Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Millwall (12 Viewers)

[SIR ERNIE]

I have said the odds move slightly but the realistic odds are a bit different. They will all most probably be different by the time the games kick off depending on where the money is placed.

The paragraph that confirms that you really havent got a clue.

Not a bad thing at all but just be careful with your bets.

 

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[Astute]

The paragraph that confirms that you really havent got a clue.

Not a bad thing at all but just be careful with your bets.

Not done bad with my bets as usual. I know how they work. Took 4/1 on us reaching the playoffs. Also had a charity bet on here at about the same time. So confident I took that at evens.

Hardly anyone took note of form and the amount of times teams at the top played each other. It was bound to be carnage. I stated 1-1 at Blackburn and two home wins could well be enough. With 1 game to go we have 69 points and could well be enough. No side that can go past us has an easy last game.

Two teams have to go past us. Millwall have to win. Only scored in 3 out of last 8 games. Blackburn playing well but being very unlucky. Can't see a Millwall win.

Sunderland just need to win. Good away but Preston solid at home. 4 wins 3 draws last 7 home games. Probable draw.

If neither of them win we're in the playoffs. If 1 wins it comes down to the last game. That's WBA. They would need to win and turn around a 5GD with us. Away to a good Swansea side. They're playing well. Swansea win.

And before anyone says anything this is without us playing.

Not betting on it though

 

[Briles]

You can also back us not to make the playoffs at 5/1 on SkyBet.

Removes the other scenarios such as West Brom etc.

I'd do that, just to take the edge off any disappointment

 

[Perryccfc]

I had a £50 side bet with a Norwich fan that we would finish above them this season, so that’s a winner.

I have also placed a bet on this treble, but only £20 for me.

 

[stevo1]

The Middlesbrough odds are about right. Good form at home but against a side that have only lost 1 game in the last 16.

Millwall odds on? How many are realistically confident of a Millwall win against Blackburn who have been very unlucky lately? Last game they narrowly beat Blackpool to send them down. In the last 8 games they have only won 1 other game. In the other 6 games they have only managed 2 goalless draws and lost the rest mainly against sides near the bottom. Including the 2 games they won in the last 8 they have only scored in 3 of them.

Sunderland? Decent away form. But they play at Preston. Preston have won 4 drawn 3 in their last 7 home games. They are not worth odds on either.

I would put their realistic chances closer to those of Middlesbrough. Doesn't sound a lot but the return would be about double.

Millwall are shockingly inconsistent of late but didnt deserve their defeats against hull or birmingham only burnley gave conceded fewer goals at home than millwall and though any result is possible millwalls home form burnley sheffutd luton middlsbro coventry wba preston and sunderland all failed to win there the price is probably generous

 

[stevo1]

Not done bad with my bets as usual. I know how they work. Took 4/1 on us reaching the playoffs. Also had a charity bet on here at about the same time. So confident I took that at evens.

Hardly anyone took note of form and the amount of times teams at the top played each other. It was bound to be carnage. I stated 1-1 at Blackburn and two home wins could well be enough. With 1 game to go we have 69 points and could well be enough. No side that can go past us has an easy last game.

Two teams have to go past us. Millwall have to win. Only scored in 3 out of last 8 games. Blackburn playing well but being very unlucky. Can't see a Millwall win.

Sunderland just need to win. Good away but Preston solid at home. 4 wins 3 draws last 7 home games. Probable draw.

If neither of them win we're in the playoffs. If 1 wins it comes down to the last game. That's WBA. They would need to win and turn around a 5GD with us. Away to a good Swansea side. They're playing well. Swansea win.

And before anyone says anything this is without us playing.

Not betting on it though

Anything can happen but millwall havent had the breaks in recent games , only burnley have conceded fewer at home and not 1 side in the top 8 have won there blackburn arent great away from home either the price on millwall is very tempting

 

[Astute]

Millwall are shockingly inconsistent of late but didnt deserve their defeats against hull or birmingham only burnley gave conceded fewer goals at home than millwall and though any result is possible millwalls home form burnley sheffutd luton middlsbro coventry wba preston and sunderland all failed to win there the price is probably generous

But how about the form of Blackburn? They have been unlucky against top sides including us.if luck was on their side they would be clear 5th.

 

[Astute]

Anything can happen but millwall havent had the breaks in recent games , only burnley have conceded fewer at home and not 1 side in the top 8 have won there blackburn arent great away from home either the price on millwall is very tempting

Blackburn?

Last game 1-1 Luton. Struck the bar near the end of the game.

0-1 Burnley. Burnley only managed 1 strike on target. Blackburn played well against the top side. Burnley needed to win to confirm as champions.

1-1 Preston. Denied the win by an OG (cheers agent Hyam) in the 94th minute.

1-1 with us. Denied the win by a goalkeeper scoring right at the end.

