Under the Bookies Radar: (7 Viewers)

Forums New posts
Brylowes

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.
 
Sick Boy

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
Brylowes said:
Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.
Click to expand...
It’s probably about right, a lot depends on what happens in January.
 
P

PVA

Well-Known Member
Perhaps they hadn't updated the outright odds after yesterday's matches when you looked last night, because I've just looked on Sky Bet now and they have us 9th favourite to win the league (at 50/1)
 
hill83

hill83

Well-Known Member
PVA said:
Perhaps they hadn't updated the outright odds after yesterday's odds when you looked last night, because I've just looked on Sky Bet now and they have us 9th favourite to win the league (at 50/1)
Click to expand...

Sounds even righter
 
Brylowes

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
Sick Boy said:
It’s probably about right, a lot depends on what happens in January.
Click to expand...
I disagree.
A run of 22pts from 25
10 clean sheets in 13 games.
4 wins on the spin.
This is the type of form that usually stirs the bookie into action, our odds have barely moved.
Also the bookie won’t offer odds now that reflect any transfer business we may do in January.
 
Sick Boy

Sick Boy

Super Moderator
Brylowes said:
I disagree.
A run of 22pts from 25
10 clean sheets in 13 games.
4 wins on the spin.
This is the type of form that usually stirs the bookie into action, our odds have barely moved.
Also the bookie won’t offer odds now that reflect any transfer business we may do in January.
Click to expand...
We’d need to sustain that form, which will be a factor in their odds. They’re probably factoring the lack of depth in the squad and the possibility of our top assets going in Jan.
I think the odds are about right - not sure about WBA though!
 
fatso

fatso

Well-Known Member
Brylowes said:
Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.
Click to expand...
If we loose Vik, either sold or injured, we are out of the running.

The bookies will react to the money being placed, so it's not them that dosnt rate us, it's the punters.
But you have to remember that many of the bets would of been placed early in the season when we were marooned at the bottom with off field issues.
 
Londonccfcfan

Londonccfcfan

Well-Known Member
Odds reflect an open league.

Top 4 is likely done and dusted between ex premier clubs and other likely teams.

Its anyones guess for that 5th/6th spot.

It would be great if we can maintain and consolidate between 8th to 12th. Till around Easter.
 
Brylowes

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
Seems I was onto something after all, without a single championship game being played our odds in all fields have now shortened, we were 50/1 for the league now 40/1, we were 14/1 to win promotion but we are now 8/1.
I ended up having a good wedge on the bet that stood out for me 9/2 on a top 6 finish, this has now shortened to 3/1 tho I believe 7/2 is available.
What with Doug King confirming no sales in January, I’m fairly confident tbh
 
higgs

higgs

Well-Known Member
Brylowes said:
Seems I was onto something after all, without a single championship game being played our odds in all fields have now shortened, we were 50/1 for the league now 40/1, we were 14/1 to win promotion but we are now 8/1.
I ended up having a good wedge on the bet that stood out for me 9/2 on a top 6 finish, this has now shortened to 3/1 tho I believe 7/2 is available.
What with Doug King confirming no sales in January, I’m fairly confident tbh
Click to expand...
Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk
 
T

Travs

Well-Known Member
We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.
 
robbiekeane

robbiekeane

Well-Known Member
Sick Boy said:
We’d need to sustain that form, which will be a factor in their odds. They’re probably factoring the lack of depth in the squad and the possibility of our top assets going in Jan.
I think the odds are about right - not sure about WBA though!
Click to expand...
They’ve not factored anything in. The odds are based on the market
 
pipkin73

pipkin73

Well-Known Member
Travs said:
We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.
Click to expand...
IF DK puts the right money in in January, then we could buy squad depth so injuries would not matter so much unless to key players. Even then MR has always found away around it.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Travs said:
We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.
Click to expand...
Come back strong in December and we’ll basically be in the same scenario as last January. Squad too small to sustain a top 6 challenge, will the powers that be support it being strengthened or force Robins to shuffle around free transfers if he’s lucky.
 
itsabuzzard

itsabuzzard

Well-Known Member
higgs said:
Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

Sent from my SM-A528B using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

Sent from my MAR-LX1A using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 8 (members: 0, guests: 8)
Top