Discussions - just an opinion (1 Viewer)

[oldskyblue58]

Nothing more than my own guess but I really do not think that the discussions at the end of last week will achieve a break through or bring our team back to the Ricoh.

The feel i get from the reports & "leaks" is that the focus from the SISU point of view is on driving through the CVA acceptance and coming back is down the list. Yes you can look at the release of info about the"new" ground, the season tickets, match tickets, reports about how the team building is hampered etc as putting pressure on ACL. But what if it wasnt just that

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the "discussions" are pretty much a tick box exercise so that SISU can say to FL and fans alike "we tried but ACL wouldn't do a deal we could take"

As soon as talks are put together there is a flood of information coming out Club sources much of it if true would render talks about rent at the Ricoh on a permanent basis pointless. But is it true, well certainly some of it is - we have a contract at Sixfields for 3 years to play approved by FL for instance. Are the property details/rumours true, would hope not but they could be. But on the other side of that is the poor customer relations going on from the club, either the do not give a damn about the fans or they expect to be back at Ricoh (sadly i think it is the former). It doesnt point to listening to the fans or doing a deal to return in my opinion

I read that SISU are going to force a deal on the Ricoh, that they will get ownership of the freehold or of ACL, that the charity is so desperate to sell they would sell to SISU, that all this will happen in days. Really ? After all that has gone on they give up and give in gift or sell at a knock down price ? I just do not see it i dont even think it is being put on the table by ACL or its stakeholders

ACl have they moved their position. Well we just do not know because they are not making any statements, neither are the club/sisu specifically on the discussions but they are releasing a lot on issues closely linked. Classic not breaking the agreement but bending everything as far as can be done. ACL have said nothing in the last week. I would guess that ACL would have to offer something equivalent to the NTFC agreement to make it tempting (but with one major difference a longer term). But the focus of the leaked discussions would seem to be on the CVA - no CVA approved then no talks on coming back is the message that comes out. But is there an intention to come back this coming season or even at all, I am not sure there is.

The CVA is key to SISU . Clearly it starts the process of coming out of embargo etc but I feel it is more important for them to bury what has gone on. just to be clear I am not making any allegations about what has gone on...... from the outside though burying the adminstration appears a priority. I would guess that unless these talks are seen as constructive then ACL will reject the CVA next Tuesday or 7 days later. But ACL will be out of pocket you say ....... yes but how much? ..... would resolution allow them to get on with their business? ...... will Ricoh Arena fail or be viable without the football club?- the truth is no one here knows for certain, my own view is that they will be viable, but just an opinion

CCFC. Am seriously worried if they go to Sixfields. The process of distressing the club started many months ago goes on but to what purpose? There is no great groundswell of supporters buying tickets. Yes some will go and whilst I disagree with them that is their choice to which they are entitled. But I have thought over and over again as to what makes this scheme viable for the club short medium and long term and I just do not see it. Not all the debts are "paper" and the scheme short to mid term at least appears to add to that. Incomes are slashed, budgets slashed, fan base slashed, potential market slashed, on and on it goes. What happens if our thin squad of youngsters do not get off to a good start, get bullied by bigger stronger more experienced sides - one thing would be even less people at sixfields surely and the slashing of more income and costs?

so I think..........
No deal will be done
SISU will certainly not own part of or all of ACL or the Freehold
the CVA will be rejected
the club will get 15 point deduction
FL will hand the share to Otium - the club will continue in their ownership for now
CCFC Ltd will be liquidated after a thorough investigation - what that results in who knows
There will be increased pressure on FL and FA to get their house in order and to get some teeth!

Will CCFC ever come back - your guess is as good as mine. I am not sure they will but if they do I am not sure I will see it as my club any more.

There is very little in all this CCFC saga that makes much sense

 

---

[Deleted member 5849]

But I have thought over and over again as to what makes this scheme viable for the club short medium and long term and I just do not see it.

The short answer is it doesn't.

In a club/business that isn't viable it's an effort to produce a viable result out of an unviable action however.

Putting yourself in their shoes (and not as a city fan) if you're lumbered with something that isn't viable, it doesn't hurt you to try radical measures particularly.

 

[Otis]

Nothing more than my own guess but I really do not think that the discussions at the end of last week will achieve a break through or bring our team back to the Ricoh.

