Are we going to "shit" our way up!? (7 Viewers)

Nuskyblue

Well-Known Member
Without Haji, EMC you are going to struggle to get the same xG.

Interesting stat there tho is the below 1 XG against for quite a few teams. While having high XG is good, it does not favours if we have to score three to get three points like we did earlier in the season
Yep, for a while you could almost bank on us conceding 2.

Dovin has done well the 7 conceded in this run since Christmas really is rather good.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Contrary to your xG outputs.

Dont Get It Fran Healy GIF by Travis
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
Given that it is all about money, here is one way of looking at it

London: (7) Arsenal, Brentford, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Spurs, West Ham
Large Cities: (6) Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle
Small Cities: (7) Bournemouth, Brighton, Ipswich, Leicester, Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Wolves

The four relegation threatened clubs are all small cities. Given the domination of Liverpool, in many ways so too are Everton. That would include Coventry. Those bucking the trend have all had substantial inward investment.

The trick is substantial inward investment and a large, uncontested catchment area, preferably in London. Incidentally, have you noticed the rise of Leyton Orient in a part of London where there is only one other club + American owners
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Given that it is all about money, here is one way of looking at it

London: (7) Arsenal, Brentford, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Spurs, West Ham
Large Cities: (6) Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle
Small Cities: (7) Bournemouth, Brighton, Ipswich, Leicester, Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Wolves

The four relegation threatened clubs are all small cities. Given the domination of Liverpool, in many ways so too are Everton. That would include Coventry. Those bucking the trend have all had substantial inward investment.

The trick is substantial inward investment and a large, uncontested catchment area, preferably in London. Incidentally, have you noticed the rise of Leyton Orient in a part of London where there is only one other club + American owners

Is Newcastle a big city?
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Brentford only spent around £30 million on 4 players the first year after promotion, so it can be done.

They already had Raya, Pinnock, Norgaard, Janelt, Mbuemo, and Toney in their squad though. Crazy good squad-building in the Championship

Brentfords owner is owed £104m and they lost £8m last season and have an overdraft of £30 million
 

mmttww

Well-Known Member
Brentfords owner is owed £104m and they lost £8m last season and have an overdraft of £30 million

tbf if that includes costs related to the new ground - assuming the club owns it and not him directly - that's not a terrible spot for a club with their income. Also have a wages:turnover ratio around 60% which is about middle of the pack for the EPL.
 

mmttww

Well-Known Member
...will we possibly be found out?

We're nowhere near as solid as we were in 22/23 based on several recent games so I'd rather us switch back to a more assertive, controlled way of playing before the luck runs out.

I don't see us getting 7-8 wins from thirteen playing like we did vs. Sheff Weds so if we want to push for the top six - and we should from here - I'd hope to see us set up differently for Preston.
 

Hincha

Well-Known Member
Brentfords owner is owed £104m and they lost £8m last season and have an overdraft of £30 million

Think that just dispels the myth that getting to the Premier League makes you a profitable business.

Every team in the league is still losing money, even the more measured ones.
 

blunted

Well-Known Member
Have you ever met anyone from Newcastle who lives elsewhere and is not a Newcastle fan? Even at Art College in the 70s, when football was frowned upon in arty circles, all the lads from Newcastle were supporters. Same for Sunderland. It's in the blood up there.
Loads of Newcastle fans in Keresley village back in the day when they came down to work at the pit.
 

steve cooper

Well-Known Member
Probably quite similar in style/quality to what we're seeing at the moment, the difference being of course that we had Vik and Hamer to conjure up absolute quality out of nothing - which we don't really have currently (certainly not on their level anyway).
We didn't lose over the 120 minutes and only conceded 1 goal so there was lots of opportunity for either vik or Gus to conjure up some absolute quality out of nothing. I accept we were unlucky to Gus went off injured.
 

HuckerbyDublinWhelan

Well-Known Member
We didn't lose over the 120 minutes and only conceded 1 goal so there was lots of opportunity for either vik or Gus to conjure up some absolute quality out of nothing. I accept we were unlucky to Gus went off injured.
And I’ll die on the hill that if Gus didn’t go off the pitch we win in 90 mins. He was starting to become more influential as the game was going on
 

CovveeBreak

Well-Known Member
On one hand I just don't think we've hit a level that gives me confidence in doing a job over a Burnley, Sunderland etc right now...

...but on the other, 9 wins in 10 is absolutely insane form. Grinding out results.

...but also feel like we played a) a bunch of teams hitting patches of poor form, and b) just a bunch of generally poor teams.

...but also did all of this without most of our star players.

.So basically I don't have a clue whats gonna happen 😂
 

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
Bump.....
Poor for large parts of the game- but we keep managing to get results!!

