Scottish Independence (6 Viewers)
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chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Some of the arguments on the Scottish side seem a bit strange. They say they want the pound but have been told that won't happen and don't seem to have a backup plan. I don't see how they can go independent and keep the pound, they wouldn't be allowed in the EU for a start as adopting the Euro is now an entry requirement.
The idea that they can just walk away from the debt is strange, surely their credit rating would be in the bin before they start if they do that?
I've yet to hear anything that really states what benefit there would be in going independent, what's the best case scenario?
Biggest worry is if it does happen we'll be stuck with the Cameron for a long time.
The idea that they can just walk away from the debt is strange, surely their credit rating would be in the bin before they start if they do that?
I've yet to hear anything that really states what benefit there would be in going independent, what's the best case scenario?
Biggest worry is if it does happen we'll be stuck with the Cameron for a long time.
Houchens Head
Fairly well known member from Malvern
I really couldn't give a hoot either way!
Flying Fokker
Well-Known Member
The Scots like a good Braveheart comeback. I think they will struggle once the euphoria of victory has died down.
It makes sense to stay together.
It makes sense to stay together.
Or a Hootananny.
TBF ,let them go If they wish,Sad ,but I think they will.
When i
Iook at all the other Countries /Principality's that have done this over that last twenty years ,It hasn't gone too well,plenty of Blood Spilt ETC,poor Economies ..
I don't see another Banockburn on the Horizon over this ,but Salmond Is a shrewd Fella and getting the 16yr olds the vote was a masterstoke IMO.
Think he cited the Strength of Luxembourg and Monaco as States within Anothers borders who Used said currency successfully for hundreds of years.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Of course, equally we could use the Euro or the Dollar but it's not a great idea as we'd have no means of printing our own supply of currency and would have to rely on it coming into the country another way. That's before you even think about the lack of a central bank and lender of last resort. Then you've got issues around things like you interest rates being set by a foreign country. It is possible but it doesn't strike me as particularly stable without a currency union.
If they had a clear framework in place illustrating how they would work a system that retained the pound without permission that would be one thing but it just seems to be a heads in the sand approach at the moment that could come back to bite them down the line.
They also have the problem that if they don't go for the pound they may not get accepted into the EU / Euro for fear of setting a precedent for Catalan.
skybluedan
Well-Known Member
We will be holding concerts for them with in 10 years
J
Jack Griffin
Guest
Colonel Mustard
New Member
There's a very good piece on the BBC website explaining how Scots are voting for values rather than policies. Well worth a read to understand the Yes mindset: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-29011507
There are too many ifs for Cameron to hurdle: if Scotland says no, if the Conservatives win a majority in 2015, if he isn't overthrown after a split in the party because of Europe...
He's done.
More concerning is the idea of being ruled over by Boris!
J
Jack Griffin
Guest
Well if Scotland goes it will be a toss up between Boris & Nigel. :facepalm:
I don't think Milliband will stand a chance as there are 40 Scottish Labour MPs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_MPs_for_constituencies_in_Scotland_2010–
In fact if Scotland devolves it is I think likely the Scottish Liberals will end up in coalition either with Labour or SNP up there.
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Colonel Mustard
New Member
Miliband may not be everything people want him to be, but he's a significant improvement on Cameron and Boris.
mark82
Super Moderator
Would be impossible for Labour to win an election if Scotland go. At least in the near future.
Colonel Mustard
New Member
If Scotland leaves the union then the ramifications could slam the Tories as much as Labour.
There would be strong calls from within the party for Cameron to go. If he does go, then the Tories have lost their best vote-winner. If he stays on, then some disgruntled backbenchers could defect to Ukip. That, combined with Murdoch's growing support of Farage (they met in the US recently) could result in a bigger split than expected on the right.
And then there's a good chance that the Tory's no.1 election weapon, the economy, would be in trouble post-referendum. Panicky markets, big money earmarked to relocate Trident, attempting to keep the armed forces strong ... voters may have different priorities. At the very least, I'd say a hung parliament and a Lab-Lib coalition is a strong possibility.
Covstu
Well-Known Member
Was up there the other week and there are alot of 'Yes' Signs and campaign shops in every town. I suppose the Yes vote is easier to 'sell' as nowt much will change if 'no' comes into play but i dont think the public appreciates the change that it will have down the line. I do agree with that power needs to be devolved from London as lets face it we are no better off that Scotland or Manceshter, Newcastle etc. We all get stiffened unless you live in the capital.
The 16 year old vote wil be critical in my opinion, all they have to do is show Braveheart and Archie Gemmill scoring against Holland and they will vote for it. Interesting times ahead but i think it will be a 'yes'
The 16 year old vote wil be critical in my opinion, all they have to do is show Braveheart and Archie Gemmill scoring against Holland and they will vote for it. Interesting times ahead but i think it will be a 'yes'
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I live up here and have done for 5 of the last 6 years. Scottish nationalism, on which the Yes campaign is built, is a divisive and backwards ideology that aims to perpetuate stereotypes of English people which simply aren't true. They say we all vote Tory. We don't. They say we are less socially aware than them. Look at my sig. They say London gets all their money. Scotland receives more per head than London and has for years.
I will be moving back to England as soon as my PhD up here finishes, if there is a Yes. You get people making funny comments anyway but the referendum has made it ridiculous. Take identity politics out of it and 'values' are broadly the same across Britain, at least in my experience.
It is a campaign of division and nationalism and I will not live in a country that embraces it.
I will be moving back to England as soon as my PhD up here finishes, if there is a Yes. You get people making funny comments anyway but the referendum has made it ridiculous. Take identity politics out of it and 'values' are broadly the same across Britain, at least in my experience.
It is a campaign of division and nationalism and I will not live in a country that embraces it.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
The actual granting of independence would actually occur in 2016 one year after the general election. So it would likely to be a farce.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Maybe so but due to the Conservatives lack of popularity north of the border the No campaign has really been Labour led. The performances of Darling and the Downing Street MP's assigned to the task has been total apathy.
If the vote is yes Cameron - supposedly representing a Union Party will be finished but so will Milliband. Good as he is up there with Foot and Kinnock as a wholly unelectable individual for the position of PM.
Colonel Mustard
New Member
I think Miliband is better protected from a Yes fallout for a couple of reasons. The first is that Darling is the face of the Labour/No campaign and Cameron is (meant to be) the unifying prime minister; that gives EM a couple of substantial bodies to hide behind. The second reason is that the pressure will be almost squarely on Cameron -- he has Kippers, the Murdoch press and backbenchers ready to skewer him. If he stays, Miliband must stay; if he goes, the establishment would be wary of a continued bloodbath, both for the sake of international prestige and to keep markets calm.
The perversity here is that the Conservatives are hoping that Labour saves their bacon. No prominent Tory can cross the border without boosting the Yes vote. I can't see the Labour party, in that context, pressuring their leader to resign. They're more likely to double-down on pushing for Cameron's resignation.
Thankfully for him we don't vote for PMs. All he needs is enough elected Labour MPs to become PM, and the bookmakers still have that as the most likely scenario.
J
Jack Griffin
Guest
If this happens the whole political landscape of Scotland & what is left of the UK will be in upheaval & Cameron will be given the bums rush.
skybluejelly
Well-Known Member
I've. Just come back from two weeks in isle of Skye and the highlands ...and the yes banners and campaigners are everywhere ... I saw one no placard in a large country house...
All this about using the pound anyway is foolish ..the banks have already said they will relocate south of the border if there is a yes vote and therefore they will have no lender of last resort... Salmond thinks he is being clever ... If they go it's needs to be made clear that they can not come crawling back when it all goes tits up
All this about using the pound anyway is foolish ..the banks have already said they will relocate south of the border if there is a yes vote and therefore they will have no lender of last resort... Salmond thinks he is being clever ... If they go it's needs to be made clear that they can not come crawling back when it all goes tits up
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The centre right in Scotland has been blighted by two things-the popularity of the SNP in traditionally right areas, and the Scottish Tories' affiliation with the main RUK branch. Independence would remove those obstacles with the SNP having achieved its primary aim, and Conservatism would rise accordingly.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Given their view on ridding themselves of the royal family after the queens demise I thought you'd be all for it.
President Salmond is your idea of utopia isn't it?
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
In actual fact Grendel the official SNP stance is that they want to retain the monarchy, as contradictory as it may seem. He is the leader of a party and movement which fuels anti-English sentiment and uses it to win votes. No chance of me supporting him being the leader in any capacity.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Yes it is but they suggest they will hold a referendum to leave when the queen does go.
The whole thing is so flawed really.
They can keep the pound but almost certainly cannot ally it to the bank if England so essentially will be worthless. They will be out of Europe unless they join the euro despite salmonds protestations that clearly is the policy.
If then they get in the euro that means they have a euro passport and have free access to all countries in the euro as they do with them. Not us though and almost certainly we'd have to havf border controls to stop non pass ported migration from other Europeans.
What about the general election in 2015? Given that 40 odd MP's will be out of a job a year later it's rendered a farce.
Ridiculous really.
J
Jack Griffin
Guest
I think they would end up with a pound that was like the Irish Punt was till 1978, tied to the pound with no control over the exchange rate.
The minute anyone got wind of a proposal to use a floating exchange rate all the wealth would flee the county.
And they'd be buying all the coins & notes from English manufacturers (i.e. the Royal Mint & De la Rue).
The minute anyone got wind of a proposal to use a floating exchange rate all the wealth would flee the county.
And they'd be buying all the coins & notes from English manufacturers (i.e. the Royal Mint & De la Rue).
Covstu
Well-Known Member
I agree with Kevin Bridges, I think they should call it smackerrooneys instead of the pound
bigfatronssba
Well-Known Member
It's interesting that very few people seem to believe this will improve the standard of living in Scotland. It seems what is pushing the yes vote is nothing more than English hatred. Yet I cannot for the life of me see what generates that. I don't know what England as a country has done that is so bad that the scots are willing to risk everything to get away.
Compare this to Wales, where on the news this morning some Welsh were actually saying they would rather be governed direct from London to reduce the level of buerocracy.
Compare this to Wales, where on the news this morning some Welsh were actually saying they would rather be governed direct from London to reduce the level of buerocracy.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It comes from two main things: education and the media. In Scottish schools people are taught endlessly about the 'Wars of Independence', about Wallace and Bruce fighting against invading English armies. Throughout history they teach Scots ways in which England was the antagonist-for example my missus who went to school in Aberdeen was taught that English officers sent Scots over the top first in WW1 to save English lives. A negative impression of England as a country is built up during people's school years. Then in the media you see ad campaigns playing on the stereotype of England fans always bragging about 1966, English people all being right-leaning Tories who are generally more selfish than Scots. It gets ingrained into their heads and they just can't shake it off.
I have been told even by unionist Scots that I should be ashamed of my ancestors murdering Scottish peasants in the 1300s. 'English' gets tagged on to other words as an extra insult in the same way a racist might add 'black' or 'Asian'. Don't get me wrong, hardly anyone gets physically attacked for being English and you don't get shouted at in the street. But the sentiment is strong and you experience it in one form or another on a regular basis.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Good analysis that. Can I add though, that isn't an additional part of it something that I grumble about down here, that the Labour party in many people's eyes has moved so far to the right that it's lost a lump of it's left-leaning support? If you're against stuff like the bedroom tax, the bonfire of the welfare system, and the endless obsession with marketising the NHS, who do you vote for now? Is this also feeding into Scottish dissatisfaction with Westminster overall?
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Dissatisfaction with New Labour drove up SNP support, there is no question of that. However the opinion that the SNP are hardened left wingers is a bit misguided given that they want to cut corporation tax harder than the Tories, they have been privatising the NHS to the same levels as in England (just quietly and behind closed doors) and despite hating the bedroom tax only 2 of their MPs voted against the recent amendments to it.
The centre-right suffers a lot more in Scotland from their affiliation with the RUK branch, and SNP inroads into rural areas causes them to lose votes.
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johnniericoh
Member
Infinitely more preferable than that odd looking pratt who has no plan B let alone Plan A