]

It's been reported by the BBC so you would hope they verified it if the locals didn't.

That's the report I saw. There doesn't appear go be any verification quotes in there. Only quotes seem to be lifted from social media.

Nit saying it is untrue just confused as to why it happened last week I was in the figures.

 

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[CCFCSteve]

The UK's coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn't | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam

Interesting read. It's by Nassim Nicholas Taleb before anyone loses their shit so pretty authoritative.

Only time will the what actions/measures etc have worked or not. Nassim appears to have conveniently forgotten the initial steps/strategy that gave us a head start over certain European countries. Also, the fact that by basing our decisions on modelling/remodelling the strategy was amended/accelerated and, that Cummings (who I’m not particularly a fan of) wanted a full lockdown if London two weeks ago. but hey, those things don’t quite fit with the article. Worth also remembering that articles such as these are based on knowing/insight into a fraction of the conversations, data etc being shared at senior level. These authors might well ultimately be correct but as I say, only time will tell. In the meantime I’d rather be following advice from a Chris Witty (or Patrick Vallence) of this world, rather than a professor of risk engineering (may be ill be proven wrong in due course though)

Ps read about this earlier, might be useful for Hills and others with symptoms to sign up even belatedly I guess (it’s a C-19 symptom tracker set up by ICL COVID Symptom Tracker) - Nick worth having the link as a sticky thread ??

 

[David O'Day]

Only time will the what actions/measures etc have worked or not. Nassim appears to have conveniently forgotten the initial steps/strategy that gave us a head start over certain European countries. Also, the fact that by basing our decisions on modelling/remodelling the strategy was amended/accelerated and, that Cummings (who I’m not particularly a fan of) wanted a full lockdown if London two weeks ago. but hey, those things don’t quite fit with the article. Worth also remembering that articles such as these are based on knowing/insight into a fraction of the conversations, data etc being shared at senior level. These authors might well ultimately be correct but as I say, only time will tell. In the meantime I’d rather be following advice from a Chris Witty of this world, rather than a professor of risk engineering (may be ill be proven wrong in due course though)

Ps read about this earlier, might be useful for Hills and others with symptoms to sign up even belatedly I guess (it’s a C-19 symptom tracker set up by ICL COVID Symptom Tracker) - Nick worth having the link as a sticky thread ??

Correct, we absolutely nailed the early track and trace stage which is 1 reason why we are in a much better place

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[djr8369]

Only time will the what actions/measures etc have worked or not. Nassim appears to have conveniently forgotten the initial steps/strategy that gave us a head start over certain European countries. Also, the fact that by basing our decisions on modelling/remodelling the strategy was amended/accelerated and, that Cummings (who I’m not particularly a fan of) wanted a full lockdown if London two weeks ago. but hey, those things don’t quite fit with the article. Worth also remembering that articles such as these are based on knowing/insight into a fraction of the conversations, data etc being shared at senior level. These authors might well ultimately be correct but as I say, only time will tell. In the meantime I’d rather be following advice from a Chris Witty of this world, rather than a professor of risk engineering (may be ill be proven wrong in due course though)

Ps read about this earlier, might be useful for Hills and others with symptoms to sign up even belatedly I guess (it’s a C-19 symptom tracker set up by ICL COVID Symptom Tracker) - Nick worth having the link as a sticky thread ??

All valid points but it must also be noted that every country has their own Chris Witty equivalent.

I've seen that Cummings wanted London in lockdown earlier but has that been confirmed and if so do we know where the hold up was?

 

[CCFCSteve]

All valid points but it must also be noted that every country has their own Chris Witty equivalent.

I've seen that Cummings wanted London in lockdown earlier but has that been confirmed and if so do we know where the hold up was?

He was overruled. It was in a Sunday Times article which also mentioned him being happy for old people to die (probably not quite accurate !!!)

