Do you want to discuss boring politics? (62 Viewers)

[Deleted member 5849]

Better chance than anyone else I reckon. A lot easier to fight a classic Tory than someone who steals half your clothes. Johnson is pro net zero, pro spending, charismatic. Nightmare to position yourself against as a left wing party.

I honestly don't know, I can see arguments both ways in a purely election winning way. If the Lib Dems had their house in order to threaten in the south of the country, I'd say Johnson would be a lame duck and you'd need a more traditional Tory, who gives off an aura of not being a corrupt buffoon. As they don't, however...

On the minus side, he's becoming more and more a joke who people don't trust. On the plus side, people undoubtedly vote for him whatever he does(!) and he does have the Blairs about him in that, as you say, how do you oppose him without going more extreme, and thus less trustworthy in the eyes of many? Was the issue Corbyn had, that they had to show they'd spend even more, and offer even more freebies which meant they lurched from a 2017 manifesto which pitched it about right in my view for a Labour Party, to one that people didn't believe.

To a degree, Starmer needs to stop trying to engage Johnson however. The 'battle' there is competency vs charisma, and just let people decide which they want without trying to win an argument... even if they do go for charisma! You won't 'win' in the normal way vs Johnson however. Send Rayner out to call him a twat, and stay out of it! The downside if Johnson goes however, is that Starmer's usp is competency, so if they get another suit in, people are historically more likely to trust the blue suit than the red suit.

 

---

[Grendel]

Better chance than anyone else I reckon. A lot easier to fight a classic Tory than someone who steals half your clothes. Johnson is pro net zero, pro spending, charismatic. Nightmare to position yourself against as a left wing party.

It will in the end if he survives - he has some procedural issues to overcome still - be down to the normal things at an election time - not jelly and ice cream 3 years ago. Will Starmer still be mentioning it then - probably

 

[Grendel]

'Mr Johnson is the most popular Prime Minister ever'
'No one cares about parties'

People are bored with party gate already

 

[PVA]

It will in the end if he survives - he has some procedural issues to overcome still - be down to the normal things at an election time - not jelly and ice cream 3 years ago. Will Starmer still be mentioning it then - probably

Tell this bloke it's just jelly and ice cream.

 

[Skybluefaz]

People are bored with party gate already

There will be something else after the parties. He's incapable of conducting himself properly.

 

[Grendel]

There will be something else after the parties. He's incapable of conducting himself properly.

Three years of leaks - I highly doubt it

 

[PVA]

Better chance than anyone else I reckon. A lot easier to fight a classic Tory than someone who steals half your clothes. Johnson is pro net zero, pro spending, charismatic. Nightmare to position yourself against as a left wing party.

He doesn't have Brexit to campaign on
He doesn't have 'not Jeremy Corbyn' yo campaign on
He's been seen to be partying while people couldn't say goodbye to their dying relatives
Cost of living is about to fuck millions of people over

He's not winning another election. Not to say the Tories won't, but Johnson definitely won't

 

[Skybluefaz]

Three years of leaks - I highly doubt it

Not leaks, something totally different. He's a shambles of a man. He'll find something to shoot himself in the foot with.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I honestly don't know, I can see arguments both ways in a purely election winning way. If the Lib Dems had their house in order to threaten in the south of the country, I'd say Johnson would be a lame duck and you'd need a more traditional Tory, who gives off an aura of not being a corrupt buffoon. As they don't, however...

On the minus side, he's becoming more and more a joke who people don't trust. On the plus side, people undoubtedly vote for him whatever he does(!) and he does have the Blairs about him in that, as you say, how do you oppose him without going more extreme, and thus less trustworthy in the eyes of many? Was the issue Corbyn had, that they had to show they'd spend even more, and offer even more freebies which meant they lurched from a 2017 manifesto which pitched it about right in my view for a Labour Party, to one that people didn't believe.

To a degree, Starmer needs to stop trying to engage Johnson however. The 'battle' there is competency vs charisma, and just let people decide which they want without trying to win an argument... even if they do go for charisma! You won't 'win' in the normal way vs Johnson however. Send Rayner out to call him a twat, and stay out of it! The downside if Johnson goes however, is that Starmer's usp is competency, so if they get another suit in, people are historically more likely to trust the blue suit than the red suit.

Balanced view. I still think the next election will come down to competency. If Johnson is fighting it he needs to have delivered some tangible benefits as the negatives are there for all to see. I just can’t see enough positive news on the horizon for him to turn around public perception/opinion but as we keep saying a couple of years is a long time in politics.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Balanced view. I still think the next election will come down to competency. If Johnson is fighting it he needs to have delivered some tangible benefits as the negatives are there for all to see. I just can’t see enough positive news on the horizon for him to turn around public perception/opinion but as we keep saying a couple of years is a long time in politics.

He's about the only politician who could shag your wife and mum, and still get your vote however.

