Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (174 Viewers)

[Grendel]

The problem is they think it’s misleading because it would look totally different on a linear scale (which is acknowledged in the tweet thread) but seemingly don’t understand that what it’s really showing is the gradient of an exponential function in way that doesn’t involve having to explain differentiation.


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He won’t understand that. What if you set the chart at 50 deaths and over - what would it show you then?

If you then had only 2 countries on it and they were the uk and Italy which trend would be higher and what question would you then ask?

 

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[David O'Day]

Read the twitter thread.

Don't as the bloke doesn't actually justify using a logarithmic scale for a linear number.

He was always going to be in damned if he does, damned if he doesn't situation.

Like Sunak getting ridiculed for a £330B bail out, but Macron getting arse kissed for €300Bn (£277Bn approx)

Macrons package was better targeted and helped people rather than just businesses

 

[PVA]

No actually you haven’t - it actually shows to me our death rate is much lower than most countries - is that what it shows you?

Who said anything about death rate? It's not showing death rate, its showing cumulative deaths.

I guess that explains your confusion. At least we've gotten to the bottom of it.

 

[cc84cov]

Do people actually believe the numbers countries including the UK are putting out ?

I don’t for one second believe their numbers I think it’s a lot more than their saying 100% they haven’t got it under control & I doubt they will be able to anytime soon

 

[ccfc92]

To be frank, it was just an updated version of me saying "Project Fear" to everybody about Brexit.

It that an American boot camp?

 

[PVA]

Do people actually believe the numbers countries including the UK are putting out ?

I don’t for one second believe their numbers I think it’s a lot more than their saying 100% they haven’t got it under control & I doubt they will be able to anytime soon

I don't believe any of the cases numbers as it's almost impossible to measure, and in the UK we are only testing people who end up in hospital.

You'd like to think the deaths figures are accurate (apart from the likes of China)

 

[Grendel]

Who said anything about death rate? It's not showing death rate, its showing cumulative deaths.

I guess that explains your confusion. At least we've gotten to the bottom of it.

No I’m saying in an interview you’d ask the death rates and will then request seeing the data of cases and then what would you expect to see?

 

[Grendel]

I don't believe any of the cases numbers as it's almost impossible to measure, and in the UK we are only testing people who end up in hospital.

You'd like to think the deaths figures are accurate (apart from the likes of China)

Hilarious

 

[PVA]

Hilarious

Is it? What's so funny?

 

[shmmeee]

Do people actually believe the numbers countries including the UK are putting out ?

I don’t for one second believe their numbers I think it’s a lot more than their saying 100% they haven’t got it under control & I doubt they will be able to anytime soon

Yes? It’s not the X-Files. I doubt China’s numbers but any western democracy should be fine. All deaths are recorded and there’s not much ability to cover up causes en masse. Case numbers depend on testing strategy so not sure they’re much use mind.

Edit: beaten by PVA

 

[Grendel]

Is it? What's so funny?

So for a graph to accurate when comparing different sources does the data sourcing need to have homogenous methods of calculation?

 

[shmmeee]

No I’m saying in an interview you’d ask the death rates and will then request seeing the data of cases and then what would you expect to see?

Giving cc4l a run for his money on unintelligible nonsense now. Just take the loss mate.

 

[PVA]

So for a graph to accurate when comparing different sources does the data sourcing need to have homogenous methods of calculation?

Oh dear oh dear.

Just give it up mate.

The chart is deaths, not cases. I just said the figures for deaths are all correct (with the possible exception of China)

 

[Grendel]

Giving cc4l a run for his money on unintelligible nonsense now. Just take the loss mate.

With respect you were the guy who put up that tax research bollocks in the election and couldn’t see why it was flawed

Dom had to even correct you on here as you could not understand the Italian trend

What I’m trying to get and and what I want someone to actually answer is if you believe the data what is this telling you?

 

[Otis]

To be fair to Boris I think he has handling it well so far.

He reminds me of the cymbal crashing Duracell monkey.

 

[Grendel]

Oh dear oh dear.

Just give it up mate.

The chart is deaths, not cases. I just said the figures for deaths are all correct (with the possible exception of China)

Are they? That’s interesting as the original death figure of swine flu was quoted at 18,000 and then on further analysis due to data irregularities was estimated at 400,000 - no matter

But isnt this the same guy whose other charts showed cases? Weren’t you initially Also bigging those up?

Im still not being told by anyone what this tells you

 

[cc84cov]

Giving cc4l a run for his money on unintelligible nonsense now. Just take the loss mate.

You believing the government shows who’s who when it comes to unintelligible nonsense mate

 

[Ring Of Steel]

He's made his mind up and is sticking with it, because it completely goes against what he, and others, were arguing so strongly about last week.

This is true. Last week it was all about piping down & listening to the experts. Now that everything has changed and we have realised the sheer folly of trying to have a scientific & experimental approach that flies in the face of everything everyone in the world knows, and its turned out they used the wrong data in the first place, its a different story.

 

[PVA]

Are they? That’s interesting as the original death figure of swine flu was quoted at 18,000 and then on further analysis due to data irregularities was estimated at 400,000 - no matter

But isnt this the same guy whose other charts showed cases? Weren’t you initially Also bigging those up?

Im still not being told by anyone what this tells you

No, I've only ever posted the deaths charts (he does have cases charts, but I have not posted them.)

If you've got confused between deaths and cases that's OK you can just apologise now.

