Do you want to discuss boring politics? (150 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

Yeah I was the only person under 60 in my polling station. Probably why I got grabbed for an exit poll lol

 

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[skybluetony176]

Going to put my little x in the Green box. Could be Labour's only loss tonight.

I can't wait to see the faces of some of the cunts losing their seats.

You in Bristol?

 

[clint van damme]

Ironically, immigration filters into housing, education, healthcare and investment in society.

If this next government doesn’t get a handle on immigration, expect the centre of politics to crumble. As it has in France, Netherlands and soon, in Germany and more. As with Brexit wiping out UKIP, if immigration is tightened, you kill Reform as a political force. Left unchecked, Reform could do some real damage in Labour ‘red wall’ constituencies and elsewhere.

Denmark is a good example of what a centre to centre-left government can achieve on immigration. It’s a non-issue because cross-party, they’ve kept levels low.

I agree. My personal opinions on immigration aside I think this is what will happen.

 

[David O'Day]

everyone was pretty young in my polling station at 8am, guess the old folk are still in bed at that time

 

[SBAndy]

The economy can’t be as bad as the last 14 years, the last 8 especially. It doesn’t need sweeping reform it needs basic competence. We are so far off other countries in basic stuff, all a new govt has to do is basic tried and tested developing country economic strategy stuff and we’re laughing.

Growth stopped the day the Tories took power.

We’ve had about 50 fiscal events in the last 10 years (I can’t actually remember the figure so that’s a bit of artistic licence). Business can’t invest with confidence as they know the rules will probably change in 3 months’ time.

 

[skybluetony176]

But if people actually paid attention they'd know Reform are excluding health and social care workers from their targets. Who make up a huge number of immigrants. So in fact they would do very little to change anything, just treat them more like shit.

Apparently 75% last year. They’re also excluding other skilled workers from any “ban” list although they’ve provided no definitive list so best case scenario they’re going to cut immigration by 25%. A lot of people are going to have to leave the country to hit their net zero immigration pledge. A pledge that only has value if you’re shouting it from the sidelines, in government it would be undeliverable.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Flip flop. Numbers again. I thought it was about the message of illegal immigration?

I agree on Denmark though. A template for how to handle the far right.

I don't anything about Denmark but their net migration rate is higher than the UK in recent years. Immigration is hugely overstated as an issue in the UK.



UK

 

[CCFCSteve]

Ironically, immigration filters into housing, education, healthcare and investment in society.

If this next government doesn’t get a handle on immigration, expect the centre of politics to crumble. As it has in France, Netherlands and soon, in Germany and more. As with Brexit wiping out UKIP, if immigration is tightened, you kill Reform as a political force. Left unchecked, Reform could do some real damage in Labour ‘red wall’ constituencies and elsewhere.

Denmark is a good example of what a centre to centre-left government can achieve on immigration. It’s a non-issue because cross-party, they’ve kept levels low.

Im not sure about crumble but I do expect an increase in support of the right if we don’t get a handle on the numbers and/or at least have a clear plan/messaging around why higher net numbers are required

The pressure and focus might ease in the coming months though. Naturally the migration numbers should decrease due to less refugees from Ukraine and steps already taken by the Tories. Add to that inflations now under better control, interest rates should start to drop, growth is anticipated to be a bit better than expected and there’s likely to be a new government bounce. All of these things should help improve the feel around the country which means people will focus more on the positives rather than the negatives. How long all that lasts

 

[shmmeee]

I don't anything about Denmark but their net migration rate is higher than the UK in recent years. Immigration is hugely overstated as an issue in the UK.

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UK

But they’ve assuaged public concern with lots of talk of immigrants committing to Danish life or going home, prisoners not released if their country won’t take them back, etc. I think they’re quite robustly secular with stuff like hijab bans as well. Otherwise normal social democrats afaict.

 

[skybluetony176]

We’ve had about 50 fiscal events in the last 10 years (I can’t actually remember the figure so that’s a bit of artistic licence). Business can’t invest with confidence as they know the rules will probably change in 3 months’ time.

Labour are pledging one fiscal event a year from memory. I think that’s exactly why industry backed them in that open letter saying exactly as you say, they can’t invest with confidence under the Tories.

