fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Ours have got better since playing the top two:
"Underlying numbers" (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter fernandopartridge
- Start date
MusicDating
Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
The difference between our xGA 1.14 and Burnley's 0.97 is ridiculous considering we've conceded 23 they've let in 6!
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
We would have got it right I'm sure , the whole thing is just senseless . But can't keep dwelling on it
Marty
Well-Known Member
Am I understanding it correctly in that we should have scored more and conceded less?
Oggysstarjumps
Well-Known Member
You sum it up perfectly.
mmttww
Well-Known Member
I hear what you're saying. King's POV seems to me to be...
- players are playing well enough to be getting more points.
- this has been the story this season and last season esp. early on.
- MR wasn't 'coaching' so his role was the mental side of things.
- we're not being consistent across entire games.
- we're not being consistent across runs of games ('moments').
- he'd put everything in place to support MR with being consistent.
- he wasn't delivering what we needed to turn performance to points.
He wasn't convinced we'd keep getting it right and we'll never know.
Sunderland scored 2 worldies, and Sheffield United scored with the only 2 chances I remember them having. That luck just cannot continue, obviously we can be meaner at the back and maybe this 'bad luck' will prove to be an excellent learning curve for our defence if they're to get the amount clean sheets necessary to achieve anything. I'm pretty positive about things balancing themselves out and reckon we'll all feel a lot better about things by the end of Jan/Feb, 'the data' does suggest that and over time tends to be correct. We play some lovely stuff it's just that bit of quality with a final ball and maybe 1 or 2 positioning issues with the defenders at times
Crazy really, hopefully there's a bit of data correction tonight !
aloisijohnnyaloisi
Well-Known Member
I can't wait for it to regress to the mean
torchomatic
Well-Known Member
Yeah, my son was calling November "the month of doom". However, apart from Derby, we've beaten Boro and come from behind to draw with Sunderland and Sheff Urd.
Thinking the three hour trip up North will be worth it tonight.
Thinking the three hour trip up North will be worth it tonight.
Calista
Well-Known Member
We really haven't been anywhere near as poor as King (+ a small number of loud voices on here) seemed to believe.
It's complex elite sport. Sometimes a team can stutter a bit despite best efforts, lose a touch of confidence, not have the rub of the green. Sometimes a couple more little pieces (on or off field) are needed to complete the jigsaw. Surely we've all seen it many times before?
With this risky regime change, IMO the work needed to get us back on track has probably increased.
It's complex elite sport. Sometimes a team can stutter a bit despite best efforts, lose a touch of confidence, not have the rub of the green. Sometimes a couple more little pieces (on or off field) are needed to complete the jigsaw. Surely we've all seen it many times before?
With this risky regime change, IMO the work needed to get us back on track has probably increased.
The watchmaker
Well-Known Member
I always thought we would do well against those two. We don't mind an open game. Tonight worries me but if we can sneak a goal who knows.
SBAndy
Well-Known Member
I’ve often felt this but can’t find anything statistically that points to it. In fact, our non-penalty xG to shots ratio is 0.11, with the highest achievers in the league at 0.12 and the lowest at 0.07. Suggests there’s plenty worse than us.
Of maybe more relevance is we’ve had 40 ‘big chances’ (ranking 4th) and missed 30 of them (ranking 1st).
The watchmaker
Well-Known Member
People tend to focus on the defence being the issue and that is probably fair but we are 14th on goals conceded and 6th on xGA. The former is not great if you want to be right up there but still mid table and higher than our league position. If we had converted more of our chances we would still be in the mix. When people blame formations, positional play, coaching etc that does seem a little over simplistic as we are talking elite sport and fine margins. Ultimately you can blame anything on 'coaching' but our shape is generally okay, we generally have numbers back.
If you look at the goals v Sheffield, even for the second when the ball was turned over, the players were all in good positions and that is probably all you can do from the sidelines. Blame who you like on the field - lati lost his man/got beat for pace both times, MvE stood still/didn't cover, Dasilva should have been closer to his man for the first and cut out the cross but from a Sheffield U perspective they are two excellent balls from Hamer, good movement, good finishes.
