Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Is it not over promising then?
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
Ccfcisparks
Well-Known Member
678 deaths reported today compared to the 1000 figure reported yesterday.
jordan210
Well-Known Member
Best to use week on week numbers. As early week can have back loading from the weekend.
Last Thursday was 915.
Todays number also had 36 from one Trust. As it appears they had not reported for a week or so.
Houchens Head
Fairly well known member from Malvern
Done and dusted! Piece of cake. (That's what I asked for, for being a brave little soldier!) All I got was a lollipop!Getting me jab this afternoon!
"It's just a little prick with a needle."
"It's what the little prick is gonna do with the needle that concerns me!"
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Yeah. Technically they're right, in that a vaccine isn't working as it should. If, however, Covid can start behaving as per the flu (a threat and potential killer to some, OK, but you've got to be fairly unlucky to be finished off by it in any one year) then that is not too bad a result!
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
The way I see it, if we can keep holding it back to not being a huge threat until antivirals are developed, we're probably as good as we're going to get. Naive to expect eradication with vaccines if everybody across the world isn't getting vaccinated, but if we can at least function until it burns itself down to a less malevolant version, that would be fine!
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Totally out of my area here, but wouldn’t the higher R number mean we have less time to prep a COVID variant vaccine compared to flu? What’s the lead time from discovery to serious impact on services?
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The flu vaccine is actually made pre-emptively. Work is done to predict the mutations that will likely follow in the next cycle, and that's how they get the vaccines ready in time. This could easily be done in COVID's case as it seems to be favouring certain mutations irrespective of which variant it is, and ramping up production capacity would shorten the time further still.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
You guys are so clever I enjoy being educated
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
That’s really interesting. Possible stupid question, why can’t we make a vaccine for all the possible main groups of variants and pump people with all of them at once?
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
Interesting thought, but initial thought is could it cause an overactive immune system?
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
This article is old, but explains the science quite well
How the seasonal flu jab is made - BBC News
You would just need genetic data from enough places with outbreaks to make a calculated estimate of which strains would become dominant that year. In theory, with the much more advanced tracking of variants and mutations we have in 2021, we would likely be much more accurate. It should be possible to make a 'combi' jab like you get for the winter flu shot, and maybe even combine COVID and flu jabs into one.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Yet to hear that in a classroom!
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I last engaged with mathematical education when someone said 'it's easy just use the Taylor expansion', to which 'I don't know what that is' met with a vacant expression and my vow never to take it again
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
If I remember rightly it's a 4-4-2 but with the wingers and full backs really hugging the touchlines
Saddlebrains
Well-Known Member
Is this ever going to fucking end? 
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
LOL, I do all those things and all because I loved Maths at school.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Is this ever going to fucking end?
We're vaccinating nearly half a million people a day, we'll get there.
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Was just wondering if anyone on this thread had the death figures properly? Getting lost in data.
Was just trying to work out how many more people died last year than against any other year.
Was just trying to work out how many more people died last year than against any other year.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
According the the BBC nearly 85,000 higher in 2020 than the average of the previous five years.
Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two
Last year saw 697,000 deaths registered in the UK - 14% above what would be expected.
www.bbc.co.uk
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
According the the BBC nearly 85,000 higher in 2020 than the average of the previous five years.
Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two
Last year saw 697,000 deaths registered in the UK - 14% above what would be expected.www.bbc.co.uk
Thanks Dave.
Been trying to get to the bottom of it, but it seems like the data is very confusing. The article is weird as well. The death rates are highest since 2008 there, so not sure where the WW2 reference comes from.
Just seen Shmmeee's post as well.
I don't know why there is so much smoke and mirrors around this stuff. The more I google it, the more you get lost in knots. From what I can see, the amount of deaths in 2020 stops being reported before December (again weird), but at that time there was 20,000 less than the year before. This article below looks interesting, but it is giving me a headache after a long day writing:
Fact check: Posts inaccurately compare 2020 deaths in England and Wales with previous years
Social media posts have presented misleading statistics about the death toll in England and Wales as supposed evidence the coronavirus pandemic is not real.
Swine flu?
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
wasn't there a year in recent history where there was a large number of extra flu deaths. I think there may have been a variant of flu that the vaccine didn't protect against very well.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Was still only 20000 here wasn’t it
Grendel
Well-Known Member
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
Only 392 deaths in the UK
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Thanks Dave.
Been trying to get to the bottom of it, but it seems like the data is very confusing. The article is weird as well. The death rates are highest since 2008 there, so not sure where the WW2 reference comes from.
Just seen Shmmeee's post as well.
I don't know why there is so much smoke and mirrors around this stuff. The more I google it, the more you get lost in knots. From what I can see, the amount of deaths in 2020 stops being reported before December (again weird), but at that time there was 20,000 less than the year before. This article below looks interesting, but it is giving me a headache after a long day writing:
Fact check: Posts inaccurately compare 2020 deaths in England and Wales with previous years
Social media posts have presented misleading statistics about the death toll in England and Wales as supposed evidence the coronavirus pandemic is not real.www.reuters.com
What smoke and mirrors?
Full dataset for last year is here:https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/pe...dandwales/2021/copyofpublishedweek042021.xlsx
I think you’re confusing death rate and excess deaths.
The death rate is how many people per million die each year and has been dropping forever:
So a minor uptick doesn’t seem so bad. But if you just download that spreadsheet and sum the year versus the previous years you’ll see the number of people that represents is huge.
This Sky article explains it:COVID-19: How mortality rates in 2020 compare with past decades and centuries
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Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Just England too
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Saw a chart in the FT the other day, the UK is the only developed economy where real wages have declined whilst GDP has grown
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
How many people died in 2020?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
