Current Championship xG table (21 Viewers)

[Jamesimus]

We are 4th, (5th in the xGd table).

Some over achievers in there (Sunderland, West Brom, Millwall, Blackburn) and under achievers (Luton, Middlesbrough, Hull, Cardiff).

This is why whoever comes in, I expect us and some of those underachieving teams with decent forwards to start climbing the table. If Robins had stayed, I imagine we’d have seen the same.

 

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[Evo1883]

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We are 4th, (5th in the xGd table).

Some over achievers in there (Sunderland, West Brom, Millwall, Blackburn) and under achievers (Luton, Middlesbrough, Hull, Cardiff).

This is why whoever comes in, I expect us and some of those underachieving teams with decent forwards to start climbing the table. If Robins had stayed, I imagine we’d have seen the same.

No point telling half on here is there , they are oblivious to many stats and their meaning

 

[Jamesimus]

No point telling half on here is there , they think tables like this mean nothing long term and that teams that consistently create

I’d encourage them to look at how many teams get promoted that aren’t near the top of the xG table.

Obviously it’s not the be all and end all, but it paints a picture. We’re creating decent quality chances and I think our forward line is capable of taking most decent chances.

Defensively the jury is still out for me, but we conceded two fantastic goals yesterday against a team that looked extremely average to me, having seen a fair few Championship teams now this season. I expect them to drop off at least slightly.

 

[Seymour_East]

No point telling half on here is there , they are oblivious to many stats and their meaning

Is that exactly 50%? I like to get my stats right

 

[PVA]

An indication that we aren't as bad as people make out and that Robins would probably have turned it round.

 

[Perryccfc]

Our actual goals compared to our XG isn’t really the issue. Our problem is our XGA and GA tab. Thats a key indicator to what we all know, we’re way to leaky in defence. If our actual GA was in line with our XGA we would be sitting pretty.

 

[CovInEssex]

An indication that we aren't as bad as people make out and that Robins would probably have turned it round.

It's an indication that we aren't putting our chances away

 

[Jamesimus]

It's an indication that we aren't putting our chances away

Not massively actually. Our xG is 1.44 and Goals for is 1.33 - not a massive difference.

It’s more what @Perryccfc said. xGA 1.17 but we’re conceding 1.40.

It is obviously a combination of both but the difference in the xGA and and actual goals conceded is larger.

 

[tisza]

Apart from a few outliers promotion teams for this division tend to defend well ( goals conceded). Our goal tally is actually decent compared to the rest of the division. it's goals conceded that have been sinking this team. Only 2 clean sheets, 21 conceded ( too many from individual errors as well).

 

[Skyblueweeman]

No point telling half on here is there , they are oblivious to many stats and their meaning

I mean to be fair, the only stat that counts is the league table. It does matter what we 'should' be achieving, it matters what we are achieving.

And FWIW, I didn't want Robins gone, thought he'd turn it round and haven't been shitting the bed about relegation.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

I mean to be fair, the only stat that counts is the league table. It does matter what we 'should' be achieving, it matters what we are achieving.

And FWIW, I didn't want Robins gone, thought he'd turn it round and haven't been shitting the bed about relegation.

The point is that the xg table is a very good predictor of the league table when the dust has settled & all teams have has their ups & downs.

For all the obsession with iPads, King clearly doesn’t know his way around one.

 

[Jamesimus]

I mean to be fair, the only stat that counts is the league table. It does matter what we 'should' be achieving, it matters what we are achieving.

And FWIW, I didn't want Robins gone, thought he'd turn it round and haven't been shitting the bed about relegation.

Why would anyone argue that is the only one that counts?

It absolutely does matter because it can give you an indication of where our issues are and whether we have been slightly unlucky so far and whether people are in a false league position - Preston after 10 games last season for example.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

Apart from a few outliers promotion teams for this division tend to defend well ( goals conceded). Our goal tally is actually decent compared to the rest of the division. it's goals conceded that have been sinking this team. Only 2 clean sheets, 21 conceded ( too many from individual errors as well).

