EFL to end season this week - City likely to be promoted (32 Viewers)

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Feels like this is never gonna end, is it both votes next Tuesday or 1?

I posted yesterday it was both but Dutchman posted a link to an article which states that may not necessarily be the case. Fuck knows when it will all end. It can't drag on for too much longer surely?
 

bawtryneal

Well-Known Member
Another comment from yesterdays conversations was that the vast majority of League 1 teams have furloughed players and staff and no way will they un furlough ( unless in play offs) before July 1st. In the case of the two teams I mentioned in earlier post and also my understanding at CCFC is to return to training 3rd week in July, for new season, with a view to new season starting BCD on or around 10th September. Whilst no decision made by EFL this is the general feeling amongst Championship clubs. They are budgeting for BCD until Januray 1st 2021
 

Frostie

Well-Known Member
The problem with her margin of error is they seem to have picked three years as that's how you end up with Tranmere being safe. Only checked a couple of seasons prior to that but that saw the teams in the relegation places at the point at which this season has stopped relegated.

They claimed they had modelled the data multiple times using different years but have failed to provide that data or answer the question of why 3 years.

I've asked her on Twitter multiple times & best I could get was this:



Smells fishy to me. The competition has been running for 130 years, why pick 3?
Why not go back to introduction of 3 points for a win in 1981?
 

mr_monkey

Well-Known Member
I've asked her on Twitter multiple times & best I could get was this:



Smells fishy to me. The competition has been running for 130 years, why pick 3?
Why not go back to introduction of 3 points for a win in 1981?


She is doing what any owner in her position would and should do and try and get her club to stay up if she has the opportunity to. Is it morally correct or accurate? Absolutely not.... But the way the EFL have been she has every right to give it a go as she has nothing to lose. It's absolute nonsense and will get nowhere but she is just doing whatever she can for her club to stay up
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
"Nope. Make it 10 years if you like. It doesn’t change the picture. We had to pick a point to average off and 3 was as good as any. Short enough to be relevant, long enough to be statistically valid. And the methodology was praised by an independent professional statistician"

Someone who should be handing their degree back.

No one with any sense on how to do this would say this is a plausible idea.
 
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Terry_dactyl

Well-Known Member
She is doing what any owner in her position would and should do and try and get her club to stay up if she has the opportunity to. Is it morally correct or accurate? Absolutely not.... But the way the EFL have been she has every right to give it a go as she has nothing to lose. It's absolute nonsense and will get nowhere but she is just doing whatever she can for her club to stay up
I might be completely wrong but with the little I’ve read about things, and while it might be frustrating for people, it seems that the EFL are playing this right. It seems that If they came and made a ruling straight away they’d run the risk of leaving themselves open to all sorts of legal ramifications in the future. From what I’ve read it would appear that in order to make things as right as they can be, the decision should come from the clubs. Also, it seems to me the EFL are strong supporters of PPG and are not particularly interested in completing the season.
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member
"Nope. Make it 10 years if you like. It doesn’t change the picture. We had to pick a point to average off and 3 was as good as any. Short enough to be relevant, long enough to be statistically valid. And the methodology was praised by an independent professional statistician"

Someone who should be handing their degree back.

No one with any sense on how to do this would say this is a plausible idea.
If they've run it for 5, 10, 20 years stick the data up and show it doesn't make any difference to shut people up - easy.

Anyway she's created her own problem now. Claimed that was the greatest plan ever and that independent experts agreed. Now they've scrapped that and come up with something else. By definition if she claims the first way proposed was the best possible option then this new option is worse.
 

Frostie

Well-Known Member
I might be completely wrong but with the little I’ve read about things, and while it might be frustrating for people, it seems that the EFL are playing this right. It seems that If they came and made a ruling straight away they’d run the risk of leaving themselves open to all sorts of legal ramifications in the future. From what I’ve read it would appear that in order to make things as right as they can be, the decision should come from the clubs. Also, it seems to me the EFL are strong supporters of PPG and are not particularly interested in completing the season.

Agree completely.
The EFL deserve a lot of stick for a lot of different things but on this scenario it is out of their hands to an extent.

What they definitely could/should have done better was with the timeframe. As soon as it became clear that completing the season was problematic, they should have put forward their PPG framework & asked for suggestions then. This should have been done back in April when National League confirmed their cancellation.
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
If they've run it for 5, 10, 20 years stick the data up and show it doesn't make any difference to shut people up - easy.