The feel i get from the reports & "leaks" is that the focus from the SISU point of view is on driving through the CVA acceptance and coming back is down the list. Yes you can look at the release of info about the"new" ground, the season tickets, match tickets, reports about how the team building is hampered etc as putting pressure on ACL. But what if it wasnt just that

I am increasingly coming to the conclusion that the "discussions" are pretty much a tick box exercise so that SISU can say to FL and fans alike "we tried but ACL wouldn't do a deal we could take"

As soon as talks are put together there is a flood of information coming out Club sources much of it if true would render talks about rent at the Ricoh on a permanent basis pointless. But is it true, well certainly some of it is - we have a contract at Sixfields for 3 years to play approved by FL for instance. Are the property details/rumours true, would hope not but they could be. But on the other side of that is the poor customer relations going on from the club, either the do not give a damn about the fans or they expect to be back at Ricoh (sadly i think it is the former). It doesnt point to listening to the fans or doing a deal to return in my opinion

I read that SISU are going to force a deal on the Ricoh, that they will get ownership of the freehold or of ACL, that the charity is so desperate to sell they would sell to SISU, that all this will happen in days. Really ? After all that has gone on they give up and give in gift or sell at a knock down price ? I just do not see it i dont even think it is being put on the table by ACL or its stakeholders

ACl have they moved their position. Well we just do not know because they are not making any statements, neither are the club/sisu specifically on the discussions but they are releasing a lot on issues closely linked. Classic not breaking the agreement but bending everything as far as can be done. ACL have said nothing in the last week. I would guess that ACL would have to offer something equivalent to the NTFC agreement to make it tempting (but with one major difference a longer term). But the focus of the leaked discussions would seem to be on the CVA - no CVA approved then no talks on coming back is the message that comes out. But is there an intention to come back this coming season or even at all, I am not sure there is.

The CVA is key to SISU . Clearly it starts the process of coming out of embargo etc but I feel it is more important for them to bury what has gone on. just to be clear I am not making any allegations about what has gone on...... from the outside though burying the adminstration appears a priority. I would guess that unless these talks are seen as constructive then ACL will reject the CVA next Tuesday or 7 days later. But ACL will be out of pocket you say ....... yes but how much? ..... would resolution allow them to get on with their business? ...... will Ricoh Arena fail or be viable without the football club?- the truth is no one here knows for certain, my own view is that they will be viable, but just an opinion

CCFC. Am seriously worried if they go to Sixfields. The process of distressing the club started many months ago goes on but to what purpose? There is no great groundswell of supporters buying tickets. Yes some will go and whilst I disagree with them that is their choice to which they are entitled. But I have thought over and over again as to what makes this scheme viable for the club short medium and long term and I just do not see it. Not all the debts are "paper" and the scheme short to mid term at least appears to add to that. Incomes are slashed, budgets slashed, fan base slashed, potential market slashed, on and on it goes. What happens if our thin squad of youngsters do not get off to a good start, get bullied by bigger stronger more experienced sides - one thing would be even less people at sixfields surely and the slashing of more income and costs?

so I think..........
No deal will be done
SISU will certainly not own part of or all of ACL or the Freehold
the CVA will be rejected
the club will get 15 point deduction
FL will hand the share to Otium - the club will continue in their ownership for now
CCFC Ltd will be liquidated after a thorough investigation - what that results in who knows
There will be increased pressure on FL and FA to get their house in order and to get some teeth!

Will CCFC ever come back - your guess is as good as mine. I am not sure they will but if they do I am not sure I will see it as my club any more.

There is very little in all this CCFC saga that makes much sense

Great post. Thank you OSB. :thumbup:

Sent from my KIS using Tapatalk 2

 

[Spionkop]

Thanks OSB. Always well worth a read and thoughtful.
Can somebody not shut Norman Wisdom up. I'm all for debate but he's bonkers.

 

[oldskyblue58]

The short answer is it doesn't.

In a club/business that isn't viable it's an effort to produce a viable result out of an unviable action however.

Putting yourself in their shoes (and not as a city fan) if you're lumbered with something that isn't viable, it doesn't hurt you to try radical measures particularly.