If you look at the goals v Sheffield, even for the second when the ball was turned over, the players were all in good positions and that is probably all you can do from the sidelines. Blame who you like on the field - lati lost his man/got beat for pace both times, MvE stood still/didn't cover, Dasilva should have been closer to his man for the first and cut out the cross but from a Sheffield U perspective they are two excellent balls from Hamer, good movement, good finishes.
mmttww
Well-Known Member
I'm assuming ranking 1st here is not a good thing e.g. we've missed the most big chances of anyone!
The watchmaker
Well-Known Member
Yes, I was looking for that stat too as I was pretty sure I had heard that a week or so ago. We miss a lot of 'big chances'. But it is actually not as bad as you'd think as it is usually a sign of a good team that is creating lots of chances. 'Big chances missed' and 'goals scored' tend to have a strong correlation come the end of the season.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
That surprises me cos it doesn’t feel like we’ve missed loads of sitters this season.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
It’s a concern if we’re conceding a lot more goals than our xGA suggests because it almost confirms the eye test that we concede many soft goals. Which will be down to a combination of individual errors (Rudoni v Derby) or positional/tactical errors such as Sheff U’s 1st goal at the weekend.
These data metrics are a useful tool and why I believed MR could turn things around. However, it doesn’t tell the whole story.
What they don’t really consider is ‘game state’ and that’s a big flaw here. In most games, we’ve conceded the first goal so spend time trying to attack against teams defending a lead. Which means that we trying to create more chances against teams digging in to protect the lead which is almost definitely distorting the data here.
Sheffield United and Swansea at home are good examples of games where the ‘game state’ and underlying data don’t quite add up.
The watchmaker
Well-Known Member
The point about us going behind a lot is very valid and really hard to factor out of the available data.
Re: soft goals, yeah, I agree. The Rudoni error I'm actually fine with - mistakes happen - but I can't get my head round the number of times where we have players back, they are in position and yet still somehow leave a striker entirely unmarked under no pressure in our penalty area. How many times this season does it feel like most of the back line 'switched off?'
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Add tonight’s game to the list. Two avoidable goals and we’ve lost 2-0.
JoeCCFCPUSB
Well-Known Member
These stats mean nothing when your defence minus MVE is made up of Thomas, Kitching, Binks, Joel Lat, DaSilva and Bidwell.
These lot are shit players.
You then look at our midfield, Torp, Eccles and Rudoni are passengers. They have nothing about them.
Sheaf is the only talent in our squad in that position.
Our transfer window was awful.
We all knew we needed defenders and a midfielder yet we sign 10 forwards.
The watchmaker
Well-Known Member
So Burnley are a horrible team to play against(/watch) so tonight in isolation was no surprise to me but I will say what I said in the 'defence' thread. I'm just not convinced a back 6 of:
Collins
MvE - Lati - Thomas - Binks - Dasilva
is any good even on paper. I would try:
Dovin
MvE - Thomas - Kitching - Binks
and go all out attack. Whether that would be any better
and if we've decided Kitching is a bust then we need a top quality CB as a priority because I'm not at all convinced [Lampard/anyone] is going to be able to fix it. Just imagine that back 6 if MvE gets injured btw.
SeaSeeEffCee
Well-Known Member
I think our numbers are massively influenced by how much time we’ve spent behind this season tbh. No chance have we been anywhere near as good as these numbers would suggest.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
100% - we’ve conceded the first goal in 11 of our 17 games this season.
Given the generic statistic of the first scoring team is most likely to win, it’s no surprise we are where we are in the league.
To compound everything, in 9 games this season we’ve conceded 2 or more goals. It’s embarrassing.
COVKIDSNEVERQUIT
Well-Known Member
Queens Park Rangers, Sheffield United and last night at Burnley, come to mind.
Just not learning from their mistakes.