CCFC Promotion, computer prediction (2 Viewers)

[Astute]

Again - I like them, they’re good solid young players. But in the business end we’re competing against West Brom, Norwich and Watford who have bigger depth due to the resources. Then you’ve got Milwall who seem to be a very hard working team. That’s all competing for one spot - given Blackburn and Luton are somewhat out of our reach with 11games to go.

put it this way - with the clubs we’re competing with, where would Eccles and Howley fit in?

Eccles would fit in exactly where he fits in now and wouldn't be worried next time I see Howley on it again either when needed. Will get better with play time as well.

 

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[steve cooper]

If you’d have read my entire points youd realise you’ve literally said what I have.

we’re competing against Watford, Norwich and West Brom for 1 spot. Our depth compared to them is woeful.

I do not think we will get top 6 because our squad depth just isn’t there. The 3 teams mentioned could absorb losses of O’Hare, Sheaf and Palmer because they have similar quality players in reserve. We have youth kids who realistically should be left to develop

We're not though are we?
We are 8 points behind Middlesboro but we play them.
We are 6 points behind Blackburn but we play them. We currently have a better goal difference than Blackburn.
Middlesbrough (3rd) also have to play Burnley, Norwich, and Luton.
Blackburn (4th) also have to play Norwich, Burnley, Luton, and Millwall, and are still in the FA cup.
Luton (5th) have to play Sheff U, Sunderland, Watford, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Blackburn.
It's highly unlikely we could catch Middlesbrough at this stage, but in a few games time it could look so different.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

We're not though are we?
We are 8 points behind Middlesboro but we play them.
We are 6 points behind Blackburn but we play them. We currently have a better goal difference than Blackburn.
Middlesbrough (3rd) also have to play Burnley, Norwich, and Luton.
Blackburn (4th) also have to play Norwich, Burnley, Luton, and Millwall, and are still in the FA cup.
Luton (5th) have to play Sheff U, Sunderland, Watford, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Blackburn.
It's highly unlikely we could catch Middlesbrough at this stage, but in a few games time it could look so different.

With 11 games to go a 6 point head start is a lot. I’d be surprised if we catch Blackburn ( who are in good form) we will need to beat them to help of course.

Luton also in good form. Teams at the top generally win games. If there was 21 games to go I’d bring them in

of course like you said it’s not out of the question. If we say 75 points is the play off mark, can you not see Blackburn picking up 17 from 33 and Luton 18 from 33.

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Bet Victor: 16/1 for Coventry promotion.

We’ll probably fall short, but get on it anyway.

20/1 bet365

 

[Offhegoes]

The International break after the Blackpool game could be handy for us. I would think that Allen and possibly Palmer may then be back for the remaining games starting April 1st. If we suffer no more 'big' injuries then and with the exception of O'Hare and Tavarres we're in good shape.

 

[steve cooper]

With 11 games to go a 6 point head start is a lot. I’d be surprised if we catch Blackburn ( who are in good form) we will need to beat them to help of course.

Luton also in good form. Teams at the top generally win games. If there was 21 games to go I’d bring them in

of course like you said it’s not out of the question. If we say 75 points is the play off mark, can you not see Blackburn picking up 17 from 33 and Luton 18 from 33.

Yes, we would definitely need to beat Blackburn, and their FA cup run could yet impact their promotion hopes.
Luton's run-in looks tricky and considering end of season games generally throw up some surprises, they are not there yet. On top of playing 6 teams with promotion hopes they also have to play Blackpool and Rotherham who are fighting to avoid relegation.

 

[jordan210]

 

[Robinshio]

7 points from the next 3 and then you can start to believe

we would then need 7 points from the following 5 games to leave us with a fighting chance going into the last 3
Reading and Blues at home followed by Middlesbrough away - which although the toughest, could be a 1 off cup final

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

Yes, we would definitely need to beat Blackburn, and their FA cup run could yet impact their promotion hopes.
Luton's run-in looks tricky and considering end of season games generally throw up some surprises, they are not there yet. On top of playing 6 teams with promotion hopes they also have to play Blackpool and Rotherham who are fighting to avoid relegation.

You could argue then our next 5 games after Hull are just as tricky considering it’s Stoke, Wigan, Blackpool, Swansea and Watford - that would be 3 teams fighting relegation and 1 who are our play off rivals - if you assume we’d beat The 3 relegation threatened teams - you’ve got to assume they will.

gaining 6 points on a top 6 team with 11 games left wouldn’t be easy with O’Hare and Palmer. Let alone with what we’ve got.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

7 points from the next 3 and then you can start to believe

we would then need 7 points from the following 5 games to leave us with a fighting chance going into the last 3
Reading and Blues at home followed by Middlesbrough away - which although the toughest, could be a 1 off cup final

And if Middlesbrough are in the play offs may rest players as we’d likely be their opponent.

we definitely need as you say 10 points from Hull, Wigan, Blackpool, Stoke

we’d also need to take at least 4 points from Blackburn and Watford as they’re potential play off rivals

 

[steve cooper]

You could argue then our next 5 games after Hull are just as tricky considering it’s Stoke, Wigan, Blackpool, Swansea and Watford - that would be 3 teams fighting relegation and 1 who are our play off rivals - if you assume we’d beat The 3 relegation threatened teams - you’ve got to assume they will.

gaining 6 points on a top 6 team with 11 games left wouldn’t be easy with O’Hare and Palmer. Let alone with what we’ve got.

Absolutely you could argue that.. There are no easy games which is my point. I'm not saying we will catch any team, I'm just saying we could.

 

[shmmeee]

Let’s get the next three out the way and see where we are. Lots of questions after the break in terms of who is fit and how we come back after a break, not to mention for of other teams that could pull them into safety/danger. I think six points is possible, if not likely just because in this league anyone can beat anyone. Still think we need 20 pts to even stand a chance of sneaking into sixth which would be excellent form in its own right.

 

[HuckerbyDublinWhelan]

Absolutely you could argue that.. There are no easy games which is my point. I'm not saying we will catch any team, I'm just saying we could.

And I wasn’t say we won’t - I’m just being realistic stating that given our current squad depth compared to the rest of our rivals we’re massively lagging and therefore it is highly unlikely.

would happily admit i was wrong (much as I did when I called for Robins to go and be replaced by Ryan Lowe in season 1) if we do get into the play offs

 

[Johhny Blue]

We have a good starting 11, a very good plan A. The rest of the league have enough players to have a plan B & C.

we are unlucky in terms of losing our AMs but we just don’t have the depth. Most teams wouldn’t have to dip into the Howleys of their squad to become starting 11 players for the last 10 games.

again - they’re good young players, but being at the stage to rely on them is too much to expect from them

We do have a plan B:
When we score it’s “EVERYONE BACK”

 

[Johhny Blue]

Bet Victor: 16/1 for Coventry promotion.

We’ll probably fall short, but get on it anyway.

Does it state that it has to be this season?

 

[tomreagan84]

Does it state that it has to be this season?

Reading the small print; apparently any period of existence within the space-time contium qualifies.

Sir Earnie can get you better odds though.

 

[tomreagan84]

Reading the small print; apparently any period of existence within the space-time contium qualifies.

Sir Earnie can get you better odds though.

“Continuum” was spelt like that in the small print.

Bloody Bet Victor!

 

[SIR ERNIE]

Sir Earnie can get you better odds though.

You're welcome.

 

[rob9872]

The International break after the Blackpool game could be handy for us. I would think that Allen and possibly Palmer may then be back for the remaining games starting April 1st. If we suffer no more 'big' injuries then and with the exception of O'Hare and Tavarres we're in good shape.

Forget those two.