Can't find my spreadsheet now, but I plugged in our league position and our average attendance all the way back to before the war.
We get a boost for any success (cup win, promotion) with 5-7k ish. Then it starts decaying without even moderate success. And drops significantly (5-6k) on relegation. Also, a new stadium boosts roughly 30%.
In other words, 12.5k is only enough if you plan for last season to be better than when it opens. Even a 10k starting base would give 13k in the first season (30% boost for new stadium) and be too big.
What does this say for the ambition of the owners over the next few seasons? If we have any ideas of promotion we'd need 15-20k in the first season up if we're in a new ground. If we don't do so well maybe down to 15k average after a few seasons. That's at the top end of the second "phase" and doesn't allow for big games/away followings, of which there will be more.
If we plan to be a top 10 Championship side then 20-22k average isn't out of the reams of possibility. With Pressley backed properly we could (should) be there in 3 seasons or less. Then we're sat filling a 23k stadium or waiting for "structural changes" meaning what? Another ground share? All the while a 32k stadium sat down the road, actually in the City of Coventry.
I'll give my all to any consultation, especially as (as pointed out today) many of the ideas can be applied at the Ricoh too. But I worry about the capacity issue especially and what it means for how Seppala views the next few years playing out.