 

[fernandopartridge]

But they’ve assuaged public concern with lots of talk of immigrants committing to Danish life or going home, prisoners not released if their country won’t take them back, etc. I think they’re quite robustly secular with stuff like hijab bans as well. Otherwise normal social democrats afaict.

That stuff has been tried in the UK for years, remember the 'Britishness' test which I think was actually a Labour act.

 

[clint van damme]

I don't anything about Denmark but their net migration rate is higher than the UK in recent years. Immigration is hugely overstated as an issue in the UK.

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UK

A lot of its about visibility for a lot of people, get rid of a load of the barbers and foreign super markets from the high street and a few mosques and they won't even bother with the numbers.

 

[Liquid Gold]

You in Bristol?

the all new Bristol Central

 

[Deleted member 5849]

or at least have a clear plan/messaging around why higher net numbers are required

That's what surprises me, that nobody is actually brave / confident enough to do that. Blair seemed to harness the benefits of immigration - cool Britannia managed to make multiculturalism a positive after all.

I mean we're prepared to state things in black and white elsewhere, so why on earth doesn't somebody do the reverse in this case?

tbf though (as we see on this thread!) you can put the numbers and the whys down as much as you like, and some people will still mutter about 'losing a British culture' or something similar...

 

[Nick]

I don't anything about Denmark but their net migration rate is higher than the UK in recent years. Immigration is hugely overstated as an issue in the UK.

View attachment 36615

UK

Again, doesn't it depend on the type of migration etc?

I know benefit fraud isn't just an "immigrant" thing but shit like this - Members of Britain’s biggest benefit fraud gang jailed for a combined total of more than 25 years | The Crown Prosecution Service

It depends on the context of "migration" that people want to be stopped. I know it is for me, Immigration as a whole is too broad a word.

 

[torchomatic]

Going to put my little x in the Green box. Could be Labour's only loss tonight.

I can't wait to see the faces of some of the cunts losing their seats.

Yes, will look forward to watching crushed Tory MPs at Leisure and Sports Centres around the country during the night.

 

[shmmeee]

That stuff has been tried in the UK for years, remember the 'Britishness' test which I think was actually a Labour act.

It’s all been a bit crap and half hearted though, which to be fair is hugely patriotic of us.

I think some of it can just be rebranding/repackaging existing laws. The one that always sticks out to me is benefits rules around “illegals immigrants” and the Facebook memes about them all getting free houses and cars. It’s obvious bollocks so just bring in a law restating its bollocks and go full PR campaign about how you’re banning illegals immigrants from benefits and British people will be first in the queue for houses, etc.

Do people know that you need to prove the ability to speak English for most visas? Probably not so make it clear “If you come to the UK you must speak English”. Changes virtually nothing but nice black and white messaging for this taken in by memes.

 

[torchomatic]

That's what surprises me, that nobody is actually brave / confident enough to do that. Blair seemed to harness the benefits of immigration - cool Britannia managed to make multiculturalism a positive after all.

I mean we're prepared to state things in black and white elsewhere, so why on earth doesn't somebody do the reverse in this case?

tbf though (as we see on this thread!) you can put the numbers and the whys down as much as you like, and some people will still mutter about 'losing a British culture' or something similar...

Yep. Farage chanting yesterday "We want our country back!". From whom? Who's got our country?

 

[MalcSB]

Are those commitments worth the paper they’re written on? Probably not.

These commitments are constantly referred to, and I think it was skybluetonywho said the EU was on track. There was no response when I posted this EU graph showing the “commitment” will never be achieved even if additional :ensures are introduced. That doesn’t into account that, certainly with the emerging right wing parties, the commitment to net zero seems to be diminishing.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

These commitments are constantly referred to, and I think it was Deleted member 5849 or t9 y who said the EU was on track. There was no response when I posted this EU graph showing the “commitment” will never be achieved even if additional :ensures are introduced. That doesn’t into account that, certainly with the emerging right wing parties, the commitment to net zero seems to be diminishing.

View attachment 36620

Eh? not me guv, I've been pointlessly arguing about immigration and leaving climate denial to the rest of you.

 

[MalcSB]

Eh? not me guv, I've been pointlessly arguing about immigration and leaving climate denial to the rest of you.

Apologies, it was skybluetony, who justifies his flights to Spain on the basis he is a vegetarian.

 

[CCFCSteve]

That's what surprises me, that nobody is actually brave / confident enough to do that. Blair seemed to harness the benefits of immigration - cool Britannia managed to make multiculturalism a positive after all.

