Do you want to discuss boring politics? (82 Viewers)

[fernandopartridge]

Confirmed now. The BOE has also downgraded its forecast for the UK.

These are supposed to be self-fulfilling prophecies

 

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[CCFCSteve]

That’s your own spin Steve, I’m not saying that at all.

Hungarys issues stem around a far right government historically trying to move away from Europe and closer to Russia. Because of that they became heavily reliant on Russian imports meaning they’ve been hit particularly hard by EU sanctions on Russia compared to other EU or indeed non EU European countries, they put their eggs in the wrong basket. Couple that with their currency being vulnerable due to being a small player in the currency market the Forint has bombed. They’re in a similar situation to us. They’ve put their faith in the wrong ideology for the last decade.

It wasn't my intention to spin anything, more just commenting that each country will have their own inflation challenges depending on food growth, energy generation/reliance on wholesale market, currency fluctuations, labour market etc etc so there will be a multitude of reasons why inflation rates will differ country to country.

 

[clint van damme]

It wasn't my intention to spin anything, more just commenting that each country will have their own inflation challenges depending on food growth, energy generation/reliance on wholesale market, currency fluctuations, labour market etc etc so there will be a multitude of reasons why inflation rates will differ country to country.

True. But the government was quick to point to inflation rates in other countries when they were comparable with ours and pull out the -Putins war' excuse.

It's only right to now look at those that are starting to get inflation undercontrol and question why we're struggling compared to some, admittedly we're not the only one but on most economic metrics we're performing poorly.

 

[Grendel]

Confirmed now. The BOE has also downgraded its forecast for the UK.

I assumed that’s the justification of their strategy

 

[fernandopartridge]

I assumed that’s the justification of their strategy

Yes, self fulfilling prophecy in action

 

[CCFCSteve]

True. But the government was quick to point to inflation rates in other countries when they were comparable with ours and pull out the -Putins war' excuse.

It's only right to now look at those that are starting to get inflation undercontrol and question why we're struggling compared to some, admittedly we're not the only one but on most economic metrics we're performing poorly.

Agreed. It’s only right to look at why there’s differences and I don’t doubt there might be specific issues relating to government policy, Brexit etc. I’m just saying I don’t think they’re the main reasons and that giving BoE a pass when it’s their sole job to control inflation whilst blaming government isn’t quite right

 

[duffer]

Agreed. It’s only right to look at why there’s differences and I don’t doubt there might be specific issues relating to government policy, Brexit etc. I’m just saying I don’t think they’re the main reasons and that giving BoE a pass when it’s their sole job to control inflation whilst blaming government isn’t quite right

And in a nutshell, imho, there's the problem. The BOE have only one lever to control inflation - interest rates.

Raising them will take money out of people's pockets, but there's very little to suggest that this bout of inflation is a result of paying (most) people too much. In fact real earnings have lagged behind inflation for a long time now - for everyone except the most wealthy.

The government has other levers that they could pull, of course.

Perhaps bring energy costs down by regulation, or subsidise bills via windfall taxes on the enormous profits generated by the big energy companies (Shell, for example, £5bn profit in 2022!).

Banks will be in similar positions now, high interest rates will generate enormous returns for them - let's have a bit back, eh.

They could bring in higher taxes for top earners too. £25m in bonuses for BOE staff this year, for example, but the rest of us have to tighten our belts.

Right now the Government's washing their hands of the problem. The only remedy to the pain the rate rises are causing, again hurting mostly working people of relatively limited means, is the Mortgage Charter. Without getting into the boring detail I've been in a good few meetings about that where I work (a building society), and the overwhelming opinion is that it's not going to help many people at all. In fact it will leave a lot in far worse positions. Expect the government to fudge something else when that becomes obvious...

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

And in a nutshell, imho, there's the problem. The BOE have only one lever to control inflation - interest rates.

Raising them will take money out of people's pockets, but there's very little to suggest that this bout of inflation is a result of paying (most) people too much. In fact real earnings have lagged behind inflation for a long time now - for everyone except the most wealthy.

The government has other levers that they could pull, of course.

