3 games to go (5 Viewers)

[covcity4life]

Glass half full

Very likely no matter how bad we do it will got to last game at home

Glass half empty

Even if we win next 2 if may go to last game of seaosn

 

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[play_in_skyblue_stripes]

We're obviously in a strong position, but that late Boro goal has made it very tight. We effectively have a 2 point cushion owing to GD, with 2 exceptionally tough away games to come. Plymouth will throw everything at it Monday. Lose and we could find ourselves outside the top 6 in a couple of days. Aware I am stating the obvious, but there is a long way to go here. Would hate to lose the next two and have nothing to play for against Boro. Unlikely but possible. Would take a point Monday in a heartbeat.

I agree with this.
I do think a win at Plymouth is more achievable than at the very cramped Kenilworth road.

There are quite a few factors to consider and as someone pointed out a huge one on how Sheffield Wednesday manager and players react to the behind scenes at that club.
I'm one of the people who do overcomplicate things!

Annoying penalty given to Middlesbrough has had quite an impact .

Play like yesterday in all games , we will make it. However playing relegation threatened teams is very tricky away from home. We certainly know what that's like from years of avoiding relegation.

 

[skyblue_55]

The 3 points we are ahead are massive , at this stage of the season.
Let them worry about their chances , instead of us , seemingly always being nervous.
Lampard & the other coaches are well prepared for these games & not looking over their shoulders, but fully focused on our next game(s) .

 

[Lamps]

There's no such thing as an easy game unless you're playing Sheffield Wednesday. Teams near the top are after the playoffs or top 2. Teams near the bottom are playing for survival. Those with nothing to play for don't have to worry about making mistakes so can attack more.

What's most important is we're playing well.

 

[fernandopartridge]

When we had 3 games left in 2023 we were two points behind Millwall in 5th and a point behind Blackburn in 6th having played a game more. Things can change so quickly at this point.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I think it’s highly unlikely Boro win their last 3 after pulling that off last night.

We should wrap it up before we play them

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You know, weirdly, I am more worried now than I was before yesterday. Go figure.

It was looking all so rosy until that last gasp winner for Middlesbrough.

So, here's my concern and the scenario I am worried about. It's that Monday might have to be a must win.

If we don't beat Plymouth and only came away with a draw and Boro won again on Monday that would put us on 67 points and them on 66.

Draw again against Luton and Boro won again, they would overtake us at that point. Them on 69 points, us on 68.

In that scenario, we would then have to beat Middlesbrough on the last day and they would only need a draw.

Therefore, I think Monday really needs to be a must win. Boro's next two games are Sheff Wed and Norwich (who inexplicably let 5 goals in at home yesterday to Portsmouth).

I really thought we were pretty much home and dry until that last gasp Boro penalty and I was also thinking that Sunderland would get something at Bristol.

Out saving grace however, might be Bristol City. Next 2 games they have Luton away and then Leeds away. They might possibly struggle to get anything out of those games

Could have really done with Derby beating Luton yesterday I feel. That would have cut Plymouth adrift and 6 points from safety, with relegation all but certain and might have made our task a little easier against them. That Luton win did Plymouth a huge favour.

Anyway, I know I am overthinking it, but I was really confident before West Brom, but now we have beaten West Brom, I am less confident.

I struggled to sleep last night, so I kept thinking about it and it was swirling
around my head on how it could all go wrong.

The scenario we need, is to be already confirmed as in the playoffs when it comes to play Boro, or that we only need a draw against Boro to secure our place.

I do think we need to beat Plymouth. Luton could prove to be our hardest fixture. They were maybe a little lucky to come away with a draw from the Derby game, but their defence was magnificent.

Not sure who to root for in the Luton v Bristol match. Luton win and it hurts Bristol. But if Bristol win, Luton could again look like certainties to go down.

I do actually think Luton will get something out of that game.

I am thinking, forgetting about Boro for a second, if we win on Monday and Luton beat Bristol, we go above Bristol and that then leaves the next confrontations as, us vs Luton and Bristol away at Leeds. A draw then might just be mighty fine for us and pull us clearer of Bristol.

Anyway, the conclusion of all this brain dump is, my brain is now exhausted and has turned to a big mush of jelly.

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You’re overthinking things Otis!