Not trying to dig you out, but isn't your first sentence a pretty obvious statement and something we'd expect?

I'm pretty 'meh' with all this xG stuff to be honest.

And before I get responses saying I'm thick or don't understand, I'm well into Strokes Gained in the world of golf. Those are around actuals though - how a golfer compares to the rest, measured on a number of aspects of the game.

As far as I can see, xG is all about what 'should've happen.

Happy for anyone to convince me otherwise....but none of that chess nonsense Philosoraptor.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

The point is that the xg table is a very good predictor of the league table when the dust has settled & all teams have has their ups & downs.

For all the obsession with iPads, King clearly doesn’t know his way around one.

But why do you need a predictor of the league table when you can just look at the league table.

Whats the accuracy of the above table....if we finish 19th, does that mean its bollocks?

 

[Evo1883]

I mean to be fair, the only stat that counts is the league table. It does matter what we 'should' be achieving, it matters what we are achieving.

And FWIW, I didn't want Robins gone, thought he'd turn it round and haven't been shitting the bed about relegation.

A team can play poorly and win 1 nil a few games in a row by creating 1 chance a game ... ultimately it's unsustainable.

These tables over a long period are generally good at proving that

 

[Jamesimus]

Not trying to dig you out, but isn't your first sentence a pretty obvious statement and something we'd expect?

I'm pretty 'meh' with all this xG stuff to be honest.

And before I get responses saying I'm thick or don't understand, I'm well into Strokes Gained in the world of golf. Those are around actuals though - how a golfer compares to the rest, measured on a number of aspects of the game.

As far as I can see, xG is all about what 'should've happen.

Happy for anyone to convince me otherwise....but none of that chess nonsense Philosoraptor.

It might convince you to see how often teams manage to massively outperform their xG for the duration of a season and how often teams get promoted doing so.

Obviously there are outliers, there always are, the point being the outliers are rare.

 

[Jamesimus]

But why do you need a predictor of the league table when you can just look at the league table.

Whats the accuracy of the above table....if we finish 19th, does that mean its bollocks?

Based on the current data, it would be extremely unlikely if we were to continue on our current trend for us to finish 19th.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

But why do you need a predictor of the league table when you can just look at the league table.

Whats the accuracy of the above table....if we finish 19th, does that mean it’s bollocks?

I can’t be bothered to go digging through stats, but it’s a reliable indicator of how a team does. Appreciate that some people just don’t really get this stuff, but it’s factual.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

Why would anyone argue that is the only one that counts?

It absolutely does matter because it can give you an indication of where our issues are and whether we have been slightly unlucky so far and whether people are in a false league position - Preston after 10 games last season for example.

Fair enough.

I guess I'm just of the school of thought that if you look at goals for and goals against and one's much higher than the other, its pretty obvious what the issue is. That coupled with actual visual evidence of watching games.

And I'm not sure I subscribe to 'false league positions'. Teams are where they are in the league because that's where they deserve to be based on results.

We always say it's a results based business, right?

 

[covcity4life]

I'm surprised by that. Feel like I've watched too many games this season where we have not really laid a glove on the opposition

Does it say if we make lots of chances per game or wether it's the few chances we do make are likely to lead to goals?

Agree it's encouraging stat though regardless

 

[Jamesimus]

But why do you need a predictor of the league table when you can just look at the league table.

Whats the accuracy of the above table....if we finish 19th, does that mean its bollocks?

A predictor of the league table is there to “predict” how sustainable the current league table is likely to be.

Like how likely it is for Sunderland to stay top (unlikely unless they improve a fair amount in the next run of games).

Time will tell, but you have to understand, time has already ‘telled’ and that’s how these tables come about. Years and years of loadsa maths. Obviously it’s not perfect but it’s an indicator.

In golfing terms, I could be shit and one day hit a hole in one and get extremely lucky against you. But the xG table would have me down as massively outperforming my expected golfs on that day! (Know nothing about golf)

 

[stupot07]

Its quantity Vs quality isn't it. Yesterday's goals were a bit of anomaly, teams haven't been scoring worldies past us every week. We may be creating more xG and conceding xGA but if those smaller number of xGA are of higher quality, they are more likely to score. Think Rudoni's backpass Vs the one against Middlesbrough where BTA could only get a toe on it.

 

[Evo1883]

I'm surprised by that. Feel like I've watched too many games this season where we have not really laid a glove on the opposition

Does it say if we make lots of chances per game or wether it's the few chances we do make are likely to lead to goals?

Agree it's encouraging stat though regardless

It says that per 90 we create the 4th highest quality chances in the league

We also have the highest home xg per 90 in the league

 

[Jamesimus]

And I'm not sure I subscribe to 'false league positions'. Teams are where they are in the league because that's where they deserve to be based on results.

Well that’s the opposite of what I think!

Preston did not deserve to be as high as they were at the start of last season and the xG table showed that. They had a run of luck!

 

[Fergusons_Beard]

Been very unlucky.

We’re not taking our chances (although creating them) and opposition teams are finishing theirs albeit with highly lucky shots.

Only have to look at last two games to see that-a deflected crosss, a dodgy back pass, a flukey volley times out of ten that volley doesn’t nessle brilliantly into the top corner) and a thunderblaster from twenty five yards (that really Collins should’ve saved have got a hand to).


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[Evo1883]

Its quantity Vs quality isn't it. Yesterday's goals were a bit of anomaly, teams haven't been scoring worldies past us every week. We may be creating more xG and conceding xGA but if those smaller number of xGA are of higher quality, they are more likely to score. Think Rudoni's backpass Vs the one against Middlesbrough where BTA could only get a toe on it.

We are top 8 for total XG aswell

 

[Skyblueweeman]

Well I think that's me told on xG. I'll look into it a bit more.

But probably still think it's bollocks next time it comes up in conversation

 

[PVA]

Not trying to dig you out, but isn't your first sentence a pretty obvious statement and something we'd expect?

I'm pretty 'meh' with all this xG stuff to be honest.

And before I get responses saying I'm thick or don't understand, I'm well into Strokes Gained in the world of golf. Those are around actuals though - how a golfer compares to the rest, measured on a number of aspects of the game.

As far as I can see, xG is all about what 'should've happen.

Happy for anyone to convince me otherwise....but none of that chess nonsense Philosoraptor.

If you're interested in learning more I would recommend this book. It's incredible how much detail the top sides go into statistically with xG and beyond

https://amzn.eu/d/g9WUNJS

How to Win the Premier League: The Sunday Times Bestselling Inside Story of Football's Data Revolution​

 

[stupot07]

Weren't we lucky yesterday that the tackle rebounded off Brown straight into Wrights path for the first?

 

[Jamesimus]

Well I think that's me told on xG. I'll look into it a bit more.

But probably still think it's bollocks next time it comes up in conversation

It’s quite interesting. If you have a Thierry Henry up front for you, you’re potentially going to be able to outperform your xG for a duration of time long enough to see success.

 

[Evo1883]

Weren't we lucky yesterday that the tackle rebounded off Brown straight into Wrights path for the first?

You could say the same about 7 or 8 of the goals we've conceded this season though

Deflections , mistakes etc

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Weren't we lucky yesterday that the tackle rebounded off Brown straight into Wrights path for the first?

I don’t see what that has to do with it, over a season this will happen to all clubs, for them and against them.

 

[stupot07]

I don’t see what that has to do with it, over a season this will happen to all clubs, for them and against them.

100% but people keep saying that teams have been lucky like we have been hard done too. I'm just pointing out we have had our own fair share of luck.

I don't see Derby being lucky with the Rudoni back pass. Rudoni didn't even look, the striker anticipated it, it was poor play by Rudoni not poor luck.

 

[Flying Fokker]

No point telling half on here is there , they are oblivious to many stats and their meaning

Yep, it’s a bit like expected wins every time I go to a game.

 

[stupot07]

You could say the same about 7 or 8 of the goals we've conceded this season though

Deflections , mistakes etc

Exactly, and the same about 7 or 8 we've scored. We haven't been unlucky, that's just football.