Perhaps bring energy costs down by regulation, or subsidise bills via windfall taxes on the enormous profits generated by the big energy companies (Shell, for example, £5bn profit in 2022!).

Banks will be in similar positions now, high interest rates will generate enormous returns for them - let's have a bit back, eh.

They could bring in higher taxes for top earners too. £25m in bonuses for BOE staff this year, for example, but the rest of us have to tighten our belts.

Right now the Government's washing their hands of the problem. The only remedy to the pain the rate rises are causing, again hurting mostly working people of relatively limited means, is the Mortgage Charter. Without getting into the boring detail I've been in a good few meetings about that where I work (a building society), and the overwhelming opinion is that it's not going to help many people at all. In fact it will leave a lot in far worse positions. Expect the government to fudge something else when that becomes obvious...

That’s right but the boe are part of the nasty establishment against the people who the conservatives are looking out for oh and Farage

 

[shmmeee]

I’ll be honest as a chess player and someone quite strongly involved with junior chess locally, it’s a good thing he’s doing and won’t cost much.

What’s it actually doing in an age of free online chess? I do quite like the idea of chess boards in parks, but that’s mostly cos I like parks and want people in them.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

What’s it actually doing in an age of free online chess? I do quite like the idea of chess boards in parks, but that’s mostly cos I like parks and want people in them.

The club we run in Coventry on weekends has 40 kids turning up every week and a waiting list of several dozen. The social side of it really makes the difference to the kids.

 

[shmmeee]

The club we run in Coventry on weekends has 40 kids turning up every week and a waiting list of several dozen. The social side of it really makes the difference to the kids.

I still feel general funding for youth activities would be just as well spent. But maybe that’s cos I’m shit at chess

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

The club we run in Coventry on weekends has 40 kids turning up every week and a waiting list of several dozen. The social side of it really makes the difference to the kids.

Do you work with Paul?

 

[wingy]

Spain's inflation rate 2% legislated for apparently.

 

[clint van damme]

Spain's inflation rate 2% legislated for apparently.

They've implemented policies that would never be implemented here, it basically boils down to taxing the rich, and that won't happen in this country.
And they've done it while keeping their interest rate at 4%.

 

[fernandopartridge]

They've implemented policies that would never be implemented here, it basically boils down to taxing the rich, and that won't happen in this country.
And they've done it while keeping their interest rate at 4%.

They've regulated prices haven't they?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

 

[CCFCSteve]

Spain's inflation rate 2% legislated for apparently.

Yeah, they did and successfully to be fair. However, the main driver for inflation was energy and they have kept the cost to government as low as possible….

Spanish imports of Russian gas jump in May, nearly 28% of total

Russia provided 27.9% of Spain's gas imports in May, up from 11.9% a year earlier, Spanish government data showed on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Spain Boosts Russia LNG Imports 84% While EU Urges Less Reliance

Spain’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas have soared 84% since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, highlighting how dependent Europe remains on Moscow despite efforts to slash energy ties.

www.bloomberg.com

Debt to gdp ratio is also 113%. Not knocking you wingy, but that’s the thing with these Guardian articles, same as the Biden one yesterday, there’s no balance. That’s not to say spains way is wrong, on a personal leve, I like some of the steps they’ve taken and wish we’d done the same, just that this is a tiny snapshot in time/one issue so impossible to tell. But either way, if it meant buying cheap gas or oil from Putin, I’ll suffer the higher inflation.

Ps and after all that the ruling socialist party still lost the recent election. Some people are never happy . Also made me wonder whether the inflation policy was driven by what was best for the country or what might help win the election. Who knows

 

[Grendel]

They've implemented policies that would never be implemented here, it basically boils down to taxing the rich, and that won't happen in this country.
And they've done it while keeping their interest rate at 4%.

Yet in the general election the Conservative party gained the most seats and now there is political deadlock....

It has one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe (over double the average in the EU zone), 27% of children live in poverty and as has been said has formed an energy strategy by purchasing far more cheap Russian gas

 

[skybluetony176]

Yeah, they did and successfully to be fair. However, the main driver for inflation was energy and they have kept the cost to government as low as possible….