Do a simple role reversal, with 9 points left to play for, we are 3 points ahead of Boro. You wouldn’t trade places with them because they have to be faultless. Even then, unless they are 3 points ahead of us going into the final day, they won’t be comfortable. Frankly, I think we’ll beat Boro on the final day just as we did against Sunderland and WBA.

Winning yesterday cannot be understated because it’s effectively KO’d WBA and means barring a collapse v Luton and Plymouth, we will be 6th going into the final day and puts us firmly in the driving seat. Our home record under Lampard has been Top 3-4.

Had Boro not been given that penalty, it would have more or less been game over for them too.

 

[Sick Boy]

Lampard & the other coaches are well prepared for these games & not looking over their shoulders, but fully focused on our next game(s) .

I’d like to think this is where Lampard’s mentality from his playing career will be a major plus for us.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I’d like to think this is where Lampard’s mentality from his playing career will be a major plus for us.

He’s also been through the rigmarole of the playoffs before

 

[skyblue025]

I'm not worried about playing 2 of the bottom 3 next. There is a reason they are down there and it's because they been consistently shit all season. If we play anywhere near like we did yesterday it's 6 points. We have been playing very well for months now so will take a complete loss of form not to make it.

 

[stevefloyd]

Game 1
Plymouth V Cov
Luton V Bristol
Sheff Wed V Middlesbrough

Game 2
Luton V Cov
Leeds V Bristol
Middlesbrough V Norwich

Game 3
Cov V Middlesbrough
Bristol V Preston

Tight as a gnats arse. I'd say Boro are almost guaranteed 6pt by the time we play them, they have got lucky having two teams with zero to play for. Wonder if there is a scenario where we both just need a draw by the time we meet?

If we needed to draw and the same with Middlesborough, that would ignite some more hatred from their scummy neighbours lmao...

 

[Sick Boy]

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think it’ll go down to the final game with us needing a draw and Boro a win.

 

[theferret]

I'm not worried about playing 2 of the bottom 3 next. There is a reason they are down there and it's because they been consistently shit all season. If we play anywhere near like we did yesterday it's 6 points. We have been playing very well for months now so will take a complete loss of form not to make it.

True, but I'm not sure this matters all that much, these are cup finals now, they'll be a scrap. Besides our form against teams near the bottom away from home hasn't been great. Stoke, Cardiff, Derby, Pompey, Hull - just 2 points from 18 from those games.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Beating Plymouth might be enough. Not that I’m settling for that but beating bottom of the league puts us 69 points. Maybe a draw for good measure to seal it with 70.

If we beat Boro on the final day, we could more or less do what we want between then and now. I’m confident we’ll get 4 points from Plymouth and Luton.

The pressure is all on them.

 

[skyblue025]

True, but I'm not sure this matters all that much, these are cup finals now, they'll be a scrap. Besides our form against teams near the bottom away from home hasn't been great. Stoke, Cardiff, Derby, Pompey, Hull - just 2 points from 18 from those games.

A lot of those were before new year though. Our form and results have massively improved since then. We have arguably our strongest team fit and playing now which also helps us. We match their desire our quality wins it.

 

[skybluecam]

We win our next two and Boro have to win as well otherwise it's done before the final day.

On the other hand, even if we only take a point from our next two then a win on the final day still guarantees us playoffs.

We're in a great position.

 

[shmmeee]

A lot of those were before new year though. Our form and results have massively improved since then. We have arguably our strongest team fit and playing now which also helps us. We match their desire our quality wins it.

Hull was two games against and Derby seven games ago.

 

[skyblue025]

Hull was two games against and Derby seven games ago.

Both the Derby games were freak results and Hull we should of been out of sight. You could make a solid case we should have won all those games but had bad days in from of goal. I am not overly concerned

 

[shmmeee]

Both the Derby games were freak results and Hull we should of been out of sight. You could make a solid case we should have won all those games but had bad days in from of goal. I am not overly concerned

We can have a bad day on Monday is the point. Plymouth have beaten Sheff Utd at home and by all accounts should have beaten Boro away last two. Underestimate them at our peril IMO. Luton too will still have the nucleus of the side that used to wallop us regularly. It’ll be down to mentality of both teams in both those games i think.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

True, but I'm not sure this matters all that much, these are cup finals now, they'll be a scrap. Besides our form against teams near the bottom away from home hasn't been great. Stoke, Cardiff, Derby, Pompey, Hull - just 2 points from 18 from those games.