If I were in their shoes NW taking a business decision I would have cut my losses and gone a long time ago...... certainly wouldnt be pouring more money in to the pit. That would have been the business decision. Even now that would be a sensible business decision. They have no real affinity to the club or its fans. So why are they still here ......... to let Sepalla have a CCFC legacy ? ...... some how I doubt it

 

[jesus-wept]

Think you are correct in the sisu desperate to get this CVA signed, why else was the mysterious Seppalla at the Thursday meeting. I still think we will be at the Ricoh for the Bristol game. If the CVA isn't signed then it will be Appleton who decides what happens next and I don't rule out the FL looking at this issue again and if as I have been told there could be a fan taking the FL to court to get an injunction against moving that would be interesting. Still a long way to go yet.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

If I were in their shoes NW taking a business decision I would have cut my losses and gone a long time ago...... certainly wouldnt be pouring more money in to the pit. That would have been the business decision. Even now that would be a sensible business decision.

Not from the POV of how such funds operate it wouldn't.

What they're doing is not unusual in the wider context of their essence. From their POV the decisions they're taking *are* the rational ones. It manifests itself in 'interesting' ways, but the basic premise of their actions is not particularly strange or unusual.

 

[oldskyblue58]

Hedge funds being in control for 5 years and planning 10 to 15 years ahead is not normal hedge fund operation.

The strategy is not unusual but being so far in a hole before doing it is

Yes they make money from debt and by clever accounting whereby those losses are used more than once. But say that in 10 years they have their ground, unless they have spectacular success on the pitch, then will the club recover its losses? or reduced its debt. Thats the important thing here to the fans not the SISU position on investment.

 

[RogerH]

Excellent post, OSB.

An organisation such as SISU by nature and instinct conduct their business with secrecy. One of the major areas that they failed in is PR. It goes against the grain for them to be open and transparent to fans about their plans for the club. Even if they employed a PR person who knew how to talk to fans they would carry more people with them. The likes of Dulieu and Fisher have been PR disasters. It surprises me that a sharp cookie like Seppala hasn't addressed that problem.

Many people feel that SISU's end game is to acquire control of the Ricoh. They have had chances to pursue that aim and have not taken them. After all that has happened in the last 12 months or so, too many bridges have been burned, too many attitudes hardened for that to ever happen IMO. The threat of the Judicial Review just makes things worse.

I wonder what supporters attitudes will be, even those who are going to Northampton, if come the end of October, say, the team is struggling in the bottom 6 and set for a relegation battle, and there is no concrete news of a planning application for a new stadium. Will fans remain loyal and hope ? Will there be a groundswell of opinion in favour of setting up a replacement club at the Ricoh ?

There is so much we don't know, I'm afraid I think this saga has a fair way to run yet, many twists and turns, and I am sure, a few surprises.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Hedge funds being in control for 5 years and planning 10 to 15 years ahead is not normal hedge fund operation.

It isn't.

But aren't we going in the circles there? Are we having to convince anybody of this particular bit? Are we believing a random 'exclusive' in a local paper not confirmed by the club?

That doesn't stop their current approach being rational from their POV however, does it?

 

[Sky Blue Kid]

OSB58....I think you and a lot of others are of the same opinion as me. SISU don't want the Ricoh, but want the Football Club to do whatever it is they are doing ATM. Speculation is rife as to what that is, and it doesn't take a "Rocket Scientist" to make a guess....Allegedly!

 

[italiahorse]

Not from the POV of how such funds operate it wouldn't.

What they're doing is not unusual in the wider context of their essence. From their POV the decisions they're taking *are* the rational ones. It manifests itself in 'interesting' ways, but the basic premise of their actions is not particularly strange or unusual.

What bullshit.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

What bullshit.

It really isn't.

 

[ccfcway]

The CVA is key to SISU . Clearly it starts the process of coming out of embargo

Is this the embargo we are in because SISU didnt file the accounts AGAIN !!

They are not bothered about the embargo, just as they werent lat year !

 

[KG7]

Taking out the Northampton thing for a moment...

Is it reasonable to suggest that the lower down the leagues we are, the more unsustainable the Ricoh will be for ACL and the cheaper it will ultimately become for SISU to gain a stake in / purchase?

Looking back to our Championship relegation season, there was no apparent reason why we allowed pretty much our entire first team squad to leave on a free and only replace them with Cody McDonald and a couple of goalkeepers...but as soon as we got relegated SISU chirped up with 'this rent is extortionate for a league one club'.