London appears to be adhering to the latest measures (from what I’ve heard) so hopefully won’t be necessary but i do think stricter measures might have to be implemented in the big cities

 

[djr8369]

He was overruled. It was in a Sunday Times article which also mentioned him being happy for old people to die (probably not quite accurate !!!)

London appears to be adhering to the latest measures (from what I’ve heard) so hopefully won’t be necessary but i do think stricter measures might have to be implemented in the big cities

I see today many construction companies are shutting down to keep their workers safe which will help.

 

[shmmeee]

I don't read too much into the bits that don't make sense. Too much of it. A guess is the gospel to many and others believe every word they see.

Ah, so you didn’t understand it. Got ya.

In a nutshell during an outbreak per cap numbers distort against small countries. At the stage we are at all outbreaks grow in the same way so absolute numbers are best.

Also a virus outbreak is not a function of lifestyle or healthcare so the usual reasons for per cap figures for comparability don’t count.

 

[shmmeee]

Interesting thread about the FT reporting of that “half the country have had it” study. Turns out, that’s not at all what the study was:

 

[David O'Day]

I see today many construction companies are shutting down to keep their workers safe which will help.

Good and hopefully the measures for the gig/self employed workers will be enough. If it is 80 percent of your present earnings then that could of been implemented in the original measures.

 

[Grendel]

Why Japan appears to have avoided a mass coronavirus outbreak

Japan is interesting - I suspect it’s culture of natural social distancing may actually prove to be a factor that worked in their favour

 

[Mcbean]

I wonder how they can validate who is self employed - I am a professional c*nt stretcher but don’t declare my earnings

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Only time will the what actions/measures etc have worked or not. Nassim appears to have conveniently forgotten the initial steps/strategy that gave us a head start over certain European countries. Also, the fact that by basing our decisions on modelling/remodelling the strategy was amended/accelerated and, that Cummings (who I’m not particularly a fan of) wanted a full lockdown if London two weeks ago. but hey, those things don’t quite fit with the article. Worth also remembering that articles such as these are based on knowing/insight into a fraction of the conversations, data etc being shared at senior level. These authors might well ultimately be correct but as I say, only time will tell. In the meantime I’d rather be following advice from a Chris Witty of this world, rather than a professor of risk engineering (may be ill be proven wrong in due course though)

Ps read about this earlier, might be useful for Hills and others with symptoms to sign up even belatedly I guess (it’s a C-19 symptom tracker set up by ICL COVID Symptom Tracker) - Nick worth having the link as a sticky thread ??

Very noticeable that you leave out Patrick Vallance, when for a week on here it was Whitty and Vallance that were going to singlehandedly save planet earth. Vallance now quietly dropped, and it’s Chris Whitty who is the saviour.

Also noticeable that once again it seems to be important to “do better than other countries”.

North Korea would love to sign you up for propaganda purposes if you are seriously able to say that our initial steps were successful with a straight face. There will be a public enquiry into our initial steps, which were woeful, inadequate and laughable if it weren’t for the fact people were dying.

Are you the Conservative Party press officer.

 

[Astute]

Only time will the what actions/measures etc have worked or not. Nassim appears to have conveniently forgotten the initial steps/strategy that gave us a head start over certain European countries. Also, the fact that by basing our decisions on modelling/remodelling the strategy was amended/accelerated and, that Cummings (who I’m not particularly a fan of) wanted a full lockdown if London two weeks ago. but hey, those things don’t quite fit with the article.

And that is the problem. So many people want to put their views across. And when someone points out something they always find an excuse.

So far we still don't know which direction this will go in. But we have many that know what will happen.....

 

[clint van damme]

Japan is interesting - I suspect it’s culture of natural social distancing may actually prove to be a factor that worked in their favour

Never been to Japan but from what I've heard there is also a culture of following instructions to the letter so probably no one thought the introduction of social distancing was the que to gather in a big mob somewhere.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

He was overruled. It was in a Sunday Times article which also mentioned him being happy for old people to die (probably not quite accurate !!!)

