Going to play devils advocate a little......
New lease cost is going to depend if the Casino lease is actually linked to footfall or not and whether or not it is index linked to the previous lease cost. Rents in the city have not gone down since G Casino took over the site.
If football is not the be all and end all for the casino then would the rent have had to be discounted?
The core business is not entertaining football fans 23 times a year. Look at the prize money for the Goliath event it should make you think about what it is the Casino is making to be able to guarantee that £1m prize money over 2 weeks of poker play. That is where the Casino focus is and has to be - its core business. Not having CCFC at the Ricoh may allow G Casino to put on more, but perhaps smaller, events throughout the year. It may not of course
"But there is the lost income/profits that must be hurting the casino because CCFC are not there". Ok yes there is an effect. Personally do not buy in to the figures being bandied around on this site, i think some of the estimates are on the high side and ignore the associated costs. What follows are pure guesses too..... based on an estimated 800 fans using the Casino on each match day.
Drinks (served between 2 hours before and two hours after a match)
Say 800 people spend on average £15 on 3 pints before and after the game that is £12000 gross revenue take out the VAT and it is a net £10000
Cost of sales (cost of the product) say 35% that is gross profit £6500. Less the cost of staff wages and overheads in that time period say £500 in total
Net profit on drinks £6000 per match (my own feel is that this is still on the high side)
Food (served between 2 hours before and two hours after a match)
Say 50% of the fans (400 covers?) consume food at an average cost of £15 that is £6000. Less VAT that is a net £5000
Cost of sales (cost of product) say 30% is £1500 which leaves gross profit £3500. Deduct wages and overheads from that say £500
That leaves net profit £3000 per match (probably over states it are they capable of serving 400 meals in that time is there the demand for it)
Gambling (two hours before and 2 hours after a match)
Say on average 40% of the fans bet either on the tables or the slots Say 320 fans
I have seen some high numbers given as the average spend of all fans in the casino but lets say each of the 320 fans spends £50. That is a spend of £16000. (personally think that is still too high but i could easily be wrong)
Say 20% of that is on the slots £3200 average pay out 50% of that so net take £1600
that leaves 80% spent on tables etc. £12800 where statistically you have a 1 in 37 chance of winning but say average winnings is £2000 that is a net take for the Casino £10800
However there are costs. Gaming duty i would think is at least 30% for that site so 16000 x 30% = 4800 to be deducted. Then there are wages and overheads say £500. Net take £5500
Net profit from the gambling £7100 (5500+1600)
That leaves net profits to the Casino per match at around £16100 or over 23 matches £370300 missed out on (still cant help thinking that over states the case). Yes it has an effect but i do not think it makes or breaks the Casino. But could it open up other opportunities? It may or may not do that of course.
So are the Casino really hurting to the degree put forward by some? would the rent have come down? and would wasps be hurting because of it? Perhaps, but we can not assume it to be the case. The Casino would certainly have assessed all this before renewal and would have been aware that CCFC might not or would not be there. They would also have assessed the lost income and opportunities on their core income by closing and not renewing the lease. Wasps know that
ps - i wouldn't read too much into the bond price it doesn't necessarily reflect the wasps financial position. Most bond prices have dropped in the last few days on the basis of recession worries