Stop thinking the Hartlepool result is any good (5 Viewers)

[Otis]

Your 2 points/game is based on the past though Grendel...so it's speculation. Results are generally unpredictable in this league at the moment so in reality it may be a lot less & therefore more achievable.

Well possibly, but realistically we have to look at history to give us a considered indication of what is likely.

Last 15 years, 6th place,

73
71
80
76
76
75
71
71
73
81
78
75
82
76
70


Pretty much tells you we are more than likely going to need 70 points to have any chance.

So, 28 games, 50 points. Avg 1.79 points per game. So basically pretty much 2 points a game.

 

---

[ExmouthNeil]

You can only beat the team that is put in front of you.... Let's hope we win 5-nil ever game but we all know it's not gonna happen

But just try our best to beat the next team we play....


That's all we SHOULD ask.......

PUSB, every game!

 

[Astute]

Yes they are football results. However, we need 2 points per game from now on in. Over 46 games would you say this squad is a 92 point squad? I may get taken in by it if we were not going to lose the top scorer and most energetic central midfielder in January. Ask this - is this "strike force" a 92 points a season attack;

McDonald
Elliot
Ball
O Donovan

No it isn't.

Stop looking at our squad and picking it to bits for long enough to look at other squads we are up against. How many of them look like 92 points a season?

It is more than having the best 11 players. We all know Norwich had the best 11 than Manure did

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Well possibly, but realistically we have to look at history to give us a considered indication of what is likely.

Last 15 years, 6th place,

73
71
80
76
76
75
71
71
73
81
78
75
82
76
70


Pretty much tells you we are more than likely going to need 70 points to have any chance.

So, 28 games, 50 points. Avg 1.79 points per game. So basically pretty much 2 points a game.

1. Who said we "have to"??? I choose not to believe or to accept all that so-called "experts" say/claim
2. So avg 1.79 is "pretty much" 2? That's nearly 10% less! I'll bet if you went to buy something priced at £179 - you wouldn't buy it if they said"Just give give us £200 guv" now would you???

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Oh & I'll bet the Wright brothers listened to the "experts" when they said words to suggest that it'd never fly.
Is everyone's reality the same? No...that's why records are broken, discoveries are made & inventions created - you base your reality on the past - I base mine on hope...the true reality is the current - which is a 5-0 win & 3 points.

 

[Grendel]

Oh & I'll bet the Wright brothers listened to the "experts" when they said words to suggest that it'd never fly.
Is everyone's reality the same? No...that's why records are broken, discoveries are made & inventions created - you base your reality on the past - I base mine on hope...the true reality is the current - which is a 5-0 win & 3 points.

The Wright brothers designed a machine to fly they didn't just jump off a cliff flapped their arms and hope for the best.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Oh & I'll bet the Wright brothers listened to the "experts" when they said words to suggest that it'd never fly.
Is everyone's reality the same? No...that's why records are broken, discoveries are made & inventions created - you base your reality on the past - I base mine on hope...the true reality is the current - which is a 5-0 win & 3 points.

So what do we make of the tonking at Shrewsbury or losing at home to Scunthorpe? Taking results in isolation is folly-you need to look at the general trend. That trend being mid table form that will likely result in a mid table finish.

 

[dongonzalos]

So what do we make of the tonking at Shrewsbury or losing at home to Sc-unithorpe? Taking results in isolation is folly-you need to look at the general trend. That trend being mid table form that will likely result in a mid table finish.

How long is a trend?.

Last 10 games we are 8th in the form table above Tranmere averaging 1.7 points per game.

Last 5 games we are 7th averaging 1.8 points.

Last 3 games we are 6th in the form table averaging 2 points per game.

Last game we were great, is that the kinds trends you were looking for?

 

[dongonzalos]

However Colchester over the last 10 games are 3rd, so they are no mugs.

 

[Grendel]

How long is a trend?.

Last 10 games we are 8th in the form table above Tranmere averaging 1.7 points per game.

Last 5 games we are 7th averaging 1.8 points.

Last 3 games we are 6th in the form table averaging 2 points per game.

Last game we were great us that the kinds trends you were looking for?

Take Tranmere then. How long before we catch them on that analysis?

 

[dongonzalos]

Over the last 10 we both picked up 17 points but our goal difference was better. Give me a minute to review the previous ten. Then maybe do a statistical guess and I mean guess on the next ten based on that pattern.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

How long is a trend?.

Last 10 games we are 8th in the form table above Tranmere averaging 1.7 points per game.

Last 5 games we are 7th averaging 1.8 points.

Last 3 games we are 6th in the form table averaging 2 points per game.

Last game we were great, is that the kinds trends you were looking for?

