Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (205 Viewers)

[Deleted member 5849]

Nothing. It’s weird because it seems like vital info but I never see it mentioned. Maybe variants change everything? I am not a virologist.

I suspect it's needing enough time for strong hypotheses to be tested properly - and by definition of what you're looking for, that can take a fair old while. And information that proves to be wrong could be pretty bad wrt influencing peoples' behaviour.

 

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[Nick]

Lol

Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?

 

[fernandopartridge]

Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?

Oh give it a rest

 

[Nick]

Oh give it a rest

Is it taboo to ask now?

Which one is it?

 

[shmmeee]

Is it taboo to ask now?

Which one is it?

Nick we’ve been over this 1000 times.

Cause of death isn’t an exact science. COVID tends to make existing conditions worse. The most reliable way to know how many COVID is killing is excess deaths but even there we know lockdown reduced deaths in lots of other areas (e.g. car crashes) so even that will undercount.

What matters isnt “is this measure exactly right with no error” but “is this measure consistent”

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Our mate Piers is having fun.

 

[shmmeee]

Our mate Piers is having fun.

He should be arrested. Don’t care what for.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

He should be arrested. Don’t care what for.

'Being Piers Corbyn'.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Is it taboo to ask now?

Which one is it?

It's just a big coincidence that a lot of people with a positive covid test happen to die within 28 days of that test obviously

The reduction in the number of deaths due to the vaccine disproves the nonsense behind your conspiracy theory

 

[hill83]

Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?

Yes

 

[skybluetony176]

So herd immunity is impossible as you'll always have a significant percentage whose antibodies have dropped off (be it jabbed or having caught it previously).

The current approach is the correct one then, let's just get on with it?

It’s not impossible. It needs a large number of adults to grow the fuck up and get vaccinated. Hopefully then the scare stories regarding the delta variant prove to be incorrect and we don’t have to start vaccinating younger and younger children to take up the slack from “adults”.

 

[Ian1779]

So my daughter tested positive with Cov-ID 5 days ago (from school no less) Was particularly anxious as she is on immuno-suppressants and was told to shield throughout the first initial lockdown, and we have tried really hard to not expose her to the chance of getting it.

So far, and with fingers crossed, she is OK other than being a bit lacklustre, grumpy and a reduced sense of smell.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

So my daughter tested positive with Cov-ID 5 days ago (from school no less) Was particularly anxious as she is on immuno-suppressants and was told to shield throughout the first initial lockdown, and we have tried really hard to not expose her to the chance of getting it.

So far, and with fingers crossed, she is OK other than being a bit lacklustre, grumpy and a reduced sense of smell.

I don;t know if that deserves a like for the second bit, or a sad face for the first! I suppose overall it's a win so far(!)

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Which is it?

Deaths pretty much caused by it or deaths from people who had tested positive within the last 28 days?

We don’t have a figure for deaths caused by Covid other than number of deaths above the previous 5 year average. About 150000 on last counts.

The figure for those who’ve died having tested positive within the previous 28 days is the figure referred to each day

roughly 129000

We don’t ultimately know as one doesnt always know the one specific thing kills someone and also often many different aspects make up issues that lead to a loss of life

however I was shocked to find that 600000 people die in the uk each year! Although last year it was 698000mainly due to Covid 19

Even so that’s only (only) 14% increase

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

So my daughter tested positive with Cov-ID 5 days ago (from school no less) Was particularly anxious as she is on immuno-suppressants and was told to shield throughout the first initial lockdown, and we have tried really hard to not expose her to the chance of getting it.

So far, and with fingers crossed, she is OK other than being a bit lacklustre, grumpy and a reduced sense of smell.

Sounds like me always

 

[Ian1779]

I don;t know if that deserves a like for the second bit, or a sad face for the first! I suppose overall it's a win so far(!)

It’s a strange one - you spend time being terrified that she is more at risk (even though you don’t actually know how much for certain) and then it appears - so far at least - that her immune system can cope, even when it is suppressed.
She is in line to be vaccinated once they start the roll out to vulnerable kids… so wonder how that will work if she’s had it?