I would speculate that their plan is to take us down to league two to reduce the value of the stadium even further. This also reduces the value of the club making them even less likely a target for a takeover bid - who would pay £20m for a League 2 club without a stadium? Ultimately, the less successful we are, the less attractive we are, and the stronger SISUs position to buy the Arena. Following this theory, administration and the fifteen point penalty for the rejection of the CVA played right into SISUs hands. So does NOPM.

Whilst the Northampton move may or may not be posturing - it is obviously designed to weaken ACLs resolve / bargaining power. Although I do think we will be back at the RICOH on reduced terms, my prediction for the season is we will sign no decent players, receive a 15 point penalty, lose our manager, and go down, which would further reduce the value of the club and the Ricoh, and put SISU in a stronger position to purchase the arena.

I think it is only then (whenever that may be) that we'll see an upturn in the clubs fortune's where it will be in their interest to have a successful club to maximise the profits of the stadium and get us back to the premier league and access to that fortune.

 

[aloisiwouldhavescored]

Totally agree OSB. We had our own business until we retired recently and of course the sensible business decision would have been to cut their losses and get out, that's what we would have done in the same circumstances. But of course this is SISU we are talking about, so sensible and business don't go together do they.

.

If I were in their shoes NW taking a business decision I would have cut my losses and gone a long time ago...... certainly wouldnt be pouring more money in to the pit. That would have been the business decision. Even now that would be a sensible business decision. They have no real affinity to the club or its fans. So why are they still here ......... to let Sepalla have a CCFC legacy ? ...... some how I doubt it

 

[dongonzalos]

SISU are desperate to see ACL run the Ricoh without the club there.

They are only having the discussions due to the CVA.

I hope the FL are mediating the discussions. So they get to genuinely see if SISU have no option but to move.

 

[blueflint]

It isn't.

But aren't we going in the circles there? Are we having to convince anybody of this particular bit? Are we believing a random 'exclusive' in a local paper not confirmed by the club?

That doesn't stop their current approach being rational from their POV however, does it?

what crap are you expounding now NW cant believe that you even believe it

 

[dongonzalos]

Excellent post, OSB.

An organisation such as SISU by nature and instinct conduct their business with secrecy. One of the major areas that they failed in is PR. It goes against the grain for them to be open and transparent to fans about their plans for the club. Even if they employed a PR person who knew how to talk to fans they would carry more people with them. The likes of Dulieu and Fisher have been PR disasters. It surprises me that a sharp cookie like Seppala hasn't addressed that problem.

Many people feel that SISU's end game is to acquire control of the Ricoh. They have had chances to pursue that aim and have not taken them. After all that has happened in the last 12 months or so, too many bridges have been burned, too many attitudes hardened for that to ever happen IMO. The threat of the Judicial Review just makes things worse.

I wonder what supporters attitudes will be, even those who are going to Northampton, if come the end of October, say, the team is struggling in the bottom 6 and set for a relegation battle, and there is no concrete news of a planning application for a new stadium. Will fans remain loyal and hope ? Will there be a groundswell of opinion in favour of setting up a replacement club at the Ricoh ?

There is so much we don't know, I'm afraid I think this saga has a fair way to run yet, many twists and turns, and I am sure, a few surprises.

What makes you think Joy is a sharp cookie?

 

[Jack Griffin]

@KG7 - I've been saying for weeks that this season is probably a planned relegation.

Why, because a lower league club is cheaper to run & that will suit SISU, they can reduce the anticipated losses of going to Northampton.

Timmy said he had no alternative, suddenly you find one, to run at a greater loss.

Debt to equity means someone has to put money in & effectively write it off as the equity is worthless. ointlaugh:

It is more likely next season is a planned relegation.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

what crap are you expounding now NW cant believe that you even believe it

Empathy is a wonderful way to begin to counter the opposition.

Or we can just dismiss it as crap.

 

[KG7]

@Jack Griffin Yes I agree, but what I think is equally as important is, it makes the club less attractive to prospective buyers and will ultimately leave them as the last group standing with an interest in the football club and the stadium. Who would pay £70m to pay off SISUs debts and buy the club when we're in League 2 (or lower) and then pay whatever ACL want for the stadium?

