Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It’s entirely correct and worked in the primary. Biden is an incoherent mess every time he speaks-if he hides he wins
US presidential Election 2020 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Evo1883
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It’s entirely correct and worked in the primary. Biden is an incoherent mess every time he speaks-if he hides he wins
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Trump will need to win them all to have a chance.
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
The Iowa poll is a mess, it suggests that Trump will win a majority of non white votes and by 15% in democratic strongholds,
Axelrod has speaking about this, looks like something has happened to their methodology
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
As said elsewhere Trump’s best case, where he wins every state he’s within 5% or less, sees him get 279. It needs a miracle bigger than 2016.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
It will be closer than we think. Largely for two reasons:
1) A lot of people won't admit voting Trump because they are scared of the cancel culture consequences.
2) Most of the media want Biden to win, so it is exaggerated in his favour.
I've seen many big cities in the US having their shops being boarded up already. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump does a lot better than is being made out. If he does then it is definitely going to be baby tantrum time.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Even if he does better than expected he’ll still lose.
And if it's the other way?
How do you see that going, like some church jamboree?
Edit:- for ESB's post
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I worked out best case scenarios for each candidate. Trump would get 279 (including him keeping Pennsylvania where he is down by 5) and Biden would get over 400. Most likely Biden gets 300-350 I think.
Houchens Head
Fairly well known member from Malvern
I reckon it'll be a 1-1 draw. VAR heavily involved!
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
This is an interesting, informed and non partisan story on the chances of both candidates
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
I think Trump has a loyal voter base. They will definitely turn out. The question will be how high the turnout is - the higher the turnout I feel it gives Biden the edge.
I half get your point about the media - that said in the UK the BBC are talking it up like it’s neck and neck, and there isn’t really much evidence around to show that.
For those of you convinced the polls are somehow clueless - if they were off by the same margin they were in 2016, the NYT projects Biden would win 335 electoral college votes.
Election night itself could look pretty bad for Biden - the swing states that will report results the earliest happen to be the ones that are more likely to fall to Trump (Florida, Arizona, North Carolina). If Biden wins either of those it should be over pretty quickly. But even if he doesn't, his numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are staggering - far beyond anything Hillary Clinton had at this stage. Those states may not have final results until next weekend because of their bizarre mail-in ballots rules, but it's hard to see Trump winning all of them. Biden could lose every other swing state and still take the White House with those three.
Ultimately it will come down to Pennsylvania, which Trump cannot win the election without. No respected poll has him winning. At this stage, his best shout there genuinely seems to be winning other states early on to make the race close, and therefore persuading establishment Republicans and key cabinet members they should back him on his inevitable claims of voter fraud. If he doesn't have any momentum and it looks like a done deal for Biden, they'll quickly abandon him and leave him to complain on Twitter for months before he slopes off in January (I would guess overseas). Especially if the Senate itself flips Democrat (which also looks likely at this stage)
Election night itself could look pretty bad for Biden - the swing states that will report results the earliest happen to be the ones that are more likely to fall to Trump (Florida, Arizona, North Carolina). If Biden wins either of those it should be over pretty quickly. But even if he doesn't, his numbers in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are staggering - far beyond anything Hillary Clinton had at this stage. Those states may not have final results until next weekend because of their bizarre mail-in ballots rules, but it's hard to see Trump winning all of them. Biden could lose every other swing state and still take the White House with those three.
Ultimately it will come down to Pennsylvania, which Trump cannot win the election without. No respected poll has him winning. At this stage, his best shout there genuinely seems to be winning other states early on to make the race close, and therefore persuading establishment Republicans and key cabinet members they should back him on his inevitable claims of voter fraud. If he doesn't have any momentum and it looks like a done deal for Biden, they'll quickly abandon him and leave him to complain on Twitter for months before he slopes off in January (I would guess overseas). Especially if the Senate itself flips Democrat (which also looks likely at this stage)
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Likely neither. Postal vote counting apparently doesn't start until after votes on the day are counted to ensure no-one votes twice. Also could handily see Trump claim a win, postal votes are fraudulent and shouldn't be counted. So likely to be contested in the courts for a while as well.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
No-one is more likely to react like a baby and have a tantrum than Trump is. Or tantrump if you will.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
US Election 2020: Missouri officials cover noose near polling booths
Democrats complained that the object could intimidate black voters, just days before elections.
www.bbc.co.uk
Apart from the obvious horrific headline story the bit that caught my eye was the North carolina bit. Police pepperspraying people at a rally to promote voting. In the self-proclaimed greatest democracy on Earth.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
US Election 2020: Missouri officials cover noose near polling booths
Democrats complained that the object could intimidate black voters, just days before elections.www.bbc.co.uk
Apart from the obvious horrific headline story the bit that caught my eye was the North carolina bit. Police pepperspraying people at a rally to promote voting. In the self-proclaimed greatest democracy on Earth.
Let’s see who the real snowflakes are when the orange one loses
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
If this is any indication Trump won't go quietly if he loses. Thankfully this attempt was thrown out by the courts.
edition.cnn.com
Texas Supreme Court denies GOP-led petition seeking to invalidate 120,000 votes in Houston area
The Texas Supreme Court denied a petition Sunday by a group of Republicans seeking to invalidate nearly 127,000 drive-thru votes in Harris County, while a similar case awaits a decision in federal court just two days before Election Day.
edition.cnn.com
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
If this is any indication Trump won't go quietly if he loses. Thankfully this attempt was thrown out by the courts.
Texas Supreme Court denies GOP-led petition seeking to invalidate 120,000 votes in Houston area
The Texas Supreme Court denied a petition Sunday by a group of Republicans seeking to invalidate nearly 127,000 drive-thru votes in Harris County, while a similar case awaits a decision in federal court just two days before Election Day.
They pulled this shit to deny Stacey Abrams a win in Georgia, it has precedence
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
That's bullshit.
If Biden loses, the civil unrest would be a hell of a lot worse than the other way around.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Armed Hicks surrounded Bidens bus and “escorted” out of an area of Texas yesterday.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Yes, and? Was anyone killed, did anything get looted? Was there even any violence?
I don't agree with it, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to what Biden has on his side with BLM and Antifa. They'll be countrywide riots if Trump wins.
To even try and say Biden supporters are more peaceful is delusional. They're not even comparable on the same scale.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
It was an act of violence and intimidation.
Not sure why you think I was saying anyone is less violent. Just pointing out that Trump has his own lynch mob.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
How, look at the polls. Look at the leads Biden has in demographics he won in 2016. Trump is only 6 points up with White males and he won that by 20 points last time.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
For someone who says Twitter is a cesspit you seem to get a lot of talking points from off there
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Get off Twitter mate. “Antifa”
I always wonder why some people are against something that just means anti fascist
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Theyve watched one too many Portland videos.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately we'll only get to see one or the other.
However we have precedence of Trump winning. I forgot that the entire country burnt down in response that night.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
The lunatics have taken over the asylum.
Have none of you seen the utter state of looting and rioting in the last year over in America?
I guess we will have to see who wins the election, but I don't think Trump will get the floor wiped with him as much as some think.
Have none of you seen the utter state of looting and rioting in the last year over in America?
I guess we will have to see who wins the election, but I don't think Trump will get the floor wiped with him as much as some think.
It’sabatch87
Well-Known Member
They only see what they want to see!!