Millwall have been playing teams mainly near the bottom. Only scored in 3 of the last 8 games. The only game Blackburn have lost in the last 6 games was that one against Burnley.

So how does the form of these teams equate to odds on being generous to Millwall?

What you also have to remember is although they can't catch us they need to win to have a chance. They would be on 69 points with us.

 

[stevo1]

But how about the form of Blackburn? They have been unlucky against top sides including us.if luck was on their side they would be clear 5th.

Millwall would say the same their 1-0 defeats by hull birmingham and huddersfield were all games they deserved to win , it is true blackburn are in decent form but they arent generslly successful away from home , most millwall fans would rather be playing blackburn than any side near the bottom or nothing to play for , the fact that blackburn have to win helps millwall , of course all 3 outcomes are possible , i was just pointing out that odds of 10/11 for millwall are probably good odds they in reality should be a little shirter

 

[Astute]

Millwall would say the same their 1-0 defeats by hull birmingham and huddersfield were all games they deserved to win , it is true blackburn are in decent form but they arent generslly successful away from home , most millwall fans would rather be playing blackburn than any side near the bottom or nothing to play for , the fact that blackburn have to win helps millwall , of course all 3 outcomes are possible , i was just pointing out that odds of 10/11 for millwall are probably good odds they in reality should be a little shirter

Why would they prefer to play a decent side that has to beat them?

Being unlucky to teams and losing like Hull and Birmingham shows more than being unlucky but still only losing to the champions 1-0 with their only shot on target. A long range solo goal.

 

[stevo1]

Why would they prefer to play a decent side that has to beat them?

Being unlucky to teams and losing like Hull and Birmingham shows more than being unlucky but still only losing to the champions 1-0 with their only shot on target. A long range solo goal.

Millwalls record against the better sides at the den would suggest blackburn are up against it home wins over sheff utd middlesbro coventry wba preston with burnley luton sunderland all being held to draws yet huddersfield took 6 pts and wigan 4pts from them , they are genuinely better against the better sides they also have the jount best defensive home record in the division , of course anything can happen but reality is they are the bookies favourites for this game and rightly so , i also dont think youve anything to worry about i think youll beat boro and i hope you do as well

 

[rob9872]

You're both over analysing imo. Close on 50% of games on average are won by the home side. It varies marginally league to league but it's often 50% home, 25% draw, 25% away. With two reasonably evenly matched sides, the odds favour the home side. Its balanced slightly for form, the occasion and will come directly possibly to holding nerve, a bit of luck or a bad decision, but bookies are there for a reason and its not to be generous or give aesy money and they usually have the pricing about right with a small edge for them, if they say its 10/11 then it's likely approx evs to be right and why beating them long term is difficult.

 

[Astute]

Millwalls record against the better sides at the den would suggest blackburn are up against it home wins over sheff utd middlesbro coventry wba preston with burnley luton sunderland all being held to draws yet huddersfield took 6 pts and wigan 4pts from them , they are genuinely better against the better sides they also have the jount best defensive home record in the division , of course anything can happen but reality is they are the bookies favourites for this game and rightly so , i also dont think youve anything to worry about i think youll beat boro and i hope you do as well

Millwall not to win and we're up without Sunderland not winning a difficult game. 69 points should do us.

 

[Astute]

You're both over analysing imo. Close on 50% of games on average are won by the home side. It varies marginally league to league but its ofter 50% home, 25% draw, 25% away. With two reasonably evenly matched sides, the odds favour the home side. Its balanced slightly fir form, the occasion and will come directly possibly to holding nerve, a bit of luck or a bad decision, bit bookies are there fir a reason and its not to be generous or give aesy money and they usually have the pricing about right with a sndll edge for them if they say its 10/11 then it's likely approx evs to be right and why beating them long term is difficult.

Millwall are not playing well. Blackburn are. Prefer form to Home/away

So Middlesbrough should be evens/odds on to beat us? They're already in the playoffs and are good at home.

 

[rob9872]

Millwall are not playing well. Blackburn are. Prefer form to Home/away

So Middlesbrough should be evens/odds on to beat us? They're already in the playoffs and are good at home.

Of course form is relevant, simply explaining the theory based pricing partly on Kong term trend and adjusted for who needs what or many other factors.

 

[SkyblueDad]

Let’s be honest Blackburn haven’t had the best of luck until their last ditch equaliser v Luton, those two late late goals against us and Preston must haunt them but their last minute equaliser against Luton sets them up for the Millwall match and this division keeps delivering unlikely results.

 

[Astute]

Of course form is relevant, simply explaining the theory based pricing partly on Kong term trend and adjusted for who needs what or many other factors.

Form is very relevant. But some here pick and choose when to use form.

Preston have won 4 drawn 3 in their last 7 games at home. Sunderland are away at Preston yet are odds on. So form and being at home yet using methods mentioned the away side have the odds the home side should have?

