Evo1883
Well-Known Member
I've seen many conflicting arguments (already) that the deal is worth more than previous and that its worth less... I have no fucking clue what to believe... The beauty of twitter.
The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (189 Viewers)
- Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
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I've seen many conflicting arguments (already) that the deal is worth more than previous and that its worth less... I have no fucking clue what to believe... The beauty of twitter.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I can't believe it's worth more, I may be wrong.
But one deal gives you access to a market of 400 million and the other a market of 60 million. Who would you give the better deal to?
Though the big win would be some guarantees regarding the future of Japanese car plants in the UK though I doubt they come under the umbrella of these negotiations.
Some sort of arrangement was reached with these early on I think.
Sweeteners?
What does WTO terms bring to the table in comparison for unfettered trade?
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I'm not so sure it was. Was speaking to a General manager in our company who has a plant that supply Toyota and hes concerned.
I'd imagine going WTO route would mean tariffs on cars exported to Europe.
Yeah I meant assurance of some sort to not pull out immediately after the vote .
Would have been on the assumption of a deal being reached.
Does the EU deal with Japan negate the advantages of British factories?
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
I doubt the EU deal negates their advantage, what will do is tariffs to export from UK to Europe. Hopefully that's avoided.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
I"m not sure we're going to get significantly better deals than we did as part of the EU, which is of course what was promised. Pretty much as soon as the result was announced that started being rowed back and talk changed to getting deals as good as the EU which all seems to make the whole exercise a bit pointless.
A while ago when we were in talks with Canada it was leaked in their press that they were very wary of doing a deal with us that would be viewed by the EU as giving us an advantage over them as the EU was a more important trading partner than the UK. That might be an issue we run into in other places.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Apparently it’s going to boost $15B in trade. I assume that is total in both directions. Could just mirror what we would have had had we stopped in the EU, that was certainly the original talk around the deal. I’m sure someone other than the government will explain it in more detail.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
A £15bn boost would be incredible work by the government to be fair as according to the ONS trade in 2019 totalled £31.4bn which was a record year.
Imagine it will impact the car industry significantly, will be interested to see Grendel's take on the deal given his experience in that area.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
There is one point worth making. Maybe two. When we initially joined the common market it was hailed as a great opportunity for British manufacturing, motor industry specifically as is this trade deal. The problem was it also opened up the market for European manufacturers into the U.K. and a lot of what they were making was A) better and B) with the barrier of tariffs removed also now competitive. It in many ways had the opposite effect, especially true for the motor industry.
Now, Japan makes cars and arguably the best cars in the world. What does this mean for JLR’s competitiveness against Lexus for instance? What does this mean for British jobs at Japanese owned factories when A) they’re already under pressure from Brexit especially a no deal Brexit and B) where’s the incentive in keeping UK factories open when you can import the same product tariff free from Japan.
Now, Japan makes cars and arguably the best cars in the world. What does this mean for JLR’s competitiveness against Lexus for instance? What does this mean for British jobs at Japanese owned factories when A) they’re already under pressure from Brexit especially a no deal Brexit and B) where’s the incentive in keeping UK factories open when you can import the same product tariff free from Japan.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
To be honest they are not competitors And I don’t know a lot about them - Lexus have never taken off across Europe and only accessed the us with massively cheap pricing to start with - it might save Nissan here as I think they are getting out of Europe everywhere aren’t they?
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
I believe its 15 billion over 10 years... So it's 1.5 billion A year... We ofcourse need to make many many MANY more trade deals to see the overall effect on GDP
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
it makes up between 0.7 and 2 percent of lost trade and mirrors the japan eu deal
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
So basically no nett gain. Damage limitation.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Even the phasing out of auto tariffs is identical to the EU-Japan trade deal.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Posh bird again for Alan
Come on, why try to turn something relatively positive into a negative ?!!
The statement indicates it goes beyond the EU/Japan trade agreement in certain areas (financial services, food etc). I’ve not studied both trade deals so don’t know if this is true or not...sure it’ll come out in due course but wouldn’t be surprised as the EU is likely to be more protectionist (in relation to certain sectors) than ourselves.
Still hope we reach a decent trade agreement with EU but time is running out. Hopefully both sides see sense
The statement indicates it goes beyond the EU/Japan trade agreement in certain areas (financial services, food etc). I’ve not studied both trade deals so don’t know if this is true or not...sure it’ll come out in due course but wouldn’t be surprised as the EU is likely to be more protectionist (in relation to certain sectors) than ourselves.
Still hope we reach a decent trade agreement with EU but time is running out. Hopefully both sides see sense
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Looking at some articles it does look like it’s possibly going to save the Nissan plant which is a huge boost
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Hopefully. As much as those Mackems annoy me I wouldn't like to see the area dealt a blow like that.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
It's pretty much a carbon copy of the current eu japan trade deal
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
I'll give them this though the better deal on stilton cheese (a market worth a whole 108k in japan) is a new level of wtf
Final bit of positive(ish) news is growth of 6.6% in July announced today. kind of as expected but I’m hoping with Aug staycations hopefully another decent month which will mean overall the year will end up better than expected (during early stages of outbreak). I remember back in May BoE estimated negative 14%, now hopefully around negative 8%. Any better than that will be great news (if done safely ish) compared to where we thought we might be.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
" According to the Department for International Trade, the deal will increase UK GDP by 0.07% – or £1.5bn – after 15 years. "
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
On what basis? No tariff on imported parts? You'd have to think that tariff / barrier-free access to the European market is still a pretty big ticket for Nissan in Sunderland
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Yep and this has been said by the Japanese.
I was beginning to think that myself, moreso with regards to the JIT imports area. Won’t help Sunderland much if the tracks are halted with lorries full of equipment to be assembled in Sunderland stuck at one of the Farage Garages
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Yes. The UK government has gone public with this but it is only an agreement in principle, which it's not hard to imagine is predicated on continued access to the EU market. It gives the Tories a reason to row back from no deal that they can sell to the public.
D
Deleted member 5849
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I thought government had given commitments to save the plant beforehand anyway.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Seen a few suggestions on line that it’s agreed in principle and will be signed so long as the GFA isn’t damaged by a certain bill being debated in Parliament next week. Can’t see it actually being reported though.
Liquid Gold
Well-Known Member
I have to say I just dropped in to see how this thread was still going and expected Astute and Brighton to be at each other. It's a lot more pleasant than it used to be.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
It’s walking a tightrope. It’s been teetering from saved to being in danger (especially from a hard Brexit) all year.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
Don't worry about the car industry mate (turnover 80 plus billion), we're taking back control of our waters for the fishing industry (turnover 1.5 billion).
All about priorities.
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