The chart shows that we have more deaths at this stage (5 days after the first 10 deaths) than Italy.

You can try and dispute that all you like, and moan about how the chart scale is wrong or whatever, but that is an irrefutable fact, in black and white on the chart.

 

[Magwitch]

To be fair to Boris I think he has handling it well so far.

Totally disagree, and I’m not being political, which is why yesterday he was like a rabbit caught in the headlights at his conference, suddenly throwing money galore at this virus the Government goofed big time with their stupid herd ideas, schools should have been closed two weeks ago and movement restrictions implemented, kids are the biggest carriers leaving this virus all over the place, there are people of all age groups now going down with this, my friends nephew aged 41, no underlying issues is very ill with it.
Things are coming to light all the time, there is now a thought that certain blood groups are more likely to get a more complicated version.
Back to Boris/Tories their dithering will be costly and will follow them for a long time.

 

[cc84cov]

111 pages of people arguing with Grendel

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Totally disagree, and I’m not being political, which is why yesterday he was like a rabbit caught in the traffic lights at his conference, suddenly throwing money galore at this virus the Government goofed big time with their stupid herd ideas, schools should have been closed two weeks ago and movement restrictions implemented, kids are the biggest carriers leaving this virus all over the place, there are people of all age groups now going down with this, my friends nephew ages 41, no underlying issues is very ill with it.
Things are coming to light all the time, there is now a thought that certain blood groups are more likely to get a more complicated version.
Back to Boris/Tories their dithering will be costly and will follow them for a long time for ages.

I don't watch his press conferences, you'd get more sense on here and thats really fucking saying something.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

111 pages of people arguing with Grendel

And you know he absolutely loves it

 

[GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee]

Just imagine if a thread of more than 5 pages existed that wasn't 90% made up of Grendel arguing with people.

 

[CCFCSteve]

This is true. Last week it was all about piping down & listening to the experts. Now that everything has changed and we have realised the sheer folly of trying to have a scientific & experimental approach that flies in the face of everything everyone in the world knows, and its turned out they used the wrong data in the first place, its a different story.

Still need the modelling and scientific experts to lead the way on this though. It was by following the modelling that enabled us and other countries, to accelerate/escalate the measures

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Still need the modelling and scientific experts to lead the way on this though. It was by following the modelling that enabled us and other countries, to accelerate/escalate the measures

Apart from they didn't waste days on theories that were impossible to follow through on.

 

[cc84cov]

And you know he absolutely loves it

I’m starting to think he’s employed to do this lol

 

[Ring Of Steel]

I’m starting to think he’s employed to do this lol

He's the Katie Hopkins of SBT

 

[cc84cov]

He's the Katie Hopkins of SBT

Tbh we need it to keep the forum healthy its a positive to have many different views weather all agree or not long live SBT

 

[cc84cov]

This is worse than pre season my life is empty without football lol

 

[Nick]

Totally disagree, and I’m not being political, which is why yesterday he was like a rabbit caught in the headlights at his conference, suddenly throwing money galore at this virus the Government goofed big time with their stupid herd ideas, schools should have been closed two weeks ago and movement restrictions implemented, kids are the biggest carriers leaving this virus all over the place, there are people of all age groups now going down with this, my friends nephew aged 41, no underlying issues is very ill with it.
Things are coming to light all the time, there is now a thought that certain blood groups are more likely to get a more complicated version.
Back to Boris/Tories their dithering will be costly and will follow them for a long time.

I was on about him being a top shagger.

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Tbh we need it to keep the forum healthy its a positive to have many different views weather all agree or not long live SBT

I'd like this twice if I could

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Our office has just shut at 1pm for the foreseeable future. Voluntary redundancy letters expected 23/4 so don’t think I’ll work there again

 

[Grendel]

No, I've only ever posted the deaths charts (he does have cases charts, but I have not posted them.)

If you've got confused between deaths and cases that's OK you can just apologise now.

The chart shows that we have more deaths at this stage (5 to days after the first 10 deaths) than Italy.

You can try and dispute that all you like, and moan about how the chart scale is wrong or whatever, but that is an irrefutable fact, in black and white on the chart.

I haven’t got mixed up. He originally posted infection rates charts and used the same graph to try and create a comment - he’s trying to get bites - and it’s definitely been on this thread

The issues are:

- 10 is not an arbitrary number - he’s picked it as the next day the uk trend doubled. So why 10? Is that significant? No

- no one would compare a data set of countries whose trying to draw any sensible conclusions on those with small samples to
Large

- of course the percentage of deaths is hugely significant to cases. If a country had 22 cases and 11 died but only one after the 10 for 3 days it below the curve

The minute you out this up I said that Germany would show a huge spike at the start as it’s off a low base which is exactly what’s happened yet Germany has the lowest rate of deaths of any country on here - well if that’s not relevant to any analysis then i beg to differ

The scaling IS deliberate as it wants to create a curve that suggests we will be ahead of Italy at the point they are now. That’s beyond debate and gives you an insight into this guys thought processes

The death rate has to be relevant to infection - the official death rates in Italy are I think around 3 times higher than the uk - so on that basis this guys original trend graph is wrong (well they are both wrong as they are not actually trend graphs)

There are other factors as well such as the fact most die after 10 days of infection

Tbe comment on Italy aged population is again irrelevant

It’s you that’s putting this graph up not me. Why? What’s it telling you? It’s telling me nothing

 

[Magwitch]

I was on about him being a top shagger.

Well I believe he is fucked