Every game is a scrap for us too. If we control those games as we have done against Hull and WBA, I just can’t see us failing to win any of the next 2 games.

For Luton and Plymouth, they will need to defend for their lives but make no mistake, they also need to win games which pressure on them.

 

[bigfatronssba]

Every team we now play needs to beat us.

We tend to play better against those sort of teams.
The games we struggle in are when the opponent just defends

 

[Grendel]

There's no such thing as an easy game unless you're playing Sheffield Wednesday. Teams near the top are after the playoffs or top 2. Teams near the bottom are playing for survival. Those with nothing to play for don't have to worry about making mistakes so can attack more.

What's most important is we're playing well.

Sheffield Wednesday will offer more than Boros opponents after that

 

[covcity4life]

I think it’s highly unlikely Boro win their last 3 after pulling that off last night.

We should wrap it up before we play them

That would mean they don't win their next 2 not 3

 

[skyblue025]

They walloped us once not regularly, Luton haven't beaten us in the league since 2021.
Plymouth have beaten us once in our last 9 visits to Home Park.
We could have a bad day true enough but we don't have many and definitely not 3 on the bounce.

 

[David O'Day]

We should beat Plymouth and Luton as we are much better teams than them.

 

[shmmeee]

They walloped us once not regularly, Luton haven't beaten us in the league since 2021.
Plymouth have beaten us once in our last 9 visits to Home Park.
We could have a bad day true enough but we don't have many and definitely not 3 on the bounce.

 

[bigfatronssba]

View attachment 42644

So the last time we won away at Luton we ended up getting promoted?

 

[skyblue025]

You're right they have beaten us once in 2022 you're not right on them walloping us regularly.
Why so much doom and gloom. We're in great form and they aren't.

 

[steve cooper]

Bristol could well be on 67 on the final day with a worse GD than us

 

[Alkhen]

Every team we now play needs to beat us.

We tend to play better against those sort of teams.
The games we struggle in are when the opponent just defends

Good point, Plymouth definitely can't afford to play for anything another than a win. Depends how Luton get on against Bristol I guess.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

We can have a bad day on Monday is the point. Plymouth have beaten Sheff Utd at home and by all accounts should have beaten Boro away last two. Underestimate them at our peril IMO. Luton too will still have the nucleus of the side that used to wallop us regularly. It’ll be down to mentality of both teams in both those games i think.

That game was a rather freak result and they had 3 shots on target.

The home records of Luton and Plymouth aren’t great so we should be confident of picking up 2-3 points as a minimum.

Going into the final day behind Boro by 2 points (worst case scenario) gives a good opportunity to leap frog them. In most scenarios, 4 points ensures we finish 6th provided we beat Boro.

 

[baldy]

If we beat Boro on the final day, we could more or less do what we want between then and now. I’m confident we’ll get 4 points from Plymouth and Luton.

The pressure is all on them.

Why are some people talking as if the Boro match is next up - does my head in

 

[Lamps]

That game was a rather freak result and they had 3 shots on target.

The home records of Luton and Plymouth aren’t great so we should be confident of picking up 2-3 points as a minimum.

Going into the final day behind Boro by 2 points (worst case scenario) gives a good opportunity to leap frog them. In most scenarios, 4 points ensures we finish 6th provided we beat Boro.

4 points from the next 2 games means we would only need a draw against Middlesbrough.

If we only pick up 1 point in our next 2 games and Middlesbrough win both we would still leapfrog them and also be certain of a playoff place if we beat them last game of the season.

 

[Warwickhunt]

Boro have to win 3 games if we win 2 so they have to be faultless which can be quite difficult. In all the games it will be who scores first!

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

4 points from the next 2 games means we would only need a draw against Middlesbrough.

If we only pick up 1 point in our next 2 games and Middlesbrough win both we would still leapfrog them and also be certain of a playoff place if we beat them last game of the season.

Exactly which is why we’re both relaxed about finishing 6th. The combination required for a 6 point swing going into the final day just isn’t likely. Going into yesterday’s match, there was about a 68% chance we’d finish in the playoffs and the needle would have moved to 70-80% following yesterday’s result.

It was always going to be a blessing that we had our most of our difficult games against the teams around us were at home Sunderland, Burnley, WBA and Boro at home in this last stretch of games.