500 votes cast already (1 Viewer)

[hill83]

Egg and spoon race mixed with the sack race?

Could well be, we'll see when the results of the survey come out.

 

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[asb]

Weren't people on here before saying that they voted loads of times on a CET one once?

There is a similar problem with petitions, but that never seems to stop many people, even the local journalists quoting them as evidence of huge support of their own personal opinion.

All the polls that have been done have had the same or similar flaws.

From a purely methodological perspective they are all rubbish.

From a Sociological perspective they are indicative of strength of feeling.

From the perspective of the poll supporters, theirs is highly accurate reflection of the support for their own viewpoint.

Reality is they should all be labelled "Just for Fun", and used as a talking point.

 

[MichaelCCFC]

I agree, I had to put 'mixed race' no option to say what mix though. And who gives a shit anyway!

Also, to test it I've voted 3 times from 3 different I.P addresses. How will you be able to tell which 3 are me?

2 good points in 2 days Hill! It is IP addresses that are identified so if someone has access to lots of different ones they could vote lots of times. I've spent half an hour monitoring votes and can't see any particular pattern of this happening but I will note it when I do the results. The other practical point is that it's now up to 1200 votes so someone doing a few votes is not going to have an impact (or at least not within a normal statistical margin of error) and for anyone wanting to shift the percentages significantly they would need to cast scores of votes and a pattern of new votes all in a particular direction will show up like a sore thumb. So from having thought I was going to have to scrap the whole thing, any bit of research throws up methodological issues and the survey is in overall terms fit for purpose.

 

[Jack Griffin]

2 good points in 2 days Hill! It is IP addresses that are identified so if someone has access to lots of different ones they could vote lots of times. I've spent half an hour monitoring votes and can't see any particular pattern of this happening but I will note it when I do the results. The other practical point is that it's now up to 1200 votes so someone doing a few votes is not going to have an impact (or at least not within a normal statistical margin of error) and for anyone wanting to shift the percentages significantly they would need to cast scores of votes and a pattern of new votes all in a particular direction will show up like a sore thumb. So from having thought I was going to have to scrap the whole thing, any bit of research throws up methodological issues and the survey is in overall terms fit for purpose.

Cool, that beats the 'Get Cov Back to the Ricoh' campaign Reid supported which has got only a shade over 1000 votes after weeks of operation.

 

[AndreasB]

Genuine question Michael. What will be your strategy for communicating the results of the survey as a representative sample of fans?
Are the Telegraph lined up? BBC Midlands Today? Radio 5 Live? Football websites?
Who is writing the summary of the survey? You? A journalist?

 

[torchomatic]

Hopefully he will say that the majority (or whatever) of the <number> of fans who voted stated so and so rather than a blanket "the majority of fans..." which is inaccurate and misleading.

 

[Jack Griffin]

People quoting this "24 people" all the time need to remember this is more than have attended most of the Sisu protests. It is also the only one that seems to have spurned any action from it, although maybe the timing of talks was in fact complete coincidence.

Besides, we should be pressuring BOTH sides to talk.

What was the biggest protest IN COVENTRY, let me see, 5000 (or more) who marched from Gosford Green to Boadgate.. then quite a few stayed around to listen to some speeches.

 

[shmmeee]

Just for those throwing sample size around. Using this calculator (http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm) with a population of 100,000 (probably optimistic for active City fans) for a confidence level of 95% you need a sample size of 661.

There are issues with the poll, especially the wording of the Ricoh question. But sample size probably isn't one of them.

 

[AndreasB]

Just for those throwing sample size around. Using this calculator (http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm) with a population of 100,000 (probably optimistic for active City fans) for a confidence level of 95% you need a sample size of 661.

There are issues with the poll, especially the wording of the Ricoh question. But sample size probably isn't one of them.

AND you will know the ethnicity of the sample so there will always be someone to blame.

 

[asb]

...The other practical point is that it's now up to 1200 votes so someone doing a few votes is not going to have an impact (or at least not within a normal statistical margin of error) and for anyone wanting to shift the percentages significantly they would need to cast scores of votes and a pattern of new votes all in a particular direction will show up like a sore thumb. So from having thought I was going to have to scrap the whole thing, any bit of research throws up methodological issues and the survey is in overall terms fit for purpose.