London appears to be adhering to the latest measures (from what I’ve heard) so hopefully won’t be necessary but i do think stricter measures might have to be implemented in the big cities

You can see a video on YouTube of Dominic Cummings addressing a group, and saying that it’s true that Tories don’t really care about the NHS and that they don’t really care about ‘poor people’.

In fact here it is.
Dominic Cummings said Tory MPs do not care about poor people or NHS

But I’m sure it was just a joke.

 

[Astute]

All valid points but it must also be noted that every country has their own Chris Witty equivalent.

I've seen that Cummings wanted London in lockdown earlier but has that been confirmed and if so do we know where the hold up was?

Things must be put in place for it to work. Look at the BBQ incident yesterday in Coventry. They know we are not in a proper lockdown yet as it hasn't been passed as law. People need to know about financial matters. Companies need to know if they are to continue or shut. Everyone needs to know what the penalty is for not doing as instructed.

 

[Wyken Sky Blue]

Coronavirus UK: Patient zero 'is Sussex IT worker, 50 | Daily Mail Online

Absolutely disgraceful from the Daily Mail

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[Grendel]

Very noticeable that you leave out Patrick Vallance, when for a week on here it was Whitty and Vallance that were going to singlehandedly save planet earth. Vallance now quietly dropped, and it’s Chris Whitty who is the saviour.

Also noticeable that once again it seems to be important to “do better than other countries”.

North Korea would love to sign you up for propaganda purposes if you are seriously able to say that our initial steps were successful with a straight face. There will be a public enquiry into our initial steps, which were woeful, inadequate and laughable if it weren’t for the fact people were dying.

Are you the Conservative Party press officer.

Our phase 1 strategy was successful - people are dying across all of the west - will there be enquiries in every other country as well?

 

[djr8369]

Still at work here and now have a letter to show the police as to why I am on the roads. Don't know if that's the business being cautious or whether they have been advised that the police will be more stringent.

 

[Astute]

Ah, so you didn’t understand it. Got ya.

In a nutshell during an outbreak per cap numbers distort against small countries. At the stage we are at all outbreaks grow in the same way so absolute numbers are best.

Also a virus outbreak is not a function of lifestyle or healthcare so the usual reasons for per cap figures for comparability don’t count.

Explain how per capita distorts against small countries.

The numbers can go for or against. But you make out it can only be against. You must agree with this person for some reason.......

Switzerland have been acknowledged as having one of the worse rates in Europe. Have you an excuse for this?

 

[Colin Steins Smile]

I see today many construction companies are shutting down to keep their workers safe which will help.

HS2 isn't shutting down round here. The workers there are definitely not self isolating, they are holding meetings and briefings with 10+ persons.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Very noticeable that you leave out Patrick Vallance, when for a week on here it was Whitty and Vallance that were going to singlehandedly save planet earth. Vallance now quietly dropped, and it’s Chris Whitty who is the saviour.

Also noticeable that once again it seems to be important to “do better than other countries”.

North Korea would love to sign you up for propaganda purposes if you are seriously able to say that our initial steps were successful with a straight face. There will be a public enquiry into our initial steps, which were woeful, inadequate and laughable if it weren’t for the fact people were dying.

Are you the Conservative Party press officer.

Vallance hasn’t been dropped has he ?! I’ll happy to amend and say both, the only reason I mentioned Witty solely is I know he’s an epidemiologist

I was referring to our trace and track methods at the early stages (getting people to call 111 rather than going into doctors surgeries, getting them to self isolate and those they’d been into contact with) I presume these had a positive impact looking at the dates of the first/early cases and then the delayed spread after this. The actions taken following is what I think you are referring to ie not starting a lockdown sooner, which I’m sure will be looked into.

Ps No need for the other stuff

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Our phase 1 strategy was successful - people are dying across all of the west - will there be enquiries in every other country as well?

Typical Tories. “Would you rather be in Italy?”

