Yeah. Technically they're right, in that a vaccine isn't working as it should. If, however, Covid can start behaving as per the flu (a threat and potential killer to some, OK, but you've got to be fairly unlucky to be finished off by it in any one year) then that is not too bad a result!Aye but if the vaccine nevertheless provides protection against severe disease it isn't a huge problem. I am in no way a denialist but I am finding the recent reporting to be hysterical, particularly in relation to variants and vaccine efficacy.
The way I see it, if we can keep holding it back to not being a huge threat until antivirals are developed, we're probably as good as we're going to get. Naive to expect eradication with vaccines if everybody across the world isn't getting vaccinated, but if we can at least function until it burns itself down to a less malevolant version, that would be fine!There is an argument that higher viral loads would be more conducive to new variants arising. Though I keep saying flu variants arise every year and the annual jabs for that are changed accordingly. They will have big problems with vaccine take up and civil disobedience if they start arguing for lockdowns even after everyone has protection against severe illness.
There is an argument that higher viral loads would be more conducive to new variants arising. Though I keep saying flu variants arise every year and the annual jabs for that are changed accordingly. They will have big problems with vaccine take up and civil disobedience if they start arguing for lockdowns even after everyone has protection against severe illness.
Totally out of my area here, but wouldn’t the higher R number mean we have less time to prep a COVID variant vaccine compared to flu? What’s the lead time from discovery to serious impact on services?
The flu vaccine is actually made pre-emptively. Work is done to predict the mutations that will likely follow in the next cycle, and that's how they get the vaccines ready in time. This could easily be done in COVID's case as it seems to be favouring certain mutations irrespective of which variant it is, and ramping up production capacity would shorten the time further still.
That’s really interesting. Possible stupid question, why can’t we make a vaccine for all the possible main groups of variants and pump people with all of them at once?
That’s really interesting. Possible stupid question, why can’t we make a vaccine for all the possible main groups of variants and pump people with all of them at once?
You guys are so clever I enjoy being educated
I last engaged with mathematical education when someone said 'it's easy just use the Taylor expansion', to which 'I don't know what that is' met with a vacant expression and my vow never to take it again
Is this ever going to fucking end?
According the the BBC nearly 85,000 higher in 2020 than the average of the previous five years.Was just wondering if anyone on this thread had the death figures properly? Getting lost in data.
Was just trying to work out how many more people died last year than against any other year.
According the the BBC nearly 85,000 higher in 2020 than the average of the previous five years.
Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two
Last year saw 697,000 deaths registered in the UK - 14% above what would be expected.www.bbc.co.uk
Swine flu?Anyone else stunned by that excess deaths graph? The shooting up in 2008 that never really went down again?
I mean on an abstract I know economic contraction without support costs lives, but never seen such a stark graphic demonstrating it.
View attachment 18671
Swine flu?
Was still only 20000 here wasn’t itwasn't there a year in recent history where there was a large number of extra flu deaths. I think there may have been a variant of flu that the vaccine didn't protect against very well.
Was still only 20000 here wasn’t it
Swine flu?
Thanks Dave.
Been trying to get to the bottom of it, but it seems like the data is very confusing. The article is weird as well. The death rates are highest since 2008 there, so not sure where the WW2 reference comes from.
Just seen Shmmeee's post as well.
I don't know why there is so much smoke and mirrors around this stuff. The more I google it, the more you get lost in knots. From what I can see, the amount of deaths in 2020 stops being reported before December (again weird), but at that time there was 20,000 less than the year before. This article below looks interesting, but it is giving me a headache after a long day writing:
Fact check: Posts inaccurately compare 2020 deaths in England and Wales with previous years
Social media posts have presented misleading statistics about the death toll in England and Wales as supposed evidence the coronavirus pandemic is not real.www.reuters.com
Just England too
Anyone else stunned by that excess deaths graph? The shooting up in 2008 that never really went down again?
I mean on an abstract I know economic contraction without support costs lives, but never seen such a stark graphic demonstrating it.
View attachment 18671
What smoke and mirrors?
Full dataset for last year is here:https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/pe...dandwales/2021/copyofpublishedweek042021.xlsx
How many people died in 2020?
614,114
Average of 2015-19: 531,129
Is that England and Wales, or UK as a whole?
Sorry, just something doesn't add up here.
Why? 120k covid deaths, many elderly who would probably be expected to die this year anyway.
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