The problem with extrapolation is it assumes that everything carries on at the same rate it has previously-and that rate depends on how far back you go allowing you to manipulate statistics however you please. Football is inherently unpredictable in the long run so anyone using current form to say that a top 6 finish is in the bag is heavily misguided.

 

[dongonzalos]

Tranmere picked up 20 points in their first 8 games.
Followed by 17 points in their last 10.

We picked up 3 points in our first 8
Followed by 17 in our last ten.

Statistical pattern analysis would suggest that we will replace them in 6th spot on April 27th 2013, having beaten Notts County 2-1.

We will smuggly wave goodbye to lee Hughes the same day.

I will also treat myself to a cool leffe naughty.

Is that specific enough

 

[Grendel]

Well possibly, but realistically we have to look at history to give us a considered indication of what is likely.

Last 15 years, 6th place,

73
71
80
76
76
75
71
71
73
81
78
75
82
76
70


Pretty much tells you we are more than likely going to need 70 points to have any chance.

So, 28 games, 50 points. Avg 1.79 points per game. So basically pretty much 2 points a game.

Average is 75 points so 55 points in all probability.

 

[dongonzalos]

The problem with extrapolation is it assumes that everything carries on at the same rate it has previously-and that rate depends on how far back you go allowing you to manipulate statistics however you please. Football is inherently unpredictable in the long run so anyone using current form to say that a top 6 finish is in the bag is heavily misguided.

Thought you asked for trends though?

 

[dongonzalos]

However I concur if anything in football is predictable it is its unpredictability, which is why I love it so much.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Thought you asked for trends though?

We won 't have a good enough idea till we've played everyone at least once. Allows for better 'trending'.

 

[dongonzalos]

We won 't have a good enough idea till we've played everyone at least once. Allows for better 'trending'.

Like it good policy.

However despite the fact Grendel will give me dogs abuse for this.

I personally am going to remove those 5 defeats from my trends as they were ridiculous and not s true reflection of our squad.

However it does highlight that the players are a sensitive bunch of big girls blouses.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I'm not necessarily saying we going to do this but, our season ISN'T over yet, still a long way off, look at Reading last season, mid table and 21 (around that) points off top, they won the league so anything is possible. Also, the league is at it's weakest in years and I think we won't be seeing the top teams with 90+ points.

Realistically, playoffs can be achieved, automatic, ATM, no way!

 

[SkyblueBazza]

How long is a trend?.

Last 10 games we are 8th in the form table above Tranmere averaging 1.7 points per game.

Last 5 games we are 7th averaging 1.8 points.

Last 3 games we are 6th in the form table averaging 2 points per game.

Last game we were great, is that the kinds trends you were looking for?

Ahhh - now before I read on...at least one response I's likely to insinuate that you are a hopeless romantic, ridiculous optimist or indeed simply insane. Whilst they are realistic & all-knowing.
We could try to simply ignore ten & carry on happily in our unreal but happy world...& just enjoy the ride up the table (looking as you say at the latest trend...note the papers/bookies form guides often only quote the last 5/6 games too?).
Let's leave doom merchants, motivation hoovers, negative heads to wallow in their real world & continue speculating that McG is not wanting to stay in January, Robins will be sacked, we'll be playing on a Sunday league pitch...in a Sunday league, the club will go into administration, the earth will be hit by a meteorite & we're doomed Mr Mainwaring.

 

[Otis]

If you live in the real world like I, then you are a realist not a negative head.

I am not at all negative. Just a realist who looks at history and at the club I know and love, and at what the manager himself is saying.

That's not being negative. It's being rational and a pragmatist.

I see it appears we may have started to have gone back to the dark days of last season on here where it was 'if you're not with me you're against me.'

From I have observed i have only seen one or two on here who say we are going to get relegated.

Please let's not go back to the fractions we had last year. It's all a bit sad and pathetic to be honest.

PUSB.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

The problem with extrapolation is it assumes that everything carries on at the same rate it has previously-and that rate depends on how far back you go allowing you to manipulate statistics however you please. Football is inherently unpredictable in the long run so anyone using current form to say that a top 6 finish is in the bag is heavily misguided.

Well said that man - I haven't made or seen a single post from us positive heads that says anything is in the bag. What we are suggesting is that if we keep the good form,since Robins took over, going - we will be there or thereabouts.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

If you live in the real world like I, then you are a realist not a negative head.

I am not at all negative. Just a realist who looks at history and at the club I know and love, and at what the manager himself is saying.

That's not being negative. It's being rational and a pragmatist.

I see it appears we may have started to have gone back to the dark days of last season on here where it was 'if you're not with me you're against me.'

