Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (112 Viewers)

[torchomatic]

I would like to watch it all again, because I was in love with Carolyn Seymour.

Drop me a PM then, Otis. There has also been nine series of Audio "adventures", so will stick that on there too. Caroline Seymour disappeared after the first TV series, but is in the audio episodes.

I am a bit obsessed with Survivors, still have the original novel too.

 

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[DannyThomas_1981]

It's bollocks to say you have to look at other factors to try and understand why Iran can have a 10% mortality rate ut other places a 0% RATE.

You're fucki g done here mate. You're a weirdo who likes to pretend they are smart on a website. Back to infowars you go

Seems to be a relatively new thing on SBT. Randomly calling people weirdos in an attempt to discredit that person and insult. A technique usually employed by extreme narcissists to discredit others they don't agree with. SBT would be far better without this kind of thing.

As someone else has also pointed out it's amazing also the level of expertise on all topics on here - seems to be no topic that we can't find a resident expert on!

 

[Ricketts]

The death rate has remained constant.

One per person.

 

[Grendel]

Not correct. It is 2/100 infected. Out by a magnitude of 10. The early estimate, following very detailed statistical analysis and models is 2%, so 20 x flu. The same happened with SARS, the WHO gave an early estimate of 3%, but it ended up being nearly 10%. This is because people calculate deaths at a specific point in time against cases that have been identified at that same given point - which is completely flawed because many of those cases are on-going and death can come up to 41 days after the symptoms first appear. In other words, it is very likely to be greater than 2% when the dust settles. All covered in the link above.

It isn’t because the vast majority of cases go unreported

 

[Grendel]

Seems to be a relatively new thing on SBT. Randomly calling people weirdos in an attempt to discredit that person and insult. A technique usually employed by extreme narcissists to discredit others they don't agree with. SBT would be far better without this kind of thing.

As someone else has also pointed out it's amazing also the level of expertise on all topics on here - seems to be no topic that we can't find a resident expert on!

Actually in your case what happens is you never appear until the outcome is known and then gloat you knew the outcome anyway

 

[Badger]

I blame Covkid1968# - it must be named after him

 

[theferret]

It isn’t because the vast majority of cases go unreported

Some cases, but not the vast majority, because if they did the outbreak would be far wider as they would have lost complete control. Most people have been traced. In any case, this is accounted for in the estimates. The current mortality rate of closed cases is 7%, but the projection is 2%.

Anyhow, I sincerely hope that you are right on this. So want to be wrong, and of course, I'm no expert anyway but the sources I'm looking at seem hard to discredit. Hopefully it'll be contained soon enough. My final word before I get accused of being a flat-earther again :woot:

 

[Otis]

Drop me a PM then, Otis. There has also been nine series of Audio "adventures", so will stick that on there too. Caroline Seymour disappeared after the first TV series, but is in the audio episodes.

I am a bit obsessed with Survivors, still have the original novel too.

Cheers, Torch.

 

[torchomatic]

Cheers, Torch.

My absolute pleasure, obviously.

 

[BornSlippySkyBlue]

Some cases, but not the vast majority, because if they did the outbreak would be far wider as they would have lost complete control. Most people have been traced. In any case, this is accounted for in the estimates. The current mortality rate of closed cases is 7%, but the projection is 2%.

Anyhow, I sincerely hope that you are right on this. So want to be wrong, and of course, I'm no expert anyway but the sources I'm looking at seem hard to discredit. Hopefully it'll be contained soon enough. My final word before I get accused of being a flat-earther again :woot:

Hold on, you’re quoting scientific sources — surely the flat-earthers would do the opposite...

 

[David O'Day]

Hold on, you’re quoting scientific sources — surely the flat-earthers would do the opposite...

No he is misrepresenting scientific evidence which us exactly what a flat earther would do

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

 

[theferret]

No he is misrepresenting scientific evidence which us exactly what a flat earther would do

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

Oh come on now David. I had a little pop at you earlier for which I apologise, but I am doing nothing of the sort. I just posted a link to the data, the source of which is mainly the WHO. There was absolutely no misrepresentation at all.

And anyway, everyone knows the Earth is shaped like a Monster Munch.

 

[Liquid Gold]

Oh come on now David. I had a little pop at you earlier for which I apologise, but I am doing nothing of the sort. I just posted a link to the data, the source of which is mainly the WHO. There was absolutely no misrepresentation at all.

And anyway, everyone knows the Earth is shaped like a Monster Munch.

Bollocks, the world is whatever shape Fankaty Dabo wants it to be that morning.

 

[Otis]

Oh come on now David. I had a little pop at you earlier for which I apologise, but I am doing nothing of the sort. I just posted a link to the data, the source of which is mainly the WHO. There was absolutely no misrepresentation at all.