However, it makes SISUs bargaining stance stronger (this is now a League 2 club etc).

Whilst I don't like the way SISU are going about things, I do think there is possibility for success whilst they're in charge, if we ever get to a position where what's good for SISU MATCHES with what's good for the club.

Again, I'm speculating - but...
Currently:
What's good for the club: Success on the pitch
What's Good For SISU: Failure on the pitch (for the reasons highlighted above and in my previous post)

If we were ever in a position where SISU owned The Ricoh Arena, I think this would then see a marriage in the objectives of the club and SISU - ie.
What's good for the club: Success on the pitch
What's Good For SISU: Success on the pitch

This success would increase the value of the stadium and the revenue created by the club rising through the leagues with the ultimate goal being the premier league.

 

[RogerH]

What makes you think Joy is a sharp cookie?

Business wise SISU are sharp, and you tangle with them at your peril. Other aspects like PR they have been poor though.

 

[SkyBlueM]

If we stay in Northampton for several years it will be quite an achievement to stay out of the conference let alone L2, with the reduced income and FFP we will be struggling to put any sort of competitive team on the pitch (well if we ever get round to submitting any accounts). The move makes absolutely no sense whatsoever as i cannot see how further reducing the clubs position in the league helps SISU or the Club.

 

[dongonzalos]

Business wise SISU are sharp, and you tangle with them at your peril. Other aspects like PR they have been poor though.

From looking through their recent history they seem to be anything but sharp

 

[italiahorse]

Business wise SISU are sharp, and you tangle with them at your peril. Other aspects like PR they have been poor though.

But nobody knows that. It is guess work.

 

[KG7]

@ SkyBlueM

My argument is that this suits SISU. As Jack Griffin pointed out, it decreases their outgoings, and as I've also suggested I think it increases the likelihood of them getting a cheaper deal on the stadium, AND wipes out potential buyers for the club / stadium package.

SISU do not think about the club as we do, and are currently more concerned with getting hold of the arena than having a successful football club. This is difficult to get your head round as a fan as it seems so absurd. BUT, if what I'm saying is true, and as I've said in previous two posts - I'm only speculating - then there is absolute sense (for SISU) taking the club lower and lower through the leagues - if for nothing else it justifies their decision to move to Northampton and build their own stadium:

For example,
'400k a year for a League 2 / Conference Club is unsustainable etc'

No-one could argue against the logic of this statement.

And lets look at it the other way...

If we were to get promoted, the rent of the stadium doesn't look so bad for a Championship Club and with the extra revenue from higher attendances/TV money their stance on the whole thing would be significantly weakened.

It's just a theory and I can't prove it, however I have yet to see anything that convinces me that this ISN'T their current plan.

 

[martcov]

Business wise SISU are sharp, and you tangle with them at your peril. Other aspects like PR they have been poor though.

They are not very good at running a football club though and in 2011 their hedge fund posted a loss of 272000,00 pounds. So, although I agree that Joy ( thus SISU ) is sharp in some fields, I think that she bit off more than she can chew with CCFC. Some of her CCFC board appointments were also not good. I hope that, either she comes up with the goods soon, or she goes ( or both, in that she forces ACL, CCC etc. to give her the Ricoh at some price, makes the club then into a viable company and sells it to someone who has an interest in and has experience in sport club management ).

 

[Moscowskyblue]

Old Sky Blue

Will CCFC ever come back - your guess is as good as mine. I am not sure they will but if they do I am not sure I will see it as my club any more.

There is very little in all this CCFC saga that makes much sense

As always OSB very interesting reading and the only question I raise is will many actually care what becomes of CCFC as this farce continues?
I only speak for myself and I wish this whole situation hadn't happened and that Coventry City Football Club represented my home city within its own borders and win, lose or draw I could derive some pleasure from competing against other clubs and discuss the successes and failures, the joy and often pain that comes with supporting your team.
Sadly that is no longer the case and as much as I want to find positives and believe we will find a way to get through this period and my club will appear again, I actually don't care and I am now looking at an alternative.
Today i went to see Lokomotive v CSKA, saw a cracking Moscow derby and a great atmosphere, no allegiance to either side, no interest in the result and it showed clearly what I am going to miss, a partisan encounter with the result hurting me if it goes against or the joy and elation that comes from victory.
I will be back in the UK and normally wouldn't miss the Bristol City game and although I will look at the result and especially the gate with some interest it wont affect my day or week anymore and that distresses me.