From I have observed i have only seen one or two on here who say we are going to get relegated.

Please let's not go back to the fractions we had last year. It's all a bit sad and pathetic to be honest.

PUSB.

So by implication you could be suggesting those that differ in opinion & outlook are:not realistic; looking at the wrong history; irrational; unpragmatic; not listening to the right people (based on your words) which is indeed setting yourself up against others.

What I do agree with is that whatever stance any of us takes - we love & support the club, feel passionate enough to post about it & simply differ in opinion. Maybe we all need to respect others opinions more.

 

[Otis]

Not sure how you can look at the wrong history. :thinking about:

No club in over 30 years has gone from where we were to top 6. That's history. It's not the right or wrong history it's just history.

I respect other people's opinions on here. By the same token I get a lot of slating from a few just because I say I would be happy with 12th place.

And if we win again tonight with a decent performance and then win again on Saturday, I'm sure there will be many more optimistic people on here come Saturday night.

I hope we win both. Just don't think we will though. A draw tonight would be fantastic.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Not sure how you can look at the wrong history. :thinking about:

No club in over 30 years has gone from where we were to top 6. That's history. It's not the right or wrong history it's just history.

I respect other people's opinions on here. By the same token I get a lot of slating from a few just because I say I would be happy with 12th place.

And if we win again tonight with a decent performance and then win again on Saturday, I'm sure there will be many more optimistic people on here come Saturday night.

I hope we win both. Just don't think we will though. A draw tonight would be fantastic.

Now we're beginning to agree. The right history I's the one we choose to look at. IMO we can only fairly judge the team under Robins by looking at the results in the Robins era. Whilst performances are not that convincing, results seem to be at the level we need...& if we can improve performance might even get better.

I also agree that a draw tonight would be great...but doubt it will be easy unless we surpass recent performances by a long way...but here's hoping

 

[Otis]

7 points from the 3 games would be a great return.

Pompey are on a slippery slope at the moment, having lost 5 league games in a row, so you have to fancy our chances of getting something from the game there.

Tonight is a much tougher prospect.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

This is it...& Walsall after that - they are on the slide too. A few weeks ago I gave my opinion that 6-7 wins in the next 10 L1 games was possible (not expecting the Scuni result - but thought Pompey at the time would be a much tougher one than it looks now)...& we have 3 wins in 4 so far so still on track. And I do think that will put us in the play-off mix. January dealings will perhaps make or break us then.

 

[Astute]

Not sure how you can look at the wrong history. :thinking about:

No club in over 30 years has gone from where we were to top 6. That's history. It's not the right or wrong history it's just history.

You keep mentioning this fact whilst knowing Palace came from the bottom 3 towards the end of December and got promoted. It is now November and we are 16th. Are you sure no team has ever got to the playoffs from 16th with games left in November and only 11 points away?

 

[Otis]

In League One.

Only looked at League One because that is the league we are in.

Can have a look at Peterborough or Ipswich though if you're desperate!

 

[ps1948]

Surprised this didn't get a few comments after the Colchester match! Unless I've missed the newer thread.....
Just blowing up my false optimism balloon again - complete with several puncture repairs

 

[dongonzalos]

Ahhh - now before I read on...at least one response I's likely to insinuate that you are a hopeless romantic, ridiculous optimist or indeed simply insane. Whilst they are realistic & all-knowing.
We could try to simply ignore ten & carry on happily in our unreal but happy world...& just enjoy the ride up the table (looking as you say at the latest trend...note the papers/bookies form guides often only quote the last 5/6 games too?).
Let's leave doom merchants, motivation hoovers, negative heads to wallow in their real world & continue speculating that McG is not wanting to stay in January, Robins will be sacked, we'll be playing on a Sunday league pitch...in a Sunday league, the club will go into administration, the earth will be hit by a meteorite & we're doomed Mr Mainwaring.

Only just saw this, very good

 

[dongonzalos]

Tranmere picked up 20 points in their first 8 games.
Followed by 17 points in their last 10.

We picked up 3 points in our first 8
Followed by 17 in our last ten.

Statistical pattern analysis would suggest that we will replace them in 6th spot on April 27th 2013, having beaten Notts County 2-1.

We will smuggly wave goodbye to lee Hughes the same day.

I will also treat myself to a cool leffe naughty.

Is that specific enough

It would be very funny if this happens

 

[LJC_CCFC]

It would be very funny if this happens

Lee Hughes is at port vale...

 

[dongonzalos]

Lee Hughes is at port vale...

It was posted on the 22nd of November mate in a debate with Grendel over the fact this squad was good enough to get in the top six.

 

[covcity4life]

stop bumping old threads