 

[CCFCSteve]

He should be arrested. Don’t care what for.

It’s in the genes

Sorry, couldn’t resist

Nothing. It’s weird because it seems like vital info but I never see it mentioned. Maybe variants change everything? I am not a virologist.

That’s what my unscientific mind thought as well, like different variants of flu can be caught every year or so. I heard a modeller/scientist saying the numbers of people getting it who’ve been vaccinated compared to those who’ve caught Covid previously, indicate body generated antibodies currently appear more effective than vaccine. Not seen the evidence to back that up though. Also this is early stages as well

This might be more symptomatic contagion though and maybe gov/NHS dont want people who’ve had it to think they’re untouchable and risk transmission. Who knows. As has been mentioned only time and detailed studies will confirm

 

[Nick]

Nick we’ve been over this 1000 times.

Cause of death isn’t an exact science. COVID tends to make existing conditions worse. The most reliable way to know how many COVID is killing is excess deaths but even there we know lockdown reduced deaths in lots of other areas (e.g. car crashes) so even that will undercount.

What matters isnt “is this measure exactly right with no error” but “is this measure consistent”

Which is why I was trying to confirm. I didn't say cause of death.

I asked Pete if it was anybody who died who had a positive COVID test in the last 28 days.

It's a simple question, you still didn't answer it.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Which is why I was trying to confirm. I didn't say cause of death.

I asked Pete if it was anybody who died who had a positive COVID test in the last 28 days.

It's a simple question, you still didn't answer it.

It is that and it has even been reported verbatim like that for months on end.

 

[Nick]

It is that and it has even been reported verbatim like that for months on end.

Thankyou!

 

[David O'Day]

We don’t have a figure for deaths caused by Covid other than number of deaths above the previous 5 year average. About 150000 on last counts.

The figure for those who’ve died having tested positive within the previous 28 days is the figure referred to each day

roughly 129000

We don’t ultimately know as one doesnt always know the one specific thing kills someone and also often many different aspects make up issues that lead to a loss of life

however I was shocked to find that 600000 people die in the uk each year! Although last year it was 698000mainly due to Covid 19

Even so that’s only (only) 14% increase

People forget that a lot of the deaths are caused by secondary issues caused by Covid-19. Pneumonia caused by Covid-19 is one of teh biggest reasons people die but they wouldn't be counted in the nonsense "did they die of covid" figures people want.

*wait for someone to mention being hit by a bus

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

People forget that a lot of the deaths are caused by secondary issues caused by Covid-19. Pneumonia caused by Covid-19 is one of teh biggest reasons people die but they wouldn't be counted in the nonsense "did they die of covid" figures people want.

*wait for someone to mention being hit by a bus

There is a separate count for Covid mentioned on death certificate anyway

 

[David O'Day]

There is a separate count for Covid mentioned on death certificate anyway

Yes the ONS figures which are likely more accurate but much higher so strangely don't get mentioned in government press releases.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yes the ONS figures which are likely more accurate but much higher so strangely don't get mentioned in government press releases.

I’m sure they are though I have personally known cases of it being put on the certificate despite the deceased testing negative and not even displaying symptoms. It is imperfect but as long as the error is low enough it’s the best we’ve got

 

[David O'Day]

I’m sure they are though I have personally known cases of it being put on the certificate despite the deceased testing negative and not even displaying symptoms. It is imperfect but as long as the error is low enough it’s the best we’ve got

They don't have a silly 28 cut off

 

[CCFCSteve]

Confirmed cases 44k. I never get too excited about reduction in speed of increase until we see it over 4-5 days but last couple have been better*

Covid inpatients in England still averaging an increase of around 150 per day (4k in total)…don’t want to speak too soon as there’s a long way to go but this has been pretty stable for the past two weeks


*i read Scotland’s cases dropped a few days after they got knocked out of Euros (the benefits of being shit !), not sure that will quite happen for us with other restrictions being lifted, in particular reopening of clubs, but hopefully the increase will settle down.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Confirmed cases 44k. I never get too excited about reduction in speed of increase until we see it over 4-5 days but last couple have been better*

Covid inpatients in England still averaging an increase of around 150 per day (4k in total)…don’t want to speak too soon as there’s a long way to go but this has been pretty stable for the past two weeks


*i read Scotland’s cases dropped a few days after they got knocked out of Euros (the benefits of being shit !), not sure that will quite happen for us with other restrictions being lifted, in particular reopening of clubs, but hopefully the increase will settle down.