And tbf, there's a pretty high chance he *has* shagged your wife and mum...

(General you there, not specific )

 

[CCFCSteve]

He's about the only politician who could shag your wife and mum, and still get your vote however.

And tbf, there's a pretty high chance he *has* shagged your wife and mum...

(General you there, not specific )

…always wondered where my brothers albino hair came from

 

[skybluetony176]

The only way Boris would win the next GE (if he makes it that far) is if Argentina invaded the Falkland’s and we had to go and kick them out again. MT never polled as low as Boris and ultimately it was a wave of patriotism of the back of the Falklands war that saved her. Brexit is going to be Boris’ Iraq invasion and that on top of the sleaze which is going to keep coming simply for the fact that he is Boris will do for him. Unfortunately for the Tory party they purged themselves of intellectuals at the last GE so if he can get through this they’re stuck with him as there isn’t enough intelligence in the party to see that the sooner he goes the better if not for the country for the good of their own party.

 

[shmmeee]

He doesn't have Brexit to campaign on
He doesn't have 'not Jeremy Corbyn' yo campaign on
He's been seen to be partying while people couldn't say goodbye to their dying relatives
Cost of living is about to fuck millions of people over

He's not winning another election. Not to say the Tories won't, but Johnson definitely won't

The Tory line for at least the next three elections will be “Labour want to rejoin the EU” whoever is leader.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I thought that was a decent gag to be fair. Johnson will know he’s carrying as well which is why it’s funny (not so much if he’s an Adonis). People need to chill out

Nah he’s just being a twat

 

[PVA]

The Tory line for at least the next three elections will be “Labour want to rejoin the EU” whoever is leader.

Given the recent figures about funding received from 'Levelling Down Up' compared to EU funding in red wall areas they may want to rethink that campaign line!

 

[shmmeee]

Given the recent figures about funding received from 'Levelling Down Up' compared to EU funding in red wall areas they may want to rethink that campaign line!

The support for Brexit has barely changed. Remains lead in polls has come from dont knows collapsing and breaking almost exclusively for remain. Which suggests the base Johnson got elected on still exists and likely in the areas he needs it to.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Tell this bloke it's just jelly and ice cream.

Is he a sucker or not?

 

[Grendel]

Nah he’s just being a twat

it was funny Blackford is a dull bore

 

[Grendel]

Given the recent figures about funding received from 'Levelling Down Up' compared to EU funding in red wall areas they may want to rethink that campaign line!

Lol

 

[PVA]

The support for Brexit has barely changed. Remains lead in polls has come from dont knows collapsing and breaking almost exclusively for remain. Which suggests the base Johnson got elected on still exists and likely in the areas he needs it to.

Yeah but I'm not talking about now, I'm talking about in a few years time. When people become very aware of the funding cuts and the cost of living is fucking people over.

 

[PVA]

Lol

Are you OK?

Your hero has been taking a hammering for a couple of months and you've been nowhere to be seen on here. Most unlike you. Obviously taken it pretty badly.

 

[Grendel]

Yeah but I'm not talking about now, I'm talking about in a few years time. When people become very aware of the funding cuts and the cost of living is fucking people over.

in the north he will still be seen as the man who got brexit over the line and Starmer the man who wanted to stop it

 

[Grendel]

Balanced view. I still think the next election will come down to competency. If Johnson is fighting it he needs to have delivered some tangible benefits as the negatives are there for all to see. I just can’t see enough positive news on the horizon for him to turn around public perception/opinion but as we keep saying a couple of years is a long time in politics.

Starmer is a desperately poor leader - people need to factor in how unappealing he is.

 

[PVA]

in the north he will still be seen as the man who got brexit over the line and Starmer the man who wanted to stop it

And my point is in a few years time there's a good chance that being seen as the man who got Brexit over the line will not be a good thing.

I think you, and many others, grossly underestimate just how hard Brexit is going to fuck many people over.

 

[Grendel]

And my point is in a few years time there's a good chance that being seen as the man who got Brexit over the line will not be a good thing.

I think you, and many others, grossly underestimate just how hard Brexit is going to fuck many people over.

you have zero idea how people think and how important perception is - and the fact many who voted for brexit did so on an ideological perspective as opposed to hard economics - and the fact many believe it’s being a member of the EU that has caused their misery in the first place

Do you think if labour stood on a platform of returning to the EU it would be a vote winner?

 

[shmmeee]

Yeah but I'm not talking about now, I'm talking about in a few years time. When people become very aware of the funding cuts and the cost of living is fucking people over.

Oh yeah like how people stopped supporting Right to Buy after it contributed to the housing crisis, oh wait.

All of that stuff is second order, no one who voted for Brexit is going to change their mind based on it, they’ll just blame covid, or the government, or the EU like we saw with supply chain issues. Sunk cost fallacy is strong.

 

[PVA]

Oh yeah like how people stopped supporting Right to Buy after it contributed to the housing crisis, oh wait.