 

[djr8369]

Vallance hasn’t been dropped has he ?! I’ll happy to amend and say both, the only reason I mentioned Witty solely is I know he’s an epidemiologist

I was referring to our trace and track methods at the early stages (getting people to call 111 rather than going into doctors surgeries, getting them to self isolate and those they’d been into contact with) I presume these had a positive impact looking at the dates of the first/early cases and then spread after this. The actions taken following is what I think you are referring to ie not starting a lockdown sooner

Ps No need for the other stuff

I think those measures have probably bought us 2-3 weeks but they haven't changed the trajectory like in some Asian countries who were more thorough.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Vallance hasn’t been dropped has he ?! I’ll happy to amend and say both, the only reason I mentioned Witty solely is I know he’s an epidemiologist

I was referring to our trace and track methods at the early stages (getting people to call 111 rather than going into doctors surgeries, getting them to self isolate and those they’d been into contact with) I presume these had a positive impact looking at the dates of the first/early cases and then the delayed spread after this. The actions taken following is what I think you are referring to ie not starting a lockdown sooner, which I’m sure will be looked into.

Ps No need for the other stuff

You are trying to rewrite history.

 

[better days]

Disappointing to read a few negative point scoring posts recently
I am an optimist by nature and find encouragement in the huge number of volunteers who have rushed to help and the breakneck speed at which Dyson and other British engineers have stepped up to manufacture respirarators from scratch
I also know from personal experience that respirarators are being picked up right now from private labs all over the country to be ready for use by the NHS
Let's leave the blame game until the emergency has passed

 

[Ring Of Steel]

HS2 isn't shutting down round here. The workers there are definitely not self isolating, they are holding meetings and briefings with 10+ persons.

Correct. But things like that don’t count.

 

[Spurs 'City Away Kit' Kit]

After 3 months with no real booze my liver will explode

No 'real booze'?? Have you resorted to making moonshine in your toilet?

 

[Grendel]

Typical Tories. “Would you rather be in Italy?”

No I’m asking if you think the whole of the west should be investigated - are you drinking early? In one of those “closed” pubs?

 

[Astute]

Still at work here and now have a letter to show the police as to why I am on the roads. Don't know if that's the business being cautious or whether they have been advised that the police will be more stringent.

When it is made law yes it will be important. That should be today....tomorrow at the latest. Then we will have to see what procedures they put in place to show why we are not at home.

At least the fines will start as minimal. Then they will be put up with the excuse that people are ignoring the advice still.

On a side note.....France made an amendment on the forms to be filled out. You now have to put the time you leave the house and must be back within the hour. And they are stopping you from using pencils in most areas.

It takes the wife over 15 minutes to get to her local supermarket. She has less than 30 minutes shopping. Queuing at the till could make her late and get her a fine. The lowest fine is now €135.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I think those measures have probably bought us 2-3 weeks but they haven't changed the trajectory like in some Asian countries who were more thorough.

They were what I was referring to though djr. I’ve highlighted/questioned in other posts whether we best utilised this time wisely (only time will tell) but the point was valid in relation to the article that appeared to ignore it altogether

 

[Otis]

Japan is interesting - I suspect it’s culture of natural social distancing may actually prove to be a factor that worked in their favour

And by the same token, could Italy and Spain have had it worse because they are a bit more huggy/kiss on the cheek types for greetings?

 

[tisza]

Coronavirus UK: Patient zero 'is Sussex IT worker, 50 | Daily Mail Online

Absolutely disgraceful from the Daily Mail

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"The Bland family have not been tested for coronavirus, but if their results came back positive it means the virus hit UK shores a month earlier than thought."

 

[Grendel]

And by the same token, could Italy and Spain have had it worse because they are a bit more huggy/kiss on the cheek types for greetings?

Yes possibly

Japan is very naturally reserved - they keep distance, from orderly queues and like their own space. The Spanish and Italian cultures are the opposite

 

[Skybluefaz]

And by the same token, could Italy and Spain have had it worse because they are a bit more huggy/kiss on the cheek types for greetings?

I guess you have a valid point. These cultural differences must have had a significant impact.