All because an option has so far not been selected, it is not beyond probability that someone might share the link with like minded friends who all wish to express the unpopular vote. Would you identify them as a pattern?

How does that differ from possible multiple votes for the popular options, does that stand out to you? or do you assume that if they pick the popular option that conforms to the poll setters original hypothesis that they must be real?

So multiple votes against the grain will be a sore thumb, and multiple votes with the grain will be..?

This is not an attack against you or anyone that wishes to try and understand the feelings of the supporters in this case. I am just concerned that even the most representative poll can be failed by it's own inherent flaws.

 

[AndreasB]

All because an option has so far not been selected, it is not beyond probability that someone might share the link with like minded friends who all wish to express the unpopular vote. Would you identify them as a pattern?

How does that differ from possible multiple votes for the popular options, does that stand out to you? or do you assume that if they pick the popular option that conforms to the poll setters original hypothesis that they must be real?


He cant do capital letters mate so removing statistical anomalies through linear regression might be a step too far...

So multiple votes against the grain will be a sore thumb, and multiple votes with the grain will be..?

This is not an attack against you or anyone that wishes to try and understand the feelings of the supporters in this case. I am just concerned that even the most representative poll can be failed by it's own inherent flaws.

 

[MichaelCCFC]

Genuine question Michael. What will be your strategy for communicating the results of the survey as a representative sample of fans?
Are the Telegraph lined up? BBC Midlands Today? Radio 5 Live? Football websites?
Who is writing the summary of the survey? You? A journalist?

A representative sample is impossible because no one knows what the characteristics of the fanbase are so it's about questions of whether the survey is generalizable, indicative and robust - I'll do a note on the methodology with the results which I will do and will be a full list of the tables and I will highlight what I see as key findings and people can then do what they want with the numbers. I'll email findings to the kcic email list, post on the website and on FB and twitter. I've asked the cov tel if they would be willing to print a copy of the survey so people without internet access can fill in a hard copy - I've had an acknowledgement but not a full reply. I'll be on the cwr phone in on Friday to publicise the survey to a different audience but whether cwr are interested in the results is a different matter. My interest in this is as a campaigner and the questions I'm interested in are about who people blame and attitudes to afc. Otherwise, as I say, people can do what they want with the results.

 

[MichaelCCFC]

All because an option has so far not been selected, it is not beyond probability that someone might share the link with like minded friends who all wish to express the unpopular vote. Would you identify them as a pattern?

How does that differ from possible multiple votes for the popular options, does that stand out to you? or do you assume that if they pick the popular option that conforms to the poll setters original hypothesis that they must be real?

So multiple votes against the grain will be a sore thumb, and multiple votes with the grain will be..?

This is not an attack against you or anyone that wishes to try and understand the feelings of the supporters in this case. I am just concerned that even the most representative poll can be failed by it's own inherent flaws.

It's pretty simple. With the first few hundred votes things jump about a bit but pretty soon fall into a pattern. %s continue to change but only by 2 or 3 points. If something were suddenly to change by 5 percentage points or more it would set alarm bells ringing and thankfully there is no evidence of that at all. A few people casting 2 or 3 votes from different ISPs falls within the margin of error and isn't something to lose sleep over.

 

[Jack Griffin]

It's pretty simple. With the first few hundred votes things jump about a bit but pretty soon fall into a pattern. %s continue to change but only by 2 or 3 points. If something were suddenly to change by 5 percentage points or more it would set alarm bells ringing and thankfully there is no evidence of that at all. A few people casting 2 or 3 votes from different ISPs falls within the margin of error and isn't something to lose sleep over.

And lets face it, the distribution opinions expressed by people making multiple entries will probably take roughly the same shape as the general vote (though perhaps more likely to add a little extra weight to the more extreme ends of the spectrum).

And I think a multiple option poll is superior in my view to a petition where only one argument can be supported.

 

[Nick]

It's pretty simple. With the first few hundred votes things jump about a bit but pretty soon fall into a pattern. %s continue to change but only by 2 or 3 points. If something were suddenly to change by 5 percentage points or more it would set alarm bells ringing and thankfully there is no evidence of that at all. A few people casting 2 or 3 votes from different ISPs falls within the margin of error and isn't something to lose sleep over.

What happens if it was the same person voting from the start? It doesn't have to be all in the space of 5 minutes.

 

[MichaelCCFC]

What happens if it was the same person voting from the start? It doesn't have to be all in the space of 5 minutes.

I'm happy responding to factual questions but your negative, undermining, hypothetical queries with not a scrap of supporting evidence (plus making things up relating to what I said about the previous poll) are both extremely unhelpful and increasingly tedious.

 

[Nick]

I'm happy responding to factual questions but your negative, undermining, hypothetical queries with not a scrap of supporting evidence (plus making things up relating to what I said about the previous poll) are both extremely unhelpful and increasingly tedious.

I am not sure what evidence I would need for saying "what if"? I am not being negative, in fact constructive on how you can make the polls more secure with things like membership required. What isn't factual in saying that the poll "could be" tampered and IF people voted multiple times that it could alter the results? (Which it has been confirmed they have) Surely you would want it to be as accurate as possible?

So because I don't agree that the poll will give accurate statistics I need evidence and it is undermining and unhelpful?

I am not too sure what evidence I would need for saying that the way the poll has been done it could happen? I am more than willing to help you technically to try and get the poll as secure as possible, make it easier for you to get reports from the stats and also help you promote it if the questions were more of a wide range but obviously that isn't helpful.

I am not sure what evidence you are asking me for?

 

[dongonzalos]

At the end of the day when a poll comes out not supporting someone's opinion they will state.

The questions were loaded.
It has been sabotaged.
I think the last one someone was saying loads if Villa and Leicester fans posted on it, priceless.

To swing a poll this big someone would have to be obsessively and excessively posting and posting and posting.

I appreciate it is remotely possible but very highly unlikely.

So personally I will be interested in the outcome and will give it credit.

 

[Nick]

At the end of the day when a poll comes out not supporting someone's opinion they will state.

The questions were loaded.
It has been sabotaged.
I think the last one someone was saying loads if Villa and Leicester fans posted on it, priceless.

To swing a poll this big someone would have to be obsessively and excessively posting and posting and posting.

I appreciate it is remotely possible but very highly unlikely.

So personally I will be interested in the outcome and will give it credit.

I think most of the time the polls will get the outcome wanted, whether it is cet, ccfc or on here.

Results are always interesting though and how they are used.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I'll do a note on the methodology

Thanks for this bit, sad man that I am I'm actually quite interested in this, especially as I do have a couple of questions about it but, well, I'll wait until your notes as you might end up answering my questions within them anyway

 

[dongonzalos]

I think most of the time the polls will get the outcome wanted, whether it is cet, ccfc or on here.

Results are always interesting though and how they are used.

To be fair I think with or without a poll. I am pretty sure.

Most people think SISU carry a greater burden of blame than the council or ACL.

Most people think if the ground should be sold to SISU. It should be for the true value and should include safeguarding conditions to protect the football club.

Some will think the ground should never be sold to SISU

Some will think it should be a discounted price.

Some will completely blame SISU others will apportion the major blame to the council.

However I would imagine all polls will come back with the top two statements as supported by the majority.

 

[DazzleTommyDazzle]

I think most of the time the polls will get the outcome wanted, whether it is cet, ccfc or on here.

Results are always interesting though and how they are used.

Results are also interesting for how they are denied (and who by).

 

[mark82]

What was the biggest protest IN COVENTRY, let me see, 5000 (or more) who marched from Gosford Green to Boadgate.. then quite a few stayed around to listen to some speeches.

I said most. That is the obvious exception. Can't compare like for like though as the city centre one was a weekend and the council one a weekday when everyone is at work. Not saying it would have got as many if it had but it outshone the Ryton protests which were local.

All I am saying anyway is that pressure needs applying to all sides. I just don't get the ACL / Council love in at the expense of the club. It's bizarre.

 

[Jack Griffin]

I said most. That is the obvious exception. Can't compare like for like though as the city centre one was a weekend and the council one a weekday when everyone is at work. Not saying it would have got as many if it had but it outshone the Ryton protests which were local.

All I am saying anyway is that pressure needs applying to all sides. I just don't get the ACL / Council love in at the expense of the club. It's bizarre.