Anyway she's created her own problem now. Claimed that was the greatest plan ever and that independent experts agreed. Now they've scrapped that and come up with something else. By definition if she claims the first way proposed was the best possible option then this new option is worse.

Just having a wild stab in the dark here on the new proposal.

Does it involve Tranmere staying up and designed to garner as many votes as possible in the league.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
Just having a wild stab in the dark here on the new proposal.

Does it involve Tranmere staying up and designed to garner as many votes as possible in the league.
yep. Tranmere stay up and clubs write a letter to PL asking for 5 million each as a one-off gift :)
 

MusicDating

Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
I can just picture the Tranmere board sat there trying to work out what methodology they can propose for them to stay up...
Board - 'What about unweighted PPG?'
Stats guy - 'Nope, still relegated'
Board - 'FM2020?'
Stats guy - 'Nope, still down'
Board - 'Glicko-2?'
Stats guy - 'Couldn't get hold of Philosorapter'
<5 hours later>
Board - 'Monkey tennis results over the last 3 years?'
Stats guy - '<sigh>Let just go with that...'
 

Specs WT-R75

Well-Known Member
The problem with her margin of error is they seem to have picked three years as that's how you end up with Tranmere being safe. Only checked a couple of seasons prior to that but that saw the teams in the relegation places at the point at which this season has stopped relegated.

They claimed they had modelled the data multiple times using different years but have failed to provide that data or answer the question of why 3 years.

Tranmere are 3 points adrift with a game in hand. Pretty much any margin of error is going to make it reasonable that they had a chance of staying up. It's pretty obvious they had a reasonable chance without any statistical models.

They didn't pick 3 years to keep Tranmere up, they picked it as a reasonable number (hard to argue with).

Anyway, all roads lead to us being promoted, I just want this shit show over!
 

jordan210

Well-Known Member


Updated proposal


the relevant part

League 1:
The application of the PPG outcome sees Wycombe replace Peterborough in the play-off

positions.

Applying the MFE outcome sees Wycombe in the play offs but along with 3 other Clubs (Rotherham, Peterborough, Sunderland & Doncaster) who are included as potential play-off candidates. This results in 8 Clubs eligible for play-offs for two promotion spots. Coventry City are automatically promoted.

Tranmere would not be relegated.
 

Philosoraptor

Well-Known Member
I can just picture the Tranmere board sat there trying to work out what methodology they can propose for them to stay up...
Board - 'What about unweighted PPG?'
Stats guy - 'Nope, still relegated'
Board - 'FM2020?'
Stats guy - 'Nope, still down'
Board - 'Glicko-2?'
Stats guy - 'Couldn't get hold of Philosorapter'
<5 hours later>
Board - 'Monkey tennis results over the last 3 years?'
Stats guy - '<sigh>Let just go with that...'

That made me chuckle.

Even when a few or us did all this a decade or two ago, we all had handles rather than using our real names.

Never been one to blow my own trumpet here but not many people can say they ran the internal chess servers of five National Chess Federations.

Glicko-2 being just a part of the madness.
 

covmark

Well-Known Member
Whilst I'm happy that it looks like we're going up, there's a big part of me that is gutted that we won't be able to celebrate our achievement with the players. Especially those that will be leaving at the end of the season. Walsh, McCallum and O'Hare have been superb for us and really deserve a huge amount of gratitude for their efforts.
If in the future they return with their respective clubs. I really hope they get the reception and the thanks they deserve.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
 

Frostie

Well-Known Member
From my brief scan through it's not changed a great deal despite Nicola Palios' rumblings...

If anything it's actually even more bonkers
& I am sure it will be laughed out of the place.

Claims that it could be adopted for League 1 only if desired & not Championship & League 2 but can't see EFL board or clubs agreeing that.
In their proposal there would be no Auto promotion in those 2 leagues, just giant Playoffs!?