Spanish imports of Russian gas jump in May, nearly 28% of total

Russia provided 27.9% of Spain's gas imports in May, up from 11.9% a year earlier, Spanish government data showed on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Spain Boosts Russia LNG Imports 84% While EU Urges Less Reliance

Spain’s imports of Russian liquefied natural gas have soared 84% since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, highlighting how dependent Europe remains on Moscow despite efforts to slash energy ties.

www.bloomberg.com

Debt to gdp ratio is also 113%. Not knocking you wingy, but that’s the thing with these Guardian articles, same as the Biden one yesterday, there’s no balance. That’s not to say spains way is wrong, on a personal leve, I like some of the steps they’ve taken and wish we’d done the same, just that this is a tiny snapshot in time/one issue so impossible to tell. But either way, if it meant buying cheap gas or oil from Putin, I’ll suffer the higher inflation.

Ps and after all that the ruling socialist party still lost the recent election. Some people are never happy . Also made me wonder whether the inflation policy was driven by what was best for the country or what might help win the election. Who knows

Well, just for balance .Our debt to GDP ratio hit just over 100% last month, for the first time since the 60’s. We also have the problem that Interest rates are driving our debt up, couple that with virtually zero GDP growth we’re well on the way to catching Spain up. In fact Spains GDP growth is running at about 2% and its debt to GDP ratio is falling, 5% in 2022 alone. On current trends of debt vs GDP the only real question in comparison to Spain is will we pass Spain on our way up while they’re on their way down.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Do you work with Paul?

Yep known him for years.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I still feel general funding for youth activities would be just as well spent. But maybe that’s cos I’m shit at chess

No reason why they can’t do both!

 

[Grendel]

Well, just for balance .Our debt to GDP ratio hit just over 100% last month, for the first time since the 60’s. We also have the problem that Interest rates are driving our debt up, couple that with virtually zero GDP growth we’re well on the way to catching Spain up. In fact Spains GDP growth is running at about 2% and its debt to GDP ratio is falling, 5% in 2022 alone. On current trends of debt vs GDP the only real question in comparison to Spain is will we pass Spain on our way up while they’re on their way down.

Doubt we will get to 13% unemployment

Interesting no discussion on their energy policy

Debt to GDP isn’t really relevant to if a society is functioning well or not

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Doubt we will get to 13% unemployment

Interesting no discussion on their energy policy

Debt to GDP isn’t really relevant to if a society is functioning well or not

Wouldn’t say our society is functioning brilliantly would you?

 

[clint van damme]

They've regulated prices haven't they?

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Yes, on rents and utilities.
Also Travel, but I'm not sure if that's capped or subsidised.

 

[clint van damme]

Yet in the general election the Conservative party gained the most seats and now there is political deadlock....

It has one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe (over double the average in the EU zone), 27% of children live in poverty and as has been said has formed an energy strategy by purchasing far more cheap Russian gas

So better than us on child poverty and the issues I mentioned.

 

[Grendel]

So better than us on child poverty and the issues I mentioned.

Sorry it was old data. Spain is now in 2023 33.3% - guess that’s why the conservatives made large gains in the last election

 

[CCFCSteve]

Well, just for balance .Our debt to GDP ratio hit just over 100% last month, for the first time since the 60’s. We also have the problem that Interest rates are driving our debt up, couple that with virtually zero GDP growth we’re well on the way to catching Spain up. In fact Spains GDP growth is running at about 2% and its debt to GDP ratio is falling, 5% in 2022 alone. On current trends of debt vs GDP the only real question in comparison to Spain is will we pass Spain on our way up while they’re on their way down.

Yep, agree, fair enough. I’m aware of us hitting 100%, people were up in arms about it, which is why I’ve flagged gdp/debt ratio on US thread and here as it’s one of the considerations together with inflation, unemployment etc. The main point was that the latest guardian article held Spain out to be the beacon of inflation control when in actual fact they’ve stifled it partly by buying cheap Russian gas….not sure why we bother if everyone finds that acceptable.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Well, just for balance .Our debt to GDP ratio hit just over 100% last month, for the first time since the 60’s. We also have the problem that Interest rates are driving our debt up, couple that with virtually zero GDP growth we’re well on the way to catching Spain up. In fact Spains GDP growth is running at about 2% and its debt to GDP ratio is falling, 5% in 2022 alone. On current trends of debt vs GDP the only real question in comparison to Spain is will we pass Spain on our way up while they’re on their way down.