All of that stuff is second order, no one who voted for Brexit is going to change their mind based on it, they’ll just blame covid, or the government, or the EU like we saw with supply chain issues. Sunk cost fallacy is strong.

We'll see.

It'll be like the Iraq War. At the time the majority were in favour of it then however many years later you can't find a single person who says they were in favour of it.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

We'll see.

It'll be like the Iraq War. At the time the majority were in favour of it then however many years later you can't find a single person who says they were in favour of it.

Hmm, and who won the election immediately after that?

 

[shmmeee]

We'll see.

It'll be like the Iraq War. At the time the majority were in favour of it then however many years later you can't find a single person who says they were in favour of it.

Literally no one doesn’t vote Labour because of Iraq. The left don’t like it but vote anyway cos otherwise they’ll get Tories. The right don’t care. Brexit will be the same.

Labour need to stop hoping someone will hand them power on a silver platter and do the hard work of actually appealing to a majority of voters.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Literally no one doesn’t vote Labour because of Iraq. The left don’t like it but vote anyway cos otherwise they’ll get Tories. The right don’t care. Brexit will be the same.

Labour need to stop hoping someone will hand them power on a silver platter and do the hard work of actually appealing to a majority of voters.

Hmm, I dunno. It's more nuanced than that really, but arguably Iraq marginalised Blair's voice, which led to Corbyn, Brexit, Johnson...

 

[skybluetony176]

in the north he will still be seen as the man who got brexit over the line and Starmer the man who wanted to stop it

Your assumption is that in a couple of years time that will be seen as a positive for Boris and a negative for anyone else. The way brexit and project here is unfolding the exact opposite could be true.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Your assumption is that in a couple of years time that will be seen as a positive for Boris and a negative for anyone else. The way brexit and project here is unfolding the exact opposite could be true.

There are a fair few who are wedded to it whatever the best thing socially and economically, when looked at objectively. Hence why it happened in the first place!

 

[CCFCSteve]

Oh yeah like how people stopped supporting Right to Buy after it contributed to the housing crisis, oh wait.

All of that stuff is second order, no one who voted for Brexit is going to change their mind based on it, they’ll just blame covid, or the government, or the EU like we saw with supply chain issues. Sunk cost fallacy is strong.

German economy grew by 2.7% in 2021 as country tackled supply chain issues, surging Covid cases

The German economy grew by 2.7% in 2021, despite another year of surging Covid-19 cases, pandemic-related restrictions and supply chain pressures.

www.cnbc.com

sorry, couldn’t resist. There’s no doubt Brexit impacted supply chains but other countries inc USA and Germany are having a very bad time as well. The lump everything into Brexit box is inaccurate. I also think it’s as much reacting to the situation now rather than Brexit itself (which I think you’ve also highlighted before) and the government have been poor in this area

I agree that Johnson (if around) will go for the Starmer will reverse/soften Brexit line. This wont work in south, but might the further north you go. In addition, the vote Labour get SNP coalition

The interesting bit of data will be how those marginal seats, especially historical Labour, view brexit at the time of the next election. Wont need a large percentage of buyers remorse to swing seats back

 

[Deleted member 5849]

the vote Labour get SNP coalition

Wish people would work out that the best way to marginalise the SNP is vote Labour. Sure, not immediately, but get a Labour UK government and half the point of the SNP vanishes.

As an aside, local authorities are gearing up to deal with the government's white paper on levelling up, that's along imminently. How that goes could define what happens going forward.

 

[shmmeee]

German economy grew by 2.7% in 2021 as country tackled supply chain issues, surging Covid cases

The German economy grew by 2.7% in 2021, despite another year of surging Covid-19 cases, pandemic-related restrictions and supply chain pressures.

www.cnbc.com

sorry, couldn’t resist. There’s no doubt Brexit impacted supply chains but other countries inc USA and Germany are having a very bad time as well. The lump everything into Brexit box is inaccurate. I also think it’s as much reacting to the situation now rather than Brexit itself (which I think you’ve also highlighted before) and the government have been poor in this area

I agree that Johnson (if around) will go for the Starmer will reverse/soften Brexit line. This wont work in south, but might the further north you go. In addition, the vote Labour get SNP coalition

The interesting bit of data will be how those marginal seats, especially historical Labour, view brexit at the time of the next election. Wont need a large percentage of buyers remorse to swing seats back

This kinda proves my point. I’ve no idea what the split between covid and Brexit is, but the fact it’s not clear cut means mostly it’ll be down to your prior beliefs what to blame and what to excuse.

My point was really that I don’t see some great moment with Brexit where Brexit voters come crying back saying how right Remainers were, which a couple of people seem to expect.

Im not seeing any evidence of buyers remorse and as a Remainer obviously I’ll say that’s because covid has muddied the waters enough and a a Brexiter you’ll say it’s because Brexit isn’t a disaster like some thought.