 

[oldskyblue58]

Whilst in my opinion SISU have tried to distress ACL to get it on the cheap I am not sure how distressing CCFC further to do it actually changes the value much. If you accept the notion that the whole complex is nothing without the football team then yes perhaps it fits the theory but thats an opinion not a fact.

Right now CCFC has no worth. It has no secure long term tenure, it has the likelihood of a massive drop in average crowds to levels not seen in many decades, it will have few and restricted other income sources, it has a small squad of little worth, it has massive debts even if you exclude the "paper" debts, It hasnt made a profit in two decades, it is planning to commit itself to even more debt and loss. There is simply no value to CCFC right now let alone in 12 or 24 months when they might have structured a relegation to division 2. The only "value" is what value it takes to settle out the major creditor SISU and that is not a value of worth

ACL. Well right now anyone looking at purchasing ACL is going to discount anything to do with CCFC as worthless. ACL would say that a large part of their business has nothing to do with CCFC in the first place. Thats true but in the year to 31/05/13 CCFC did create over 300k footfall so losing that would make a difference. You can point to the 1.3m lease and licence lost but people fail to recognise that this is not all rent a big chunk of it relates to recharged services that would not be necessary if the bowl is not used by CCFC and in any case ACL have stated publically that the charge would come down to £400k so they must be able to cover the drop. So right now any sensible investor would look at ACL without CCFC in any case. Will the other incomes drop off ? I am inclined to think not but it might not be possible to grow the business quickly if at all. So would the value drop lower than this current point of vulnerability possibly not unless ACL went in to administration - will that happen with CCFC going, not at all sure it will.

Now SISU might believe they can distress ACL. No doubt they have been trying to. But last figures they had were in June 2012 when they wanted to buy the Alan Higgs Charity shares. Things have moved on since then. Yes they have saddled ACL and its stakeholders with legal bills which will drain the coffers but have added to their own similar costs to do it. That distresses both companies. But they are cutting their ties with the Ricoh, moving away, cutting ties with the fans who are their largest customers. That is high risk because it relies on ACL rolling over now not in 2 years time when they may have sorted out the business model in a different direction. Yes the two years would be hard on both companies but one company is already valued at nil the other if you believe TF is a "busted flush" so must also have little value (personally i think it is worth much more than that even without CCFC)

The biggest risk going forward for CCFC is disassociation. Many fans are going to leave and do other things, they will not be back. It isnt a question of it will be ok when the club comes back to the Coventry area (still not IN Coventry btw). That could easily be in 5 years time and thats a long time, long enough to lose a generation or two of fans. The club might well come back as an under achieving L1 or L2 team in which case where is the attraction. They could come back as just getting promoted to the Championship, to be honest to get a decent return from this scheme they have to come back successful. Any one know how that is guaranteed because I dont. Risky. Will many be past caring by then yes I think they will

Or do we have a franchise club?

 

[oldskyblue58]

Just to add if the club goes to Sixfields it is by no means certain that taking CCFC in to L2 increases the chances of CCFC getting a good deal on the purchase of the Ricoh. Just makes it less likely that CCFC will be bought in my opinion.

For that to work that assumes that ACL sits there and does not change their operation in that three year period - simply not going to be like that. The operation has been under going major changes ever since April 2012 so the process has been under way for some time. ACL can not just sit wait and hope CCFC come back they have to market the other parts of the complex - having no one in the stadium is not desirable but it might open other opportunities in creating space for example. If SISU go ahead with their plan then ACL have to take their business in a different direction. The complex is a lot busier than people realise even without CCFC - will it be enough? well everyone has an opinion on that but most likely yes imo.

Think the premise this is a structured relegation to L2 to gain the Ricoh is a bit too convoluted for me but each to their opinion. why spend what you save on the purchase price of the Ricoh on loans (that probably can not ever be repaid ) to keep the club afloat?

 

[KG7]

@ OSB

I don't have the financial background that you do - it's just a hunch that I have but let me put this scenario to you - which is what I think will happen...

