Do you consider us safe? (6 Viewers)

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Johnnythespider

Johnnythespider

Well-Known Member
We should look to go undefeated until the end of the season, that will be enough i think, we are capable of doing it.
 
Esoterica

Esoterica

Well-Known Member
On Sunday, we will be expected to lose against Barnsley, Rotherham host Birmingham whose away form is still poor and Derby go to Blackburn who haven't won at home since January, Huddersfield travel to Forest which looks tougher but I could see them boring out a 0-0.

By Sunday evening it's not inconceivable that we will be back to 21st, 3 points ahead of Rotherham with their 2 games in hand. Yesterday was massive but there will still be twists and turns in this yet I feel.
 
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cc84cov

cc84cov

Well-Known Member
Plenty of football left to be played with more twists and turns to come these things usually end up going into that last day
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Esoterica said:
On Saturday, we will be expected to lose against Barnsley, Rotherham host Birmingham whose away form is still poor and Derby go to Blackburn who haven't won at home since January, Huddersfield travel to Forest which looks tougher but I could see them boring out a 0-0.

By Sunday evening it's not inconceivable that we will be back to 21st, 3 points ahead of Rotherham with their 2 games in hand. Yesterday was massive but there will still be twists and turns in this yet I feel.
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I can say with a high degree of confidence that we won't lose on Saturday, nor will Rotherham win.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Esoterica said:
Ah yeah, I'd put Saturday in the first part and then correctly Sunday in the second paragraph! But the point is still the same, so enjoy the rest of your Thursday Mr Pedantic. :p
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Of course, equally we could do a job on Barnsley, Birmingham maintain their recent good form and we're 9 points clear. Or we could both lose and the gap is the same with another game scratched off. In this league there's always a shock result around the corner.
 
K

Kingokings204

Well-Known Member
I think even 1 more win will do it personally. 50 points is certain to keep us up but I think 48 will be enough. Obviously we want as many as possible
 
S

SBT

Well-Known Member
Our worst five-game spell this season saw us get two points (Jan 30-Feb 17). Repeat that now, and that would require Rotherham to pick up eight from their last seven, which they've done several times this season. I think we'll be fine, but we're definitely not safe yet.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
SBT said:
Our worst five-game spell this season saw us get two points (Jan 30-Feb 17). Repeat that now, and that would require Rotherham to pick up eight from their last seven, which they've done several times this season. I think we'll be fine, but we're definitely not safe yet.
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We have now leapt up to 21st in the away league table, Huddersfield and Derby either side of us in that and both have 3 away in their remaining 5. I'd back us to win at least once more before the end all things being equal.
 
GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee

GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee

Well-Known Member
I don't think we are safe but also wouldn't be remotely surprised if 45 points is enough to stay up. As soon as we get to 50 I will feel it's done. I think it is extremely unlikely that all of Blues, Huddersfield, Derby and Rotherham reach 50 points. At this stage of the season anything can happen. Rotherham beat Blues and we lose to Barnsley and we're as in it as we have ever been. That said, Rotherham have averaged 1 point per game for 39 games this season, it's unlikely that they are going to significantly improve that in the remaining 7 games especially with some very tough fixtures. Our survival bizarrely could in theory hinge on Blackburn's form. They face Derby, Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Blues in their remaining five games.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee said:
I don't think we are safe but also wouldn't be remotely surprised if 45 points is enough to stay up. As soon as we get to 50 I will feel it's done. I think it is extremely unlikely that all of Blues, Huddersfield, Derby and Rotherham reach 50 points. At this stage of the season anything can happen. Rotherham beat Blues and we lose to Barnsley and we're as in it as we have ever been. That said, Rotherham have averaged 1 point per game for 39 games this season, it's unlikely that they are going to significantly improve that in the remaining 7 games especially with some very tough fixtures. Our survival bizarrely could in theory hinge on Blackburn's form. They face Derby, Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield, Rotherham and Blues in their remaining five games.
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In the space of a week Barnsley have us, Huddersfield and Rotherham. Agent @Barnsley working his magic hopefully.
 
GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee

GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
In the space of a week Barnsley have us, Huddersfield and Rotherham. Agent @Barnsley working his magic hopefully.
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I was really shocked by just how many of the teams left in it play each other. Obviously that could work two ways, as they are easier fixtures and someone is definitely getting points, but it also means that the total limit all those teams can reach is much lower.
I am including up to Preston in the scrap although they are probably safe. The fixtures remaining are:

Blackburn v Derby
Rotherham v Blues
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackburn
Derby v Preston
Derby v Blues
Huddersfield v Blackburn
Coventry v Preston
Rotherham v Blackburn
Huddersfield v Coventry
Derby v Sheffield Wednesday
Blackburn v Birmingham
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee said:
I was really shocked by just how many of the teams left in it play each other. Obviously that could work two ways, as they are easier fixtures and someone is definitely getting points, but it also means that the total limit all those teams can reach is much lower.
I am including up to Preston in the scrap although they are probably safe. The fixtures remaining are:

Blackburn v Derby
Rotherham v Blues
Sheffield Wednesday v Blackburn
Derby v Preston
Derby v Blues
Huddersfield v Blackburn
Coventry v Preston
Rotherham v Blackburn
Huddersfield v Coventry
Derby v Sheffield Wednesday
Blackburn v Birmingham
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PNE are home to Derby but yes, that will affect the safety threshold further. My realistic best case predictions have:

16th Cov 53 (lose to Barnsley, draw at Stoke and Hudd, beat PNE and Millwall)
17th PNE 52
18th Brum 52
19th Brizzle 51
20th Derby 47
21st Hudd 45
----------------------------------
22nd Rotherham 43
23rd Sheff W 42
24th Wycombe 36

Realistic worst case I think is drawing PNE and Millwall then losing the rest, in which case it'd be Derby, Hudd and us all on 47 and still requiring Rotherham to pick up another 4 points on top of what I've predicted. Somewhere in between those two takes us to 50.
 
Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
If Rotherham lose against Birmingham on Sunday, I’d consider them as good as relegated.

We’ve got to have our wits about us for Huddersfield away, that’s a game we could do with picking up a point.
 
JAM See

JAM See

Well-Known Member
One point against the colliers
Nil points against the potters
We'll thrash the shite of the Lilywhites
We'll terrorise the terriors
And the Lions will win fuck all.

Championship football next year. Guaranteed.
 
M

Magwitch1

Well-Known Member
Last season Charlton had 46 points with games to play, they finished on 46 points and were relegated one point less than Barnsley so no we are not safe but with three home games out of five surely even we can’t balls that up.
 
Mucca Mad Boys

Mucca Mad Boys

Well-Known Member
Esoterica said:
On Sunday, we will be expected to lose against Barnsley, Rotherham host Birmingham whose away form is still poor and Derby go to Blackburn who haven't won at home since January, Huddersfield travel to Forest which looks tougher but I could see them boring out a 0-0.

By Sunday evening it's not inconceivable that we will be back to 21st, 3 points ahead of Rotherham with their 2 games in hand. Yesterday was massive but there will still be twists and turns in this yet I feel.
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Equally, Rotherham’s home form is terrible. They’ve lost to us and Wycombe in recent weeks - relegation rivals and (before last night), 23rd and 24th in the form.

I’m not one to be complacent, but considering our home form is top half, I can’t see us getting relegated with 3 home games remaining, 2 of which are very winnable ties.

The likelihood is that a loss to Birmingham seals their fate. They’ve got some tough ties.
 
G

Gregbant

Well-Known Member
No chance, no one is safe in the pack, maybe Blackburn if they get their draw today and that goal difference
 
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