 

[play_in_skyblue_stripes]

Let’s be honest Blackburn haven’t had the best of luck until their last ditch equaliser v Luton, those two late late goals against us and Preston must haunt them but their last minute equaliser against Luton sets them up for the Millwall match and this division keeps delivering unlikely results.

Lets hope Blackburn have luck and win but lets also hope they drop their terrible time wasting charade too.

 

[Grendel]

In tbe last 10 games millwall are 11th in the form table Blackburn are 22nd - they’ve won one in 10 - it would be a major surprise if millwall don’t win

 

[SIR ERNIE]

But how about the form of Blackburn? They have been unlucky against top sides including us.if luck was on their side they would be clear 5th.

How is it 'unlucky' to concede goals in injury time?

 

[Sick Boy]

Put £20 on the treble and saw that I’d placed a bet on us to go up at the start of the season.

 

[Astute]

How is it 'unlucky' to concede goals in injury time?

Already been covered enough.....

How have Millwall been unlucky to keep losing? Were they special kind of defeats? Are you special?

 

[rob9872]

Put £20 on the treble and saw that I’d placed a bet on us to go up at the start of the season.

What price did you get back then?

 

[Sick Boy]

What price did you get back then?

I think it was 10-1 - this would have been before the season started.

 

[Sick Boy]

Shame on the bedwetters for not believing.

 

[The Philosopher]

Always bet with your head and not your heart. And only bet what you can afford to lose as well as losing it wouldn't change your mood in the slightest.

Easy one for me. Not after a profit. Had an arse covering bet. Was quite confident a few weeks ago we would make the playoffs. Got 4/1. Now have 8.11/1 that my first bet will lose.

The first bet would pay for me to fly over and watch our 3 playoff wins. The second bet would cover the other stake and would leave enough over to sit outside my local bar watching the gorgeous French birds walking past to drown my sorrows

Going after a long shot means you will most probably lose. The value bet....and one you can win plus we make the playoffs is 6/4 on a Middlesbrough win. Lose the bet and the playoff place is ours.

Where abouts are you in France?

I’ve a place there that I spend a lot of time and I’d organised to be there on Play off final day (France).

I’ll be able to get my mate to stream it in his bar - if you’re stuck and local (ish)…

 

[Grendel]

Already been covered enough.....

How have Millwall been unlucky to keep losing? Were they special kind of defeats? Are you special?

On any form table millwall are ahead of Blackburn

 

[rob9872]

On any form table millwall are ahead of Blackburn

And at home and need something out of the game to reach playoffs, I'm not even sure which part of this is in dispute, but there are a number of reasons they are rightly favourite.

 

[steve cooper]

Form is obviously important, but so is pressure. Millwall are at home and are expected to win in front of their fans. They may 'bottle it'.
Blackburn have nothing to lose really, they are all but written off, when in fact if they win they have a very similar chance of reaching the playoffs as we do if we were to lose.

 

[The Philosopher]

Is there a path where we play Boro and Blackburn play Luton in the Playoffs?

Hyam in the final - gives a pen to us, signs back to us in the summer because we are in the Prem, we keep Vik - sorted.

Easy.

 

[rob9872]

Is there a path where we play Boro and Blackburn play Luton in the Playoffs?

Hyam in the final - gives a pen to us, signs back to us in the summer because we are in the Prem, we keep Vik - sorted.

Easy.

Yes. If we get at least a point we play Boro.
If Blackburn beat Millwall and WBA and Sunderland both fail to win their games then Blackburn play Luton.

 

[Astute]

Where abouts are you in France?

I’ve a place there that I spend a lot of time and I’d organised to be there on Play off final day (France).

I’ll be able to get my mate to stream it in his bar - if you’re stuck and local (ish)…

Thanks but my youngest lad has been here nearly 4 years now. He has the season pass on ifollow.

We're in between Limoges and Poitiers. If for some reason we can't get to the UK we could consider something over here

 

[Astute]

And at home and need something out of the game to reach playoffs, I'm not even sure which part of this is in dispute, but there are a number of reasons they are rightly favourite.

When we played the top teams near the end of the season they ended in a draw. When we played the bottom teams we won.

But Millwall are something special. I see your in agreement with Grendel. Every one of his predictions has been wrong. No idea what rubbish he has come out with though. Blocked the idiot at long last.

 

[The Philosopher]

Thanks but my youngest lad has been here nearly 4 years now. He has the season pass on ifollow.

We're in between Limoges and Poitiers. If for some reason we can't get to the UK we could consider something over here

Ha,

I’m about 10k from Chauvigny - between Limoges and Poitiers.

Small world.

 

[Astute]

Ha,

I’m about 10k from Chauvigny - between Limoges and Poitiers.

Small world.

Drove through Chauvigny earlier on my way to Poitiers hospital

Go to St Savin twice a day Monday to Friday. One of my kids is at school there until the summer holidays end of June. I take it you don't live there