- SISU bring CCFC to back to the Ricoh Arena for the start of the season - paying ACL a minimal amount (perhaps even nothing if we're still in administration).
- CCFC get relegated to L2. Whilst you've pointed out that this will not reduce the value of the arena, it does reduce the value of the arena to CCFC, and allow SISU to continue to claim that the rent is extortionate (relative to the position of the club), and make the likelihood of any prospective buyers bidding for The Ricoh and the club pretty much zero.

We also have to think about why SISU aren't putting the money into the club to make us successful. They have the money - they have proved this by bailing us out whenever they need to and funding ridiculous lawsuits / administration fees. It could be that they want to stop losing money, but they have always lost money with us, and have again proved that they are not particularly bothered about losing money from us by moving us to Northampton and ignoring the fans. (As an aside, I think they have written off making money from the fans and are focusing on using the club to get the arena).

I would also go as far as saying that if SISU owned the arena there is no way we'd be in the position we are in. They would make sure they put the money into the team to maximise the success of the club to maximise the profits they can make out of it.

This sounds Pro-Sisu, but it isn't, I'm just trying to understand their motivations.

 

[oldskyblue58]

I understand it is not being pro sisu KG7 you could be right but it just doesnt make much sense to me to take the club to L2 to claim the stadium is not worth anything to the club. They have already stated that now.

A stated aim of ACL is to be independent of the football industry so I would guess they are working hard towards that. In which case if they could achieve that then anything from CCFC is just additional profit. Yes they want CCFC back, it makes sense to have them playing there but it will be on a basis where it is not a threat to the ACL business (once bitten twice shy?). If they achieve that independence does that make part or all of ACL unsaleable? no. It would of course still leave CCFc as a basket case and unsaleable at a price that suits SISU.

Also if ACL got in trouble financially I think SISU would not be the only bidders.

I dont think things on either side are as clear cut as they might seem. Just dont see the purpose of distressing the club further. Sorting out the financials living within means etc are one thing (and they are trying to do that) but reducing further to go lower to get a stadium no longer connected with ? (CCFC will be liquidated one way or another and break the lease)

 

[RegTheDonk]

Or if ACL don't sign the CVA and limited is liquidated, they just might sell the Ricoh to PH4 and he can have a go at turning their fortunes around.

 

[Houdi]

Taking out the Northampton thing for a moment...

Is it reasonable to suggest that the lower down the leagues we are, the more unsustainable the Ricoh will be for ACL and the cheaper it will ultimately become for SISU to gain a stake in / purchase?

Looking back to our Championship relegation season, there was no apparent reason why we allowed pretty much our entire first team squad to leave on a free and only replace them with Cody McDonald and a couple of goalkeepers...but as soon as we got relegated SISU chirped up with 'this rent is extortionate for a league one club'.

I would speculate that their plan is to take us down to league two to reduce the value of the stadium even further. This also reduces the value of the club making them even less likely a target for a takeover bid - who would pay £20m for a League 2 club without a stadium? Ultimately, the less successful we are, the less attractive we are, and the stronger SISUs position to buy the Arena. Following this theory, administration and the fifteen point penalty for the rejection of the CVA played right into SISUs hands. So does NOPM.

Whilst the Northampton move may or may not be posturing - it is obviously designed to weaken ACLs resolve / bargaining power. Although I do think we will be back at the RICOH on reduced terms, my prediction for the season is we will sign no decent players, receive a 15 point penalty, lose our manager, and go down, which would further reduce the value of the club and the Ricoh, and put SISU in a stronger position to purchase the arena.

I think it is only then (whenever that may be) that we'll see an upturn in the clubs fortune's where it will be in their interest to have a successful club to maximise the profits of the stadium and get us back to the premier league and access to that fortune.

Following on that logic, then SISU may as well get us relegated the following season as well, as presumably Conference football would be cheaper to finance than Division 2.Their move to Sixfields is set to lose the club about 80-90% of their 'customers' this season with no guarantee that many will return if and when they deem to return the club back to its City. The world doesn't live in a vacuum , once a customer is lost often they are lost for good. In the meantime their move to Sixfields will guarantee that SISU will continue to lose money on an increasing scale. Unless their is a last minute deal, in less than 2 weeks the reality of what Fisher has done will be laid bare. Some fans like to speculate how will ACL survive without CCFC, maybe a more pertinent question will be how long can CCFC/SISU survive without the vast majority of its fans.