Started off struggling as they set up to stop Grimes getting on the ball.
Got on top of it and played some nice stuff, Saka was superb, got 2 goals, denied a blatant penalty and were in control

Then shot ourselves in the foot massively 2nd half though if EMC stays on I don't think that happens.

But alls well that ends well, magic stuff from Bobby Thomas.
 

shepardo01

Well-Known Member
We are playing well but we are slipping back into old habits of conceding soft goals while playing 4ATB. This form isn’t going to last forever.
I don't really think we are playing well. Can't argue with results though - and I'd take "shitting" our way up all day long.
We will come unstuck against Sunderland/Burnley/Sheffield United if we don't up our game.
Hopefully we have it in us - because if we do finish in the top six, we'll have to beat a couple of those in the play-offs!
 

wingy

Well-Known Member
I don't really think we are playing well. Can't argue with results though - and I'd take "shitting" our way up all day long.
We will come unstuck against Sunderland/Burnley/Sheffield United if we don't up our game.
Hopefully we have it in us - because if we do finish in the top six, we'll have to beat a couple of those in the play-offs!
I think there's some saving ourselves for that,at least I hope it's that.
 

KenilworthSkyBlue

Well-Known Member
We are playing well but we are slipping back into old habits of conceding soft goals while playing 4ATB. This form isn’t going to last forever.

Yep, you physically can't do that against the better sides in the division. Stoke and Oxford have really struggled in front of goal recently yet we've shipped two goals a piece against both.

The run we're on is brilliant and I don't want to take anything away from it but we 100% need to cut out conceding soft goals otherwise it'll cost us in the tougher games.
 

Winny the Bish

Well-Known Member
I don't really think we are playing well. Can't argue with results though - and I'd take "shitting" our way up all day long.
We will come unstuck against Sunderland/Burnley/Sheffield United if we don't up our game.
Hopefully we have it in us - because if we do finish in the top six, we'll have to beat a couple of those in the play-offs!
Completely agree. We haven't "dominated" many of our opponents on this run. Stoke are one of the worst form teams in the division and they were cutting us open at will at times.

Obviously this run is amazing and I'm loving it, but it definitely doesn't feel like our performances are consistent with the belief that we're one of the best teams in the league.
 

AOM

Well-Known Member
We are playing well but we are slipping back into old habits of conceding soft goals while playing 4ATB. This form isn’t going to last forever.

Yeah a couple of times today one pass was enough to completely split apart our defenders, and think we might have been punished by a more efficient team.

Counted a few times the ball was slipped through to their number 9 who could have been through but luckily looked really slow and allowed a CB or MVE to get back and get a tackle in
 

TomRad85

Well-Known Member
Just for balance, if there is VAR then 3 of the last 5 goals we conceded are wiped off. (Preston offside, Oxford first Kitching blatantly fouled, Stoke second offside.) Also we should have had a pen today and probably the keeper off too. The officials in this league are fucking munting and unfortunately a great advert for pro-VAR folks. I'm generally against it, but fuck me, its getting harder.
 

Shannerz

Well-Known Member
Just for balance, if there is VAR then 3 of the last 5 goals we conceded are wiped off. (Preston offside, Oxford first Kitching blatantly fouled, Stoke second offside.) Also we should have had a pen today and probably the keeper off too. The officials in this league are fucking munting and unfortunately a great advert for pro-VAR folks. I'm generally against it, but fuck me, its getting harder.
Keeper wouldn't have been sent off. If it's a genuine attempt to go for the ball, you don't get a red and a penalty together.
 

TomRad85

Well-Known Member
Keeper wouldn't have been sent off. If it's a genuine attempt to go for the ball, you don't get a red and a penalty together.
Whatever, the rest stands. People can say they are soft but they simply shouldn't stand.
 

Skybluedownunder

Well-Known Member
What’s interesting is that our top scorer has only played half the amount of games as everybody else and nobody has stepped up to the plate to be the leading goalscorer but we are clearly getting enough goals to win games as we’ve won 9 of the last 10 and they are just coming from other areas of the field

During that time EMC was injured too who’s joint 3rd top scorer.

It’s clearly not pretty but we are grinding out results somehow and I’m all for it.

We are going to need to raise our game when we come to the run of 3 games against the top 4… we won’t be able to scrape through games like we have with Oxford and Stoke

9949fd63ea2656f88d7ed5c1d46d4fe2.png



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SBT

Well-Known Member
Just for balance, if there is VAR then 3 of the last 5 goals we conceded are wiped off. (Preston offside, Oxford first Kitching blatantly fouled, Stoke second offside.) Also we should have had a pen today and probably the keeper off too. The officials in this league are fucking munting and unfortunately a great advert for pro-VAR folks. I'm generally against it, but fuck me, its getting harder.
Why anyone would watch the calibre of Championship refs and think “These people should get more authority to routinely stop the game and dwell on key decisions” is completely beyond me.
 

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