Isn’t Japan’s ratio something ridiculous? And it has been for many years.

 

[skybluetony176]

Wouldn’t say our society is functioning brilliantly would you?

Depends on which end of society you are. If you’re wealthy you’ve never had it so good and the wealthier you are the better it gets.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Isn’t Japan’s ratio something ridiculous? And it has been for many years.

Yeah, 250% and there could be trouble ahead. They’ve been artificially suppressing rates (which they’d pay on debt) with central bank bond buying but the system is creaking due to inflation. They can’t raise rates because if they do debt will spiral further out of control. Most of the West have varying degrees of risk around this happening. Potential shitshow !

Edit - part of solution will probably be print more money, debase currencies further

 

[CCFCSteve]

This is what’s happened to Japanese yen in last five years. Bearing in mind the pounds been weak post brexit. Also put dollar/yen for comparison. Basically their currency has been debasing due to policy/printing (sure there’s other stuff as well)

 

[skybluetony176]

Yep, agree, fair enough. I’m aware of us hitting 100%, people were up in arms about it, which is why I’ve flagged gdp/debt ratio on US thread and here as it’s one of the considerations together with inflation, unemployment etc. The main point was that the latest guardian article held Spain out to be the beacon of inflation control when in actual fact they’ve stifled it partly by buying cheap Russian gas….not sure why we bother if everyone finds that acceptable.

Again in the interest of balance energy is only one area of inflation. We’re being hit all over the place. Food inflation in Spain for example is running at about 6% in the UK it’s about 17.5% and is the main driver of inflation in the UK.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Yeah, 250% and there could be trouble ahead. They’ve been artificially suppressing rates (which they’d pay on debt) with central bank bond buying but the system is creaking due to inflation. They can’t raise rates because if they do debt will spiral further out of control. Most of the West have varying degrees of risk around this happening. Potential shitshow !

Edit - part of solution will probably be print more money, debase currencies further

President Xi on standby to capitalise.

 

[skybluetony176]

This is what’s happened to Japanese yen in last five years. Bearing in mind the pounds been weak post brexit. Also put dollar/yen for comparison. Basically their currency has been debasing due to policy/printing (sure there’s other stuff as well)

View attachment 31171
View attachment 31172

I think japans biggest problem over the last couple of decades has been a growing older population while growth in the working population has stagnated meaning that the economy has stagnated too. Saw something not that long ago (might have been a despatches report on C4) that Japan is actively seeking immigration to combat it from other Asian countries, specifically Vietnam. China is also facing similar issues with its population balance, hence an end to the one long standing one child policy.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I think japans biggest problem over the last couple of decades has been a growing older population while growth in the working population has stagnated meaning that the economy has stagnated too. Saw something not that long ago (might have been a despatches report on C4) that Japan is actively seeking immigration to combat it from other Asian countries, specifically Vietnam. China is also facing similar issues with its population balance, hence an end to the one long standing one child policy.

Japan’s problem is also a global one. Birth rate slowing down because of economic pressure and societal changes, while people live longer due to improved living standards and medicine. Granted Japan is experiencing this sooner because they have generally healthier lifestyles in the first place.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Again in the interest of balance energy is only one area of inflation. We’re being hit all over the place. Food inflation in Spain for example is running at about 6% in the UK it’s about 17.5% and is the main driver of inflation in the UK.

Energy was the main initial driver for most of the other big jumps this instance*. Energy is higher so it costs more to run machines to make stuff (food, products etc), transport it etc. Due to climate I guess they can grow more than us without additional heat/light costs involved.

Then if inflation remains high, people need to be paid more (secondary affect), this then feeds though to higher production costs pushing up prices. And round we go

If everyone had carried on buying cheap oil and gas from Russia, wholesale prices would’ve stayed low and I’d imagine inflation would be a fraction of what it is now

*also supply side issues post covid but that was more goods and high transport costs (due to demand) immediately post pandemic