I think most of the London protests were on a weekday too.

 

[mark82]

I think most of the London protests were on a weekday too.

They were, yes. Hence they only had a handful of people.

 

[stupot07]

To be fair I think with or without a poll. I am pretty sure.

Most people think SISU carry a greater burden of blame than the council or ACL.

Most people think if the ground should be sold to SISU. It should be for the true value and should include safeguarding conditions to protect the football club.

Some will think the ground should never be sold to SISU

Some will think it should be a discounted price.

Some will completely blame SISU others will apportion the major blame to the council.

However I would imagine all polls will come back with the top two statements as supported by the majority.

I think the majority if people don't care how much the Ricoh is sold for as long as it's acceptable to both sides as long as it includes safeguarding conditions.

But as you think polls are pretty robust I can only assume that you agree that we'll only be getting crowds of 6k if we return to the Ricoh under sisu.

 

[dongonzalos]

I think the majority if people don't care how much the Ricoh is sold for as long as it's acceptable to both sides as long as it includes safeguarding conditions.

But as you think polls are pretty robust I can only assume that you agree that we'll only be getting crowds of 6k if we return to the Ricoh under sisu.

Was it yourself that thought rival fans maybe reading the CET and sabotaging the poll
or was it Grendel? I struggle to remember.

 

[Grendel]

The poll is utterly pointless. Unless it goes only to season ticket holders from last season it is an utter waste of time.

I am sure the likes of James, Pendry and the fool Dadgad will answer in a very predictable way safe in the knowledge that whatever happens and whoever the club plays they will not be going anyway.

 

[asb]

It's pretty simple. With the first few hundred votes things jump about a bit but pretty soon fall into a pattern. %s continue to change but only by 2 or 3 points. If something were suddenly to change by 5 percentage points or more it would set alarm bells ringing and thankfully there is no evidence of that at all. A few people casting 2 or 3 votes from different ISPs falls within the margin of error and isn't something to lose sleep over.

Still does not explain the probability of vote rigging.

It explains more about your own perceptions on the likely results and what fits within your ideal range.

It is better to plan research with the chance of problems removed before they sour the results, not pretend that it is better to have a person remove them after the event, if they spot them based on their own perception of what is unusual, Which is what you are doing.

All that really happens with all these polls (and petitions) is that one side uses it as irrefutable evidence, while the other side challenges the weakness. If you don't remove the possibility of the weakness you are not going to be offering anything to the discussion other then something else to argue about.

Something not to lose sleep about as long as it fits into your own perception of normal.

 

[MichaelCCFC]

Still does not explain the probability of vote rigging.

It explains more about your own perceptions on the likely results and what fits within your ideal range.

It is better to plan research with the chance of problems removed before they sour the results, not pretend that it is better to have a person remove them after the event, if they spot them based on their own perception of what is unusual, Which is what you are doing.

All that really happens with all these polls (and petitions) is that one side uses it as irrefutable evidence, while the other side challenges the weakness. If you don't remove the possibility of the weakness you are not going to be offering anything to the discussion other then something else to argue about.

Something not to lose sleep about as long as it fits into your own perception of normal.

You're muddling a couple of different issues but to be more positive, the survey method was always going to be a bit of an experiment so - and remembering the budget for this is £0.00 - how would you approach it to deal with the criticisms you make?

 

[MichaelCCFC]

"I think the majority if people don't care how much the Ricoh is sold for as long as it's acceptable to both sides as long as it includes safeguarding conditions." I can't decide whether you meant this as a joke or not but in the context of a thread about a survey it certainly made me smile!

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Even though I feel it a rather pointless exercise, I just completed the poll anyway....


....I opted for Green, 42, Paul Mariner & Lamb Pilaf.

 

[RoboCCFC90]

Even though I feel it a rather pointless exercise, I just completed the poll anyway....


....I opted for Green, 42, Paul Mariner & Lamb Pilaf.

Mixing a poll and a Indian Menu again JHFC?

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

No, just answering the questions.....

...did you not see section 2 Robbo?

Favourite colour?
Favourite significant 2 digit number?
Favourite Mullet/England 82 Admiral Shirt combo?
Favourite Afghan dish?

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Just look at that....

...An absolute thing of beauty....

...and the shirt ain't bad either