Sky_Blue_Daz
Well-Known Member
Right well I’m getting a can out of the fridge
So what’s permutations please (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sky_Blue_Daz
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Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
3rd plays 6th and 4th plays the 5th placed team. As things currently stand our playoff opponents will be Middlesborough.
Otis
Well-Known Member
I would say that counts for nothing on the last day and it always throws up a number of surprising results
Fergusons_Beard
Well-Known Member
Its conceivable that 4 teams could end on 69 points.
If Blackburn draw on Monday. Takes them to 66 points.
Sunderland and West Brom are on 66.
Millwall are on 68.
So that leaves the last game permutations as-
If Blackburn win they are on 69.
If Sunderland win they are on 69
If West Brom win they are in 69
If Millwall draw they are on 69
If city lose we are on 69.
Now with Millwall playing Blackburn only a win can do it for Blackburn if they draw in Mondays game. Lose and they out of the final day shoot out.
But it could conceivably happen that goal difference decides who makes the play offs.
As there are 5 teams going for it and 2 places.
A city draw or win and we can’t be caught.
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If Blackburn draw on Monday. Takes them to 66 points.
Sunderland and West Brom are on 66.
Millwall are on 68.
So that leaves the last game permutations as-
If Blackburn win they are on 69.
If Sunderland win they are on 69
If West Brom win they are in 69
If Millwall draw they are on 69
If city lose we are on 69.
Now with Millwall playing Blackburn only a win can do it for Blackburn if they draw in Mondays game. Lose and they out of the final day shoot out.
But it could conceivably happen that goal difference decides who makes the play offs.
As there are 5 teams going for it and 2 places.
A city draw or win and we can’t be caught.
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Johhny Blue
Well-Known Member
Even if we lose and go up it will be our fault if Sunderland finish 7th
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
Coventry remains 5th place:
- Coventry wins against Middlesbrough OR
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall doesn't win
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall wins OR
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall loses or draws, Sunderland lose or draws (edited) and West Brom don't win by enough goals to surpass Coventry's goal difference
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, and one of Sunderland or West Brom wins, surpassing Coventry's goal difference, while the other doesn't win or doesn't surpass Coventry's goal difference
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, Sunderland and West Brom both win and surpass Coventry's goal difference
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Jonny Barton
Well-Known Member
Is this right?
For Cov to not make the play offs
They have to lose
2 of Sunderland, West Brom and (Millwall or Blackburn) have to win. Then it comes down to GD.
For Cov to not make the play offs
They have to lose
2 of Sunderland, West Brom and (Millwall or Blackburn) have to win. Then it comes down to GD.
Johhny Blue
Well-Known Member
Goal difference doesn’t matter V Sunderland. If they win and we lose they would overtake us
robbiekeane
Well-Known Member
Yeh you’re right cause to lose we’d take 1 off our GD and for them to win they need to add one. You outsmarted the AI
Johhny Blue
Well-Known Member
Not bad for an Irishman
Astute
Well-Known Member
Blackburn v Luton tomorrow. If Blackburn don't win they can't catch us. They're 4 points behind us but GD between us is 15 in our favour. A draw would be great for us. They then have Millwall on the last day.
Millwall are on a bad run including losing to teams near the bottom. The GD between us and Millwall is 4 in our favour and we're a point above them so they would need to beat Blackburn or a draw and we get a right beating at Middlesbrough.
WBA are 3 points behind us but the GD is 5 in our favour. They also are away at Swansea who are in great form. The season is ending too soon for them. 5 wins and 2 draws this month out of 7 games.
Then we have Sunderland. They are 3 points behind us with the GD 2 in our favour. So if they win and we lose they go above us. But their last game is away at Preston. It won't be easy. Preston haven't lost at home since the start of February.
But just a point at Middlesbrough and we're safely in the playoffs. Only Blackburn and Millwall could catch us. But as they play each other last game of the season only one of them could catch us.
SIR ERNIE
Well-Known Member
You can play with permutations all day but in the end it's Middlesbrough who who can pretty much decide who they want /don't want in the semis.
Boro are going to be playoff favourites and the last thing they'll want is to risk a local derby semi final inferno at Sunderland in front of 50k Boro haters.
I believe they'll decide Coventry are going to be their best opponents, especially as they can soften us up in the final league game whilst resting some star players for the semi.
Boro are going to be playoff favourites and the last thing they'll want is to risk a local derby semi final inferno at Sunderland in front of 50k Boro haters.
I believe they'll decide Coventry are going to be their best opponents, especially as they can soften us up in the final league game whilst resting some star players for the semi.
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SkyBlue_Bear83
Well-Known Member
Millwall draw keeps them below us on both occasions surely?
We would have to lose 5-0 for Millwall to surpass us with a draw
Legia Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
My gut feeling at the moment is that Blackburn will find it very difficult at a pumped up Den, regardless of their result against Luton beforehand, so am expecting a Millwall win. In regards of Sunderland, I imagine their fans will dominate the atmoshere at Deepdale too, where I can see them beating a demoralised Preston team. That being the case we will need a draw to to take 6th place. It's gonna be a another nervy day!
