Agree with this. Would be a big mistake but they’re currently the party of self harm so wouldn’t shock me at all. Also by moving labour to centre left it makes it very difficult for Tories to operate in that centre space, especially after 14 years in government, so they might naturally edge further right…well, initially at least.
Do you want to discuss boring politics? (169 Viewers)
- Thread starter mrtrench
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Agree with this. Would be a big mistake but they’re currently the party of self harm so wouldn’t shock me at all. Also by moving labour to centre left it makes it very difficult for Tories to operate in that centre space, especially after 14 years in government, so they might naturally edge further right…well, initially at least.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Expand on how that’s a lie
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I can’t see it. He’s too divisive. Johnson only won because he was up against Corbyn who was even more divisive and because Brexit was still in doubt. Any normal politician at a normal time would wipe the floor with them because of how our electoral system works. Ideologues don’t tend to get broad support across the country.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Think they’ll go full Labour 2015 and elect a head banger in opposition. All the moderates left under Johnson so don’t even need to go through that stage. Though people talk about Modaunt who is pretty centrist so will be interesting to see. Can’t see an obvious figure in the right but there’s plenty of nutters who will fancy a go.
Of course a big question is who will be left with a seat after this election.
That's a figure the Tories have made up.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
They said all their plans were funded so if there’s a £40bn black hole, someone at HQ is either lying or terrible at maths.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
There’s not. The £40bn figure makes some absolutely mental assumptions.
Yeah, the ‘no tax rises’ in next Parliament position from both main parties is bollocks
The one thing that I’m wondering though is whether Labour hope that maybe getting a closer trading arrangement with the EU might boost gdp/growth thereby reducing any hole. If I was them I’d explore this.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Mordaunt is odds-on to lose her seat. It genuinely wouldn’t surprise me to see Farage stage a takeover of the tories if the polls get any worst for the tories. Gaffe after gaffe is gifting Labour an easy election.
Yeah, not sure if it’s that high but pretty sure both have a hole during next Parliament unless cuts are made. Can’t see Labour cutting so they will have to find cash from tax rises
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I hope you’re right but I have my doubts.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
There’s no mechanism by which he could take over the Tories and by all accounts he hates their guts. Unless he gets elected (big if considering his record) defects post election, and wins a leadership contest. Which is three quite unlikely scenarios.
I think he wants to be an AfD/PPV type
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yeah both do, the numbers for post 2024 have been fantasy for a while.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I reckon his plan is to try and get elected and then defect when the time is right. Unfortunately, I think he’ll get elected this time.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Reform don’t have the localised support or the ground campaign to win seats. He’s have to take over the Tories and I just can’t see it.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yeah he may well do. I don’t think he’d have run unless he was pretty sure. Weirdly the best thing Labour could do if they wanted to stop it would be stand down and advise people to vote Tory. Which ain’t going to happen.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Ask tories how right wing the government is and the answer you’ll get is ‘they’re not’. Part of the reason Reform got to 13% in the polls is the perception that the government is basically ‘social democrat’.
I believe Sunak when he says he’s Thatcherite. The economic shocks of COVID and the war in Ukraine have provided unprecedented demands for government intervention and public expenditure. All which needs to be bought and paid for.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Farage really is Enoch Powell as of today. It’s about the only biography I’ve read.
He was the first populist and would easily have swept to power other than his blind vanity and overall belief he was the cleverest man on the planet.
Workers threatened to strike when he was removed from the shadow cabinet. He frequently mocked Heath for his dumb ignorance and stupidity. Even the rivers of blood speech was arrogance as he thought it was clever to show his superiority in Latin and compare immigration to the Tiber.
He was also of course - along with his long time best friend Michael Foot - anti EEC and anti immigration.
If he wasn’t so arrogant he would have been prime minister. Working classes loved Powell.
It’s odd his stupid show off Rivers of Blood speech gets all the attention. His Water Tower speech showed him as a rather inept stupid man whose policies have essentially ruined the NHS
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
To be clear I mean he’d do it via the Tories rather than Reform.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Why not? If he gets elected in Clacton there’s every chance. The Tory MPs will be reduced to a rump and he’s a character that is overwhelmingly popular among their membership.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
That’s the fringes for you. People think Starmer and Blair are right wing.
Actually having to do things tends to lead to being quite centrist or being Liz Truss.
I really don’t think a mental party would last here like on the continent where coalitions mean you can graft some sense into the party to hide behind. Farage or similar gets in I think he’d fuck things up so bad people would forget entirely about immigration and as the Tories have shown even if you really want to be mean to migrants the reality of immigration tends to mean you can’t.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I think it would be the end of the Tories if he did.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Because their spending plans are going to require increased taxes or slashed public services - I wouldnt described Martin Lewis as a Tory but he ripped Ainsworth apart on it the other day. The promises don’t meet the required spend.
Northants Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Im no Tarzan fan but he clocked Farage as Mosley reincarnate a looong time ago.
If the elections already won the next biggest fight is stopping him wining Clacton.
If the elections already won the next biggest fight is stopping him wining Clacton.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Blair economically accepted free markets and introduced market reforms in the public sector (education and healthcare) and achieved budget surpluses. So can see why the Labour left brands him ‘right wing’. Balanced that out with increases in welfare spending, so he’d fit in as a One Nation Tory in another lifetime.
This idea that you need to be centrist is true of the consensus we live in today. The Blair-Brown years established an era of consensus politics that’s probably coming to an end. Personally, I don’t think Labour will fix the issues around; healthcare, housing, economic growth or immigration. They at least deserve a shot at fixing it. We’re in for another era of stagflation akin to the 70s in my view.
From there, who knows what will happen? If Farage stages a hostile takeover or the Tories find their own answer will interesting.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
LOL at calling budget surplus right wing!
It’s not about consensus. It’s about what’s possible in a modern world. 1970s style politics can’t work because of how global capital and to an extent labour is these days. Internet politics doesn’t actually work IRL. As Truss found out.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
If Labour can survive Corbyn, I think the Tories could survive Farage. The latter is actually a popular populist and Corbyn had net negative ratings from Day 1.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Corbyn was a lot closer to your average Labour voter than Farage is to the average Tory.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
He was until he fudged the Brexit debate
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I’m not calling it right wing, but balanced budgets are associated with ‘small government’ and you won’t get many on the left calling for budget surpluses.
It’s contextual Shmmeee, who was calling Blair RW? Certainly not tories but the Labour left.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Exactly. The same as the people calling Sunak LW are the Tory right.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Two questions:
1) Why is Reform overtaking the tories in the polls?
2) Why is Farage so popular among Tory members?
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
We’re saying the same thing here.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Also popular with traditional working class Labour voters