And anyway, everyone knows the Earth is shaped like a Monster Munch.

But which flavour, Ferret?

I do know the sun is flamin hot.

 

[theferret]

But which flavour, Ferret?

I do know the sun is flamin hot.

It's like I keep saying, if the world isn't Monster Munch shaped, why does everything seem to smell like pickled onion? It's obvious, open your eyes!

 

[BornSlippySkyBlue]

No he is misrepresenting scientific evidence which us exactly what a flat earther would do

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk

Looks like he’s pulling the figures directly from the quoted source to me.

At the end of the day even the experts aren’t sure what the mortality rate will be yet for lots of the reasons mentioned above, but according to this chap (he is a senior doctor with the WHO and has just visited China):

“Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.”

Source:
'It's no worse than the flu': busting the coronavirus myths

 

[no_loyalty]

A British man has died, was on board the ship in Japan.

 

[David O'Day]

Looks like he’s pulling the figures directly from the quoted source to me.

At the end of the day even the experts aren’t sure what the mortality rate will be yet for lots of the reasons mentioned above, but according to this chap (he is a senior doctor with the WHO and has just visited China):

“Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.”

Source:
'It's no worse than the flu': busting the coronavirus myths

No he is taking one set of data and claiming that is all. There are very different mortality rates in different places ranging from 0% to 10% which can not be down to chance. This means you will have to look at other reasons for the rates of mortality including the conditions people live in, the general health of the population and the standard of healthcare in that area. It's morally wrong to start trying to scare people when no one including the worlds best virologists have these answers yet.

He is refusing to take into account the likely ness that as the virus presents as a mild cold in most healthy adults there will e alarge number of undetected non fatal cases.

#MIKEDROP

 

[theferret]

No he is taking one set of data and claiming that is all. There are very different mortality rates in different places ranging from 0% to 10% which can not be down to chance. This means you will have to look at other reasons for the rates of mortality including the conditions people live in, the general health of the population and the standard of healthcare in that area. It's morally wrong to start trying to scare people when no one including the worlds best virologists have these answers yet.

He is refusing to take into account the likely ness that as the virus presents as a mild cold in most healthy adults there will e alarge number of undetected non fatal cases.

#MIKEDROP

Without wishing to go around in circles, I'm not doing that at all.

I said two things. One that the mortality rate of flu is 0.1%. This is fact I think it is fair to say. I then said that Coronavirus is 2%, a figure that has been widely shared. A couple of people, Grendel being one, made the very reasonable point that this figure may come down because of unreported cases, to which I then shared a link to a site that suggested this had already been accounted for in the projections and which explained how the figure of 2% was arrived at.

That's it. I don't know why you have an issue with this. Of course there will be variations, and survival rates will differ depending on levels of healthcare and demographics - but that doesn't escape what the overall rates are on a global scale.

For example, a country may have 100 cases and no deaths. Another country, France for example has had 2 deaths from 41 cases, but these are very small sample sizes. The ship has now had 6 deaths from 700 cases, with 34 still critical, so this may end up being 1-2% suggesting that the projections are perhaps about right.

Not wanting to scare anyone at all, it was just an open discussion between lots of non-scientists who are quoting various sources, and if I'm honest, I very much hope the projections are too high, I think we all want that.

I think you have possibly muted me anyway, which is odd, so probably won't see this, but hey ho.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I think they’d extend the season into the summer

 

[Irish Sky Blue]

First series is great, second OK, third is rubbish. Basically they had a tiny budget for the third series, so it was just like Emmerdale, concentrating on self sufficiency and that. I have them as video files, so if you want them on a memory stick, send me a PM.

That’s kind.Thanks

 

[torchomatic]

That’s kind.Thanks

No worries.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I think they’d extend the season into the summer

If the EFL was cancelled I'm sure the Premier League would be too and I doubt UEFA would agree to moving the Euros so the leagues can finish.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

That was the radio 4 discussion they don’t know why it’s not a usual u shape curve. The experts I mean.

Awful rate amongst older age groups

This is all hypothetical from me but high deaths in youngsters are usually due to them not having yet built up a natural resistance/antibodies leaving them susceptible. With this being so new even adults don't have that natural resistance so it's a more even playing field.

Possibility also that sedentary lifestyles resulting in poor lung capacity compared to youngsters who tend to be more active. Build up of pollutants in adult lungs may also be a factor?

 

[The Great Eastern]

Reminds me of one of my favourite series from the 70s...



Written by Terry Nation who created Dr Who.

I didnt see the 1970's original series but really liked the 2008 to 2010 progs. Shame that the BBC didnt commission a 3rd series to finish the story.
Can clearly remