Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (219 Viewers)

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Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
You wouldn’t expect such a large drop from vaccines surely? I’d have thought you’d see the effects gradually as we started vaccinating gradually and immunity builds gradually.

Might just be an outlier. Wait for three straight days maybe.
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It will reflect the drop in cases as well as protective effects of vaccination. As Whitty said this is going to be a slow decline
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
900 deaths today are a result of cases 3-4 weeks ago. I suspect this is a reporting quirk more than anything. The first place you would expect to see the impact of vaccines is on hospital admission / ICU admission I think.
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
It will reflect the drop in cases as well as protective effects of vaccination. As Whitty said this is going to be a slow decline
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Yeah, you, shmmeee and Fernando are right, the deaths will be a slow decline unfortunately but hopefully heading in the right direction.

What will be interesting is whether the findings that the AZ vaccine (hopefully) reduces tranissibility will alter the modelling. I think the ones Witty was referring to assume the vaccines have no impact on transmissibility.

Assuming the vaccines’ efficacies remain strong (ie no issues with new variants) in conjunction with reduced transmissibility, we could start seeing a real positive impact on case numbers sooner than currently forecast. Let’s hope so anyway

ps for those interested, 469k vaccines today. 20k new cases (but this is based on 800k tests, which is significantly higher than the last couple of day’s so hopefully reflects a continued declining trend)
 
David O'Day

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
900 deaths today are a result of cases 3-4 weeks ago. I suspect this is a reporting quirk more than anything. The first place you would expect to see the impact of vaccines is on hospital admission / ICU admission I think.
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Yeah you would definitely expect to see admissions and icu admission drop first withteh vaccines.

A good measure is looking at the by day of death figuresit's better than the reporting day figures but has a data lag.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard
coronavirus.data.gov.uk coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Figures do look we are still likely to be seeing 1000 deaths a day
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Yeah, you, shmmeee and Fernando are right, the deaths will be a slow decline unfortunately but hopefully heading in the right direction.

What will be interesting is whether the findings that the AZ vaccine (hopefully) reduces tranissibility will alter the modelling. I think the ones Witty was referring to assume the vaccines have no impact on transmissibility.

Assuming the vaccines’ efficacies remain strong (ie no issues with new variants) in conjunction with reduced transmissibility, we could start seeing a real positive impact on case numbers sooner than currently forecast. Let’s hope so anyway

ps for those interested, 469k vaccines today. 20k new cases (but this is based on 800k tests, which is significantly higher than the last couple of day’s so hopefully reflects a continued declining trend)
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The Warwick study puts transmissibility as one of 3 big unknowns that would make a change to the modelling. Another being impact on serious illness
 
Saddlebrains

Saddlebrains

Well-Known Member
I rang my doctors today (ongoing shoulder issue that wont get better), receptionist told me 'oh i can see you're asthmatic, we will be calling you in 3 or 4 weeks for your covid jab'

Im 30.


Wasn't expecting it for a good while yet, but its good to see that things so far are going swimmingly
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
fernandopartridge said:
900 deaths today are a result of cases 3-4 weeks ago. I suspect this is a reporting quirk more than anything. The first place you would expect to see the impact of vaccines is on hospital admission / ICU admission I think.
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Didn’t someone say the makeup of patients in ICU is already changing with more younger ones?
 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
Didn’t someone say the makeup of patients in ICU is already changing with more younger ones?
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Think I said that would hopefully be the case as older groups get vaccinated (percentage of younger people of total in ICU should increase - which bizarrely would be positive as showing signs vaccines are working). It might have started to already but guessing a bit soon to tell.

The biggest bit of positive news we can all hope for in the short term is proof that AZ vaccine does work as well for over 65s. all scientists have suggested it should do but it will put to bed some of the concerns over lack of data raised by other nations
 
Brylowes

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
robbiekeane said:
Not related to any recent posts but, I was reading something earlier and I worry quite a lot about the gap between the rich and the poor widening massively after this whole pandemic.

Those with jobs for big companies that are able to work remotely continue to do so, and without the usual places to splash money away (pubs, bars, restaurants etc) they are probably saving a good chunk of change more (I know I am).

Those lucky enough to get 80% of their full time salary on furlough will be okay, but there are quite a lot who fall through the gaps. Zero hour contracts, or lower minimum hour contracts, those newly self employed, new business owners with loans and mortgages etc, must be fucked.

What can we do to help?
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Sadly this is always the way isn’t it.
When it rains the poor get the wettest, when the sun shines the poor get burnt.
The 2008 banking crisis wholly caused by the exploits and insatiable greed of a privileged few will be being paid off by the poorest members of society for decades to come, this latest crisis will compound that.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Brylowes said:
Sadly this is always the way isn’t it.
When it rains the poor get the wettest, when the sun shines the poor get burnt.
The 2008 banking crisis wholly caused by the exploits and insatiable greed of a privileged few will be being paid off by the poorest members of society for decades to come, this latest crisis will compound that.
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Look what's been happening in the US. Stock market soars, Bezos adds tens of billions to his wealth while tens of millions lose their jobs and have to fight to get paltry one off payments while paying for their COVID tests.
 
robbiekeane

robbiekeane

Well-Known Member
Brylowes said:
Sadly this is always the way isn’t it.
When it rains the poor get the wettest, when the sun shines the poor get burnt.
The 2008 banking crisis wholly caused by the exploits and insatiable greed of a privileged few will be being paid off by the poorest members of society for decades to come, this latest crisis will compound that.
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fernandopartridge said:
Think that had been the case pre vaccination tbh, it's always been the case that most hospital admissions are working aged, just that the most likely deaths are the elderly
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I agree and obviously there's nothing we (on SBT) can do about that unfortunately with all the will in the world. But, what can we do? I know MMJ had a season ticket fund...is there a way we can do even tesco vouchers or something? I feel like there would be lots who would need but might be too proud to say so.
 
Brylowes

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
robbiekeane said:
I agree and obviously there's nothing we (on SBT) can do about that unfortunately with all the will in the world. But, what can we do? I know MMJ had a season ticket fund...is there a way we can do even tesco vouchers or something? I feel like there would be lots who would need but might be too proud to say so.
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The only possible way to change things would be to completely overhaul the system.
And it’s a very cleverly orchestrated system ‘so much so‘ that the people who are always made to pay the price are more than happy to put all their trust and hopes into the hands of those who always make sure it’s them that pay it.
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Brylowes said:
No definitely not, this cancer is global and its growing.
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This disease won't be busted by bullshitters and charlatans, but by those who have dedicated their careers to evidence and academic rigour. That should be a lesson for the world, but it won't be and we'll have climate change causing carnage not long after this (same century) which will also demand scientific innovation as the answer.
 
Brylowes

Brylowes

Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue said:
This disease won't be busted by bullshitters and charlatans, but by those who have dedicated their careers to evidence and academic rigour. That should be a lesson for the world, but it won't be and we'll have climate change causing carnage not long after this (same century) which will also demand scientific innovation as the answer.
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The virus isn’t the cancer I’m referring to, the cancer is the machine/system pulling the strings behind the likes of Trump Bolsonaro Boris and co.
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
James Cleverly talking utter bullshit on the BBC this morning, the brass neck of these wankers.
They actually think that because they've done well on the vaccine we should forget about all their other fuck ups and the death toll - vermin.
 
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