The schools now being shut will hopefully offset things a fair bit.

 

[MusicDating]

Hopefully the 'pingdemic' will have an impact too. I suspect they've not changed the settings of the app so that they can have a 'lockdown' by proxy. Which neatly offsets the inevitable increase of sticking to freedom day despite the data...

 

[CCFCSteve]

Hopefully the 'pingdemic' will have an impact too. I suspect they've not changed the settings of the app so that they can have a 'lockdown' by proxy. Which neatly offsets the inevitable increase of sticking to freedom day despite the data...

yeah, my concern is that this will backfire eventually though, with people deleting app and then not knowing if they’ve been near someone with Covid...and therefore not testing. A few have said before, just move it to testing if you’re double jabbed and get pinged now, rather than wait til 16 Aug. If it’s correct that something 14 out of 15 people pinged haven’t got Covid that’s crazy. Also additional incentive for people to get double jabbed

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

yeah, my concern is that this will backfire eventually though, with people deleting app and then not knowing if they’ve been near someone with Covid...and therefore not testing. A few have said before, just move it to testing if you’re double jabbed and get pinged now, rather than wait til 16 Aug. If it’s correct that something 14 out of 15 people pinged haven’t got Covid that’s crazy. Also additional incentive for people to get double jabbed

If you know you don’t have it makes less than no sense to stay away. I can’t believe that hasn’t always been the ruling

 

[shmmeee]

Hopefully the 'pingdemic' will have an impact too. I suspect they've not changed the settings of the app so that they can have a 'lockdown' by proxy. Which neatly offsets the inevitable increase of sticking to freedom day despite the data...

You are crediting them with far too much intelligence and foresight.

 

[robbiekeane]

You’re wrong on the percentage of population jabbed and double jabbed too. It’s not a percentage of total population it’s the percentage of of over 18’s. Under 18’s account for about 21% of the U.K. population so it’s going to basically require 100% of the adult population to be double jabbed before we reach current estimates on herd immunity and we need to keep our fingers crossed that concerns regarding the delta variant and herd immunity turns out to be incorrect.

How am I wrong?
46.3m first doses, 36.2m of which have had second doses.

UK population 66.7m.

Not really sure what you’re on about?

Crickets

 

[fernandopartridge]

I'm generally pro restrictions going but things like this make me wonder



The real answer is increased capacity in hospital but that won't happen overnight

 

[robbiekeane]

Which is why I was trying to confirm. I didn't say cause of death.

I asked Pete if it was anybody who died who had a positive COVID test in the last 28 days.

It's a simple question, you still didn't answer it.

You know what's going to be interesting though, and just to be clear i'm a supporter of this metric and think its the most appropriate measure for covid deaths that we have and is statistically significant, is how this develops as we get more cases.

Noone is arguing the fact that using this measure includes a small number of people who have died from something unrelated but tested positive for covid in the last 28 days, just like it probably excludes people who have died from covid having tested positive 29+ days ago. The point is it's a proxy isn't it, and its statistically significant.

When cases absolutely skyrocket though, we will see this number go up from unrelated deaths. Using a ridiculous example to illustrate - if there were 35 million active cases of covid in the UK, 1 in every 2 deaths on average would flag up in this metric regardless of cause.

Not sure we will ever get to a level where it would obscure it though, so i just wasted 5 minutes writing this

 

[Nick]

It's just a big coincidence that a lot of people with a positive covid test happen to die within 28 days of that test obviously

The reduction in the number of deaths due to the vaccine disproves the nonsense behind your conspiracy theory

There was no conspiracy theory.

A lot of people die every day without covid.