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SkyBlue_Bear83
Well-Known Member
It's not an unlikely scenario
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
My parents are flying out to see me next Monday and my dad has moved their flight to leave and arrive at a different airport and is making up all sorts of excuses for doing it (Spurs fan). Looking forward to see what he comes out with for why he needs to sit on the sofa that afternoon.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
If Millwall draw, they'll finish below us unless we lose by 5 goals (or 4 goals, in the unlikely scenario Millwall draw 4-4 and we fail to score). Our GD and GS is superior to theirs and most of the teams around us.
Without being too confident, I really think we'd need a lot to go wrong for us to not make the playoffs. Personally, I'd fancy our chances against Middlesborough more than Luton so a 5th place finish is the likely favoured outcome.
Essexrobbie
Well-Known Member
I hate the idea of us only needing a point in the last game, it means we will go there and play it defensive and tight which will invite Middlesborough on to us. Would rather go there needing a win and be on the front foot.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Don't agree. We seem to be quite good at letting teams have the ball but not letting them have chances. And we can be good on the break, just need to be better with the final shot. If we HAD to win I think we'd lose our defensive solidity looking for the goal and be more likely to concede.
I don't think MR will go ultra-defensive and play for the draw as that's tempting fate. He'll go with the normal game plan of solid defensively (especially first half) and looking to hit on the break. If we get a draw then that's enough.
We're in the favourable position compared to everyone else. Loads of things rattling around my head - we seem to be poor away at the Riverside (even though it shouldn't matter with different players, circumstances each time), will they have their foot of the gas, rest players? Will they leave a couple of reducers on the likes of Gyok/hamer so they either react and get sent off or pick up a small injury to keep them out of a potential play-off semi between us?
duffer
Well-Known Member
I hate to be negative, but that seems like a reasonably likely scenario to me. Assuming I've worked this out correctly, I think it looks like this...
Sunderland's game at Preston looks eminently winnable. Preston have got nothing to play for and aren't on a great run on of form.
I reckon Millwall v Blackburn is slightly harder to call. However, unless they get something tomorrow at home against Luton, Blackburn will have nothing to play for at Millwall. That said you'd have to fancy the atmosphere at the Den will make it hard for Blackburn regardless.
If Millwall and Blackburn draw, then unless we get absolutely spanked by four or more, goal difference means we should finish above both of them.
West Brom (who are playing at Swansea) need a five goal swing (e.g we lose 3-0, they win 2-0) to finish above us.
Having started off negatively, you could flip this and say how would we feel if we needed to win against either Preston, Swansea, Millwall, or Blackburn to get a play-off place?
The teams competing with us for a final place will be feeling the pressure too, and I'll bet their forums are just as worried as ours!
One last effort and a scrappy, crappy, draw at Boro, and all of this is academic. Even a narrow defeat might get us there.
The CableGuy
Well-Known Member
It's great that were even having this conversation with just one game to go. I think we'll need that draw at Boro and they will rest a few of their players for future play-off battles against us.
thekidfromstrettoncamp
Well-Known Member
Don't think they will rest players because their opponents in the playoffs will probably be us? Would you weaken your side give the team your likely to play in them the chance to get the upperhand right before you play them.
Blackburn arent very good away , millwalls record against the top 8 is better than the bottom 8 theyve taken points off everyone above them and those just below them and with home advantage are warm favourites to win , that said i dont think you have anything to worry about and i think youll win at middlesbro, its goid for football that this years playoffs will feature sides that werent relegated from the premiership last season , and whoever gets there will deserve to
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
We've never won at the Riverside mind
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Just noticed Boro have scored a pretty monstrous 83 goals from 44 games
SeaSeeEffCee
Well-Known Member
It’s weird. The vibe pretty much everywhere is that we’ve done it and we’re in, but realistically we’ve got a pretty strong chance of not making it.
The CableGuy
Well-Known Member
Put it this way - if we had already secured our play-off spot and were playing Boro this weekend - and probably again in the play-offs, would you risk our top players picking up an injury in a game we don't have to win? That the position Boro are in right now, next Sunday is a free hit for them and ideally a rest day for their top players. Why risk them getting injured, regardless of who they play in the play-offs?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Sunday is a rest day for our players too…
Astute
Well-Known Member
But have lost 14 games. They have lost more games than all the top 7 sides other than Millwall. They have lost 15.
Win on Saturday and we will have done the double over them. They haven't scored against us this season yet.
thekidfromstrettoncamp
Well-Known Member
Like I said in my piece would you want to risk us having a second victory over them this season going into the playoffs looking at it from our point of view 2 wins over them and playing them a third time I would much rather go in having beat them twice than lost.
Gynnsthetonic
Well-Known Member
It seems almost the same scenario as the Morecombe game, we weren't guaranteed a play off place then, didn't other results go for us that day