Budget 2018 (1 Viewer)

mrtrench

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And I've explained why it's a good idea.

We're never going to agree on this I suspect, c'est la vie :) One day Keynes may come back into fashion... and if only (in my view) we'd taken the Keynesian approach in the 1930s...

Keynes went out of fashion because of the impact on unemployment.

In theory, if the country could afford it, I'd agree with you. But if the cost of realising the benefit exceeds the benefit itself then it's no longer a good thing, surely?
 

Captain Dart

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Shame page since has been deleted.
 
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mrtrench

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That's all correct from my understanding. It's a pity they didn't pick up on the fact that the rate of interest on the debt would also rise; which IMO blows McDonnell's theories out of the water. So the debt rises and the rate rises, reducing the ability to spend without either increasing taxes again (and at some point the revenue from the increase decreases because fewer people pay it) or creating a vicious circle by borrowing more.

I'm more optimistic today. I read an article in the Times quoting Stephen Kinnock. He pointed out that despite the Tories being a shambles, Corbyn still couldn't win the election. Last time I looked they were neck and neck on about 42%. It could be that this is the maximum that Labour reaches - and certainly people like me will vote Conservative to avoid a Labour government (I don't always vote Conservative) - thus polarising the vote between two parties.
 

NorthernWisdom

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Keynes went out of fashion because of the impact on unemployment.

In theory, if the country could afford it, I'd agree with you. But if the cost of realising the benefit exceeds the benefit itself then it's no longer a good thing, surely?
Keynes went out of fashion because of the rise of monetarism, and of course there was the consequent rise in unemployment that followed...

There are a lot of 'coulds' in your original post. So then we have the fact that, under control of the state, the utilities could indeed pay for themselves. Indeed, surely the question is more *when* they do, rather than *if*?

Indeed, the Factcheck link CD has posted also adds:

They said Labour’s extra spending on infrastructure “could still be consistent with debt falling as a share of national income”.

I'm not even going to bother arguing whether nationalising industries is paid for by government borrowing - that much is obvious, and I'd be a little surprised if he claimed otherwise. I will, howver, always argue that investment in infrastructure is the only way this country will ever progress... as opposed to flogging everything off to deliver a populist (and often election winning) headline about the money in the back pocket of Average Joe for that five year period.
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
Not my understanding on Keynsian economics, from a book I read: "
Keynes went out of fashion because of the rise of monetarism, and of course there was the consequent rise in unemployment that followed...

There are a lot of 'coulds' in your original post. So then we have the fact that, under control of the state, the utilities could indeed pay for themselves. Indeed, surely the question is more *when* they do, rather than *if*?

Indeed, the Factcheck link CD has posted also adds:



I'm not even going to bother arguing whether nationalising industries is paid for by government borrowing - that much is obvious, and I'd be a little surprised if he claimed otherwise. I will, howver, always argue that investment in infrastructure is the only way this country will ever progress... as opposed to flogging everything off to deliver a populist (and often election winning) headline about the money in the back pocket of Average Joe for that five year period.

I disagree with pretending to know things that I do not, so I'll confess that my knowledge of Keynsian economics in history is limited to a book I read - it's a neutrally positioned book just explaining the history of the UK economy. I'll dig it out tomorrow and type in the relevant passage. I'm also a bit uneasy about just posting things that others have written rather than thinking for myself. I'll further research the claims in that book after I've shared the passage.

Of course my post is full of 'coulds', how could it be anything else unless I was claiming to have certain knowledge of the future? I've just presented a logic and if you spot a logic flaw I'll rethink.

McDonnell, when pressed, admitted that issuing bonds was borrowing. But look at the video:

Neil: "You are going to borrow for nationalisation, that's tens of billions more"
McDonnell: "No, no, we would swap bonds for shares."
Neil: "What's a bond?"
McDonnell: "It is borrowing, but..."

He's repeated the same thing many times. Few people understand the mechanics of the financial markets and government borrowing. He's trying to hoodwink people to believe that somehow issuing a bond is different. It isn't; it's exactly how the government borrows.

Yes, investing in infrastructure is important. There is an attitude among some left-leaning people that centrists (as I would term myself) or rather slightly right wingers, don't want the same things: wealth for all; happiness; fairness... I cannot speak for everyone but that's exactly what I want and believe that many in the centrist Conservative party want the same. All that differs is the opinion on how to achieve it.
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
OK, a couple of passages from that book I mentioned. It's called "Understanding the UK Economy" by Peter Curwen. This is from the second edition. First a critique on borrowing during hardship and paying back whilst in growth:

"In fairness to Keynes, it should be said that his view of the world was one in which a small group of public-spirited individuals would operate economic policy with wisdom, discretion and foresight... debt was perfectly sensible so long as there was an intention to repay... But spending other people's money proved to be more enjoyable than spending one's own, especially as it helped to keep politicians in elected office... Politicians in office all agreed that debt ought to be repaid, but they could not see any political advantage in doing so, especially as the interest payments might fall during another political party's period in office".

This of course is exactly what Brown did. He ignored Keynes during growth and did not pay back debt - instead he increased it - both through issuing more gilts and also by PFI initiatives. Then when the shit hit the fan, Brown and Balls remembered Keynes and I recall Balls mentioning that we should now spend more and quoting Keynes. Keynes did not say borrow during growth and borrow during recession. He said borrow during recession and pay it back during growth.
 

mrtrench

Well-Known Member
I got it wrong. It's inflation and unemployment that caused the rethink on Keynes (stagflation):

"By the end of the 1960s... the rate of inflation began to rise sharply, and to register a value well above what had been predicted on the basis of the Phillips Curve. At first the authorities treated this as an aberration... but when unemployment was allowed to rise slightly to rein back inflation, it did not have the desired effect and a new phenomenon appeared known as stagflation. This needed to be explained within the context of the Keynsian model, but the model was found wanting. After 25 years its Achilles heel had been exposed... into the vacuum created by the model stepped the monearist revolution.

I've shown with ellipses where I have cut text. I've done that to avoid typing to much and show you the relevant bits - NOT to deceive or play tricks. You can pick up a copy of this book (4th edition - more recent) for 1p on Amazon.

www.amazon.co.uk/Understanding-Economy-Palgrave-Texts-Economics/dp/0333685253/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1511701992&sr=8-1&keywords=understanding+the+UK+economy+curwen
 

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