Current Championship xG table (7 Viewers)

[Ring Of Steel]

100% but people keep saying that teams have been lucky like we have been hard done too. I'm just pointing out we have had our own fair share of luck.

I don't see Derby being lucky with the Rudoni back pass. Rudoni didn't even look, the striker anticipated it, it was poor play by Rudoni not poor luck.

I take your point- I don’t think we’re unlucky. I think our strikers are badly underperforming, meaning we’re failing to convert, and.. now we are where we are.

 

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[Ricketts]

I don’t know why we bother go to matches or playing football.
We should just leave it to the ipad wankers to tell us where our team has finished.

 

[Jamesimus]

I take your point- I don’t think we’re unlucky. I think our strikers are badly underperforming, meaning we’re failing to convert, and.. now we are where we are.

Well according to the xG table the strikers are actually not doing too badly, slightly underperforming. I guess really really good strikers would outperform the xG though…

However, the xGA and the GA are the biggest difference (no shit, we’re conceding silly goals from positions where the attacking player doesn’t actually have a great chance).

 

[Jamesimus]

I don’t know why we bother go to matches or playing football.
We should just leave it to the ipad wankers to tell us where our team has finished.

I guess because there’s some stats with some meaning behind them (that has been proven), we should just simulate the whole season - that would be way more enjoyable!

 

[Evo1883]

Exactly, and the same about 7 or 8 we've scored. We haven't been unlucky, that's just football.

The xg tables don't talk about luck though , it shows that we create high quality chances and quite a lot of them

 

[stupot07]

Well according to the xG table the strikers are actually not doing too badly, slightly underperforming. I guess really really good strikers would outperform the xG though…

However, the xGA and the GA are the biggest difference (no shit, we’re conceding silly goals from positions where the attacking player doesn’t actually have a great chance).

That's true yesterday but isn't always true, a team may have a low xGA but they have had 1-2 high quality chances but the rest of their shots are from 25 yards, whist we have had a lot of long rangers or low quality shots but the cumulation is a higher xG.

 

[stupot07]

Yesterday both teams had an xG of 0.66 so both teams over performed significantly.

Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24

 

[Jamesimus]

That's true yesterday but isn't always true, a team may have a low xGA but they have had 1-2 high quality chances but the rest of their shots are from 25 yards, whist we have had a lot of long rangers or low quality shots but the cumulation is a higher xG.

I’m not sure of the cumulative outcome of it, it may adjust for this? But I hear what you’re saying. Yesterday though Sunderland had two far better chances to score than the ones they did, meaning it obviously isn’t an exact science. So yes it was true yesterday, but also true for Derbys second goal the other day imo. Shit happens!



I’d also point out we don’t seem to take that many shots from range.

 

[Jamesimus]

Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24

This does not surprise me. He’d not long come on as well.

 

[Jamesimus]

Yesterday both teams had an xG of 0.66 so both teams over performed significantly.

Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24

What’s also interesting there is that both teams had the same xG and both teams drew. Almost as if there is a direct correlation between xG and how teams perform

 

[Evo1883]

Yesterday both teams had an xG of 0.66 so both teams over performed significantly.

Coincidentally the best chance of the game was Aaron Connolly's on the 81st minute 0.24

Well they will have low XG on their goals as they were both worldies

 

[Jamesimus]

Well they will have low XG on their goals as they were both worldies

Isodor scored a great goal the other week on the volley. It actually had a high xG (can’t remember what), but likely because it was a ball over the top of the defence and he had time to take a touch and finish. He chose to hit it first time. Surprised the goalkeeper no doubt and could be a striker that outperforms his xG this season?

 

[skybluecam]

xG +/- shouldn’t really be used in this way.

To do it properly you should use an xPts simulation.

 

[Jamesimus]

xG +/- shouldn’t really be used in this way.

To do it properly you should use an xPts simulation.

Go on then Cam, give it to us!

 

[skybluecam]

Go on then Cam, give it to us!

2024-2025 Championship League Table

The 2024-2025 Championship League Table showing the record of every team in the tournament throughout the season

thefishy.co.uk

This one has us 5/6th. Thought we might be lower tbf.

 

[Jamesimus]

2024-2025 Championship League Table

The 2024-2025 Championship League Table showing the record of every team in the tournament throughout the season

thefishy.co.uk

This one has us 5/6th. Thought we might be lower tbf.

Almost as if expected goals for and expected goals against is a good indicator to these things eh?

 

[False9]

View attachment 39371
We are 4th, (5th in the xGd table).

Some over achievers in there (Sunderland, West Brom, Millwall, Blackburn) and under achievers (Luton, Middlesbrough, Hull, Cardiff).

This is why whoever comes in, I expect us and some of those underachieving teams with decent forwards to start climbing the table. If Robins had stayed, I imagine we’d have seen the same.

Spot on and this is why I believed strongly that Robins was/would turn it around.

If you think back to the losses, we didn't concede many chances but they kept going in.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

2024-2025 Championship League Table

The 2024-2025 Championship League Table showing the record of every team in the tournament throughout the season

thefishy.co.uk

This one has us 5/6th. Thought we might be lower tbf.

so the xg has us fourth, predicted points has us 6th- but yet Robins had apparently lost it and had to go as we were spiralling towards relegation, as opposed to the players not finishing chances.

 

[Jamesimus]

so the xg has us fourth, predicted points has us 6th- but yet Robins had apparently lost it and had to go as we were spiralling towards relegation, as opposed to the players not finishing chances.

*As opposed to defending properly

But I hear ya. The Norwich first half and that Eccles chance against Watford I think back to as times where we should have picked up more points.

 

[Jamesimus]

Also, the Leeds game was poor but they look on another level so far this season and the stats back that up.

 

[skybluecam]

so the xg has us fourth, predicted points has us 6th- but yet Robins had apparently lost it and had to go as we were spiralling towards relegation, as opposed to the players not finishing chances.

We’ve scored 20 off 20.9 xg, our players are finishing chances.

We were never going to get relegated.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

We’ve scored 20 off 20.9 xg, our players are finishing chances.

We were never going to get relegated.

I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.

 

[skybluecam]

I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.

Well, as the last week has shown the forum seems to be full of people prone to hysteria.

We weren’t and aren’t getting relegated - yesterday was a perfect example of the individual quality we do have even when we’re not performing that well as a unit.

Obviously I called for Robins out and I stand by it, although I do think the Luton and Boro results should have bought him a bit more time.

 

[Jamesimus]

Well, as the last week has shown the forum seems to be full of people prone to hysteria.

We weren’t and aren’t getting relegated - yesterday was a perfect example of the individual quality we do have even when we’re not performing that well as a unit.

Obviously I called for Robins out and I stand by it, although I do think the Luton and Boro results should have bought him a bit more time.

That’s very honest. Time will tell if it is the right or wrong call. Heart says wrong and I was against it, but I’ll back any new manager (apart from Joey Barton or Troy Deeney).

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.

That’s not quite what the posts said is it, but crack on.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Well, as the last week has shown the forum seems to be full of people prone to hysteria.

We weren’t and aren’t getting relegated - yesterday was a perfect example of the individual quality we do have even when we’re not performing that well as a unit.

Obviously I called for Robins out and I stand by it, although I do think the Luton and Boro results should have bought him a bit more time.

I can respect that view 100%.

 

[tisza]

Not trying to dig you out, but isn't your first sentence a pretty obvious statement and something we'd expect?

I'm pretty 'meh' with all this xG stuff to be honest.

And before I get responses saying I'm thick or don't understand, I'm well into Strokes Gained in the world of golf. Those are around actuals though - how a golfer compares to the rest, measured on a number of aspects of the game.

As far as I can see, xG is all about what 'should've happen.

Happy for anyone to convince me otherwise....but none of that chess nonsense Philosoraptor.

More a comment that xG isn't the "be all and end all" of determining probability of success in the division. We've scored 20 goals (that's top 6ish in the division). It's goals conceded that are probably the bigger determining factor for where we are in the League and ultimately what cost MR his job.

 

[SBAndy]

Think if I started talking about the Standard Deviation of XG some people may spontaneously combust. Apart from Philosorapter.

 

[Grendel]

I agree- yet we had endless posts on here detailing how we had no chance of even getting to 50 points, how we were already in a relegation dogfight, and how Robins’ time was up as we were heading straight to League One.

Can you show any posts that say we wouldn’t get to 50 points?

 

[Evo1883]

Can you show any posts that say we wouldn’t get to 50 points?

A couple of People were talking about relegation or being in a relationship fight

 

[Grendel]

A couple of People were talking about relegation or being in a relationship fight

Which isn’t again what you have actually said.

 

[Evo1883]

Which isn’t again what you have actually said.

I never said anything

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Can you show any posts that say we wouldn’t get to 50 points?

I assume he is referring to a thread of mine where even there I don't say it's a certainty we won't get to 50

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Our actual goals compared to our XG isn’t really the issue. Our problem is our XGA and GA tab. Thats a key indicator to what we all know, we’re way to leaky in defence. If our actual GA was in line with our XGA we would be sitting pretty.

Most of our goals this season have been gifts. The two goals we conceded against Derby was just amateurish.

All the hallmarks of an inexperienced and naive team.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Think if I started talking about the Standard Deviation of XG some people may spontaneously combust. Apart from Philosorapter.

I think he might, but in a very different way.