We are the only team in the country who'd earn Automatic promotion :emoji_laughing:
 

wingy

Well-Known Member
I can just picture the Tranmere board sat there trying to work out what methodology they can propose for them to stay up...
Board - 'What about unweighted PPG?'
Stats guy - 'Nope, still relegated'
Board - 'FM2020?'
Stats guy - 'Nope, still down'
Board - 'Glicko-2?'
Stats guy - 'Couldn't get hold of Philosorapter'
<5 hours later>
Board - 'Monkey tennis results over the last 3 years?'
Stats guy - '<sigh>Let just go with that...'
They really need the raptor and Glicko
 

jordan210

Well-Known Member


The EFL Board met today and considered a number of proposals submitted by EFL Clubs in respect of proposed amendments to EFL Regulations in order to determine what will happen in the event the 2019/20 season is curtailed in any EFL Division.

This now brings an end to a comprehensive consultation phase and Clubs have today received formal notice of the meeting which will now take place on Tuesday 9 June 2020.

At that meeting Clubs will consider a number of different proposals from both Clubs and the Board of the EFL.
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
the relevant part

League 1:
The application of the PPG outcome sees Wycombe replace Peterborough in the play-off

positions.

Applying the MFE outcome sees Wycombe in the play offs but along with 3 other Clubs (Rotherham, Peterborough, Sunderland & Doncaster) who are included as potential play-off candidates. This results in 8 Clubs eligible for play-offs for two promotion spots. Coventry City are automatically promoted.

Tranmere would not be relegated.
MFE still seems lie an "if and buts" theory. Teams going to be counting pts lost through obvious refereeing errors next?
Surely the system gets over-complicated as well as wouldn't the Championship have to vote on whether to add an extra team under one of the options?
 

MatthewWallis

Well-Known Member


So it seems they’ve considering more than just PPG/Carry on. We’re gonna finally get a vote but with multiple options probably no chance of getting 51% straight away
 

Alkhen

Well-Known Member
What a fucking farce, Tranmere look like right babies. Embarrassing to cook something so convoluted and self-serving. They have no shame
 

MatthewWallis

Well-Known Member


So they’re gonna allow a vote on no relegation? I can’t see how they would promote if there’s no relegation?
 

chiefdave

Well-Known Member


So they’re gonna allow a vote on no relegation? I can’t see how they would promote if there’s no relegation?

Could just mean that's what various clubs have submitted. If that's the case doesn't mean any / all will get to the stage of being voted on.
 

COVKIDSNEVERQUIT

Well-Known Member
So now the vote is Tuesday......

I guess depending if they send the papers today

giphy.gif
 

Warwickhunt

Well-Known Member
they will not rest until they get the season null and voided if you ask me!
 

Warwickhunt

Well-Known Member
would we have had all this shite if Peterboro and Sunderland were in the playoff spots and Tranmere had played their game in hand?
 

OffenhamSkyBlue

Well-Known Member
Whatever happens (and i mean whatever), this kind of freak show has to end. The only way they can do that is by a change in the rules for the EFL and Prem which sets out a contingency plan for what happens if a season cannot be completed.
My suggestion would be that there must be a date cut-off for the end of any season. In my view this should be 31st May.
If, by that time, all clubs have completed more than 75% of their fixtures, the season is declared complete, and the points per game are calculated and positions allocated accordingly.
There should be old-skool straight promotion and relegation with no play-offs, as there MAY be no guarantee that they could be played.
If ALL clubs have NOT played 75% of their games by 31st May, the season is declared null and void. No champions, promotion or relegation.
I suppose you could argue with the last point that someone who is sure-fire on for relegation could postpone their 33rd match for some made-up reason and get the season voided, but i think that would be unlikely (unless you're a Sunderland fan).
 

tisza

Well-Known Member
Whatever happens (and i mean whatever), this kind of freak show has to end. The only way they can do that is by a change in the rules for the EFL and Prem which sets out a contingency plan for what happens if a season cannot be completed.
My suggestion would be that there must be a date cut-off for the end of any season. In my view this should be 31st May.
If, by that time, all clubs have completed more than 75% of their fixtures, the season is declared complete, and the points per game are calculated and positions allocated accordingly.
There should be old-skool straight promotion and relegation with no play-offs, as there MAY be no guarantee that they could be played.
If ALL clubs have NOT played 75% of their games by 31st May, the season is declared null and void. No champions, promotion or relegation.
I suppose you could argue with the last point that someone who is sure-fire on for relegation could postpone their 33rd match for some made-up reason and get the season voided, but i think that would be unlikely (unless you're a Sunderland fan).
Needs a fixed framework. This pantomime gone on long enough.
 

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