Just been reading an interesting article about how shorters profit from the robinhood herd.
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The most recent study,
“Attention Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users,” was published in October and examined trading activity of Robinhood from May 2, 2018, to Aug. 13, 2020. They particularly studied “extreme herding events,” where Robinhood traders crowded into particular stocks.
They concluded that during these extreme “herding events,” “the top 0.5% of stocks bought by Robinhood each day experience return reversals on average of approximately 5% over the next month whereas the more extreme herding events have reversals of approximately 9%.”
The conclusion: “Large increases in Robinhood users are often accompanied by large price spikes and are followed by reliably negative returns.”
Why did that happen? The authors noted that most Robinhood investors are inexperienced, so they tend to chase performance. The layout of the app, which draws attention to the most active stocks, also causes traders to buy stocks “more aggressively than other retail investors.”
Finally, the ease of use of the site, and the fact that it is commission-free, may also encourage trading. “As evidenced by turnover rates many times higher than at other brokerage firms, Robinhood users are more likely to be trading speculatively and less likely to be trading for reasons such as investing their retirement savings, liquidity demands, tax-loss selling, and rebalancing.”
Why do stocks that spike when Robinhood traders pile in so quickly drop off? In addition to reversion to the mean, the authors suggest that
short sellers are perfectly aware of Robinhood trading patterns. “These reversals seem to be well known as stocks Robinhood users herded into attracted significant short interest,” they wrote.
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who's shorting who?