I mean we're prepared to state things in black and white elsewhere, so why on earth doesn't somebody do the reverse in this case?

tbf though (as we see on this thread!) you can put the numbers and the whys down as much as you like, and some people will still mutter about 'losing a British culture' or something similar...

The debate is still dominated by the extremes, the zero migrants v the numbers don’t matter it’s all positive

The answer, like with most things, lies in the middle but id imagine it’s very hard to get heard. Someone needs to come up with a coherent plan for starters. Brexit put immigration back in the box for a bit as most were happy there was now some perceived control, however, when the Tories showed this was a myth ie they didn’t have any control still, added to the cost of living crisis, Reform have been able to leverage this and work their way onto the scene

Ultimately if people are feeling like they’re doing alright and stuffs working (can get a docs appt, hospital waiting lists down etc), immigration reduces as an issue

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Apologies, must be skybluetony who justifies his flights to Spain on the basis he is a vegetarian.

Now you are stooping low getting us mixed up!

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Just went to vote. Bit of a circus at the polling station. There was essentially 'two polling stations' in one church hall. A woman standing at the door was checking addresses to make sure people were queuing for the right one. Got moaned at for being in the wrong queue, and then in the end it turned out it was only because I was stood slightly to the side as to be courteous to pedestrians. The other queue was twenty meters away so not even relevant.

I was one of maybe three people under 50 for sure, but a queue of around another twenty people meant it took me 35 minutes to vote. The polling station is 100 yards from my front door here in the UK.

 

[MalcSB]

Now you are stooping low getting us mixed up!

I’ve checked back, It was skybluetony, so apologies for the misidentification. Posts edited to absolve you,

 

[torchomatic]

Just went to vote. Bit of a circus at the polling station. There was essentially 'two polling stations' in one church hall. A woman standing at the door was checking addresses to make sure people were queuing for the right one. Got moaned at for being in the wrong queue, and then in the end it turned out it was only because I was stood slightly to the side as to be courteous to pedestrians. The other queue was twenty meters away so not even relevant.

I was one of maybe three people under 50 for sure, but a queue of around another twenty people meant it took me 35 minutes to vote. The polling station is 100 yards from my front door here in the UK.

The totally pointless folly of voter ID will also slow down proceedings.

 

[shmmeee]

Yep. Farage chanting yesterday "We want our country back!". From whom? Who's got our country?

This is my fault. I met Farage back in the 2000s and did the classic “got your nose” trick, but for the country. In my defence it was awfully funny.

Again, doesn't it depend on the type of migration etc?

I know benefit fraud isn't just an "immigrant" thing but shit like this - Members of Britain’s biggest benefit fraud gang jailed for a combined total of more than 25 years | The Crown Prosecution Service

It depends on the context of "migration" that people want to be stopped. I know it is for me, Immigration as a whole is too broad a word.

I know we’ve got prison capacity issues, but I don’t understand why we don’t instantly deport foreign criminals.

 

[skybluetony176]

A lot of its about visibility for a lot of people, get rid of a load of the barbers and foreign super markets from the high street and a few mosques and they won't even bother with the numbers.

I went to Copenhagen about 18 years ago to watch Northern Ireland vs Denmark in a European qualifier. Got on the train at the airport, got off at one of the city centre stations and behind it was all African shops and a lot of Africans mulling about. I was in Copenhagen previously to that for the millennial celebrations 1999/2000. Didn’t see one African face let alone African shops in the same area, there was quite a few Turks in one particular area with a lot of coffee shops and barbers. I was a bit shocked to see that change in what was probably 6 years but on the whole most Danes seem to have taken it in their stride. Certainly didn’t get the impression that anyone was bothered.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Ultimately if people are feeling like they’re doing alright and stuffs working (can get a docs appt, hospital waiting lists down etc), immigration reduces as an issue

That's the old looking for a scapegoat issue though, must always be someone to blame. Now it's fair to say you'll never get rid of that tendency in all probability, but it's also fair to say that it rears its head with such repetitive monotony (the cast changes, but the song remains the same) that somewhere somebody needs to start offering something different as a message.

This election's unusual, the current Tories have been so bad that there's no need to offer anything positive in return so there goes Labour progressivism. We're still in the zone where Liberals are discredited from 2010, so nobody listens to them. They're also in a Catch 22 where they need a bigger pool of MPs to pick their leader from, to appeal to more people to get that bigger pool of MPs. It does surprise me they've toned down their pro Europe message too as that was their vote winner, just Labour stole some of their clothes last election so they allowed themselves to be pushed to extreme. Now Labour seemingly don't care, it's there as an opening and a USP.

So there's no reason for any positive voices to be heard this election, that's how bad the current government have been. We'll see what happens next election, but it would be nice to think if Tories aren't so mental, although they tend to head for negative messaging anyway, that it would push Labour into a bit of dynamism. If Libs get a few more MPs maybe they get more of a voice again and can offer something unusual... guess we wait and see.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I’ve checked back, It was skybluetony, so apologies for the misidentification. Posts edited to absolve you,

Still harsh though! I've never mixed you up with certain... posters(!)

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Im not sure about crumble but I do expect an increase in support of the right if we don’t get a handle on the numbers and/or at least have a clear plan/messaging around why higher net numbers are required

The pressure and focus might ease in the coming months though. Naturally the migration numbers should decrease due to less refugees from Ukraine and steps already taken by the Tories. Add to that inflations now under better control, interest rates should start to drop, growth is anticipated to be a bit better than expected and there’s likely to be a new government bounce. All of these things should help improve the feel around the country which means people will focus more on the positives rather than the negatives. How long all that lasts

Look at France atm, up until 2017 they were governed by their centre-right and centre-left mainstream parties. Macron comes along and as of the last election held just now, the choice France has is the National Rally, France Unbowed and Macron’s centrist party collapsing into 3rd place.

Immigration has been the primary motivator for growth of the National Rally, specifically among assimilation of ethnic groups and migrants.

The UK finds itself in a similar situation and again, if progress isn’t made then people will rapidly get fed up with Labour as they have with the Tories. Reform is well poised to really make progress because they’re popular among traditional labour voting communities.

I don’t trust Farage on foreign policy and nor do I trust the party as a whole. People like Farage and Tice are Thatcherite-esque tories but the activists and some of the candidates they field? Unsure and I trust them.

@Grendel highlighted the quality of candidates in Coventry NW. I’ll begrudgingly vote Tory (well, a family member will proxy vote) in a vain attempt to avoid a super-majority. A pointless because it’s a safe Labour seat.

Country needs change, I’m just not optimistic a Starmer-led government will lead meaningful change.

 

[MalcSB]

The totally pointless folly of voter ID will also slow down proceedings.

Not in my polling station.

 

[clint van damme]

Look at France atm, up until 2017 they were governed by their centre-right and centre-left mainstream parties. Macron comes along and as of the last election held just now, the choice France has is the National Rally, France Unbowed and Macron’s centrist party collapsing into 3rd place.

Immigration has been the primary motivator for growth of the National Rally, specifically among assimilation of ethnic groups and migrants.

The UK finds itself in a similar situation and again, if progress isn’t made then people will rapidly get fed up with Labour as they have with the Tories. Reform is well poised to really make progress because they’re popular among traditional labour voting communities.

I don’t trust Farage on foreign policy and nor do I trust the party as a whole. People like Farage and Tice are Thatcherite-esque tories but the activists and some of the candidates they field? Unsure and I trust them.

@Grendel highlighted the quality of candidates in Coventry NW. I’ll begrudgingly vote Tory (well, a family member will proxy vote) in a vain attempt to avoid a super-majority. A pointless because it’s a safe Labour seat.

Country needs change, I’m just not optimistic a Starmer-led government will lead meaningful change.

I think you're missing another important point, National Rally dropped its commitment to leaving the EU.
I don't think the French are anywhere near ready for that despite the EUs current unfavourable ratings which I think have a lot to do with Von Der Lyen.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

if progress isn’t made then people will rapidly get fed up with Labour as they have with the Tories.

They might well. It's worth noting however that this Tory government since the last election is genuinely special in its lies, deceit, incompetence and general air of ineptitude. No other givernment in my time has managed anything close to it!

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

This is my fault. I met Farage back in the 2000s and did the classic “got your nose” trick, but for the country. In my defence it was awfully funny.



I know we’ve got prison capacity issues, but I don’t understand why we don’t instantly deport foreign criminals.

There are two schemes and we have started to. There was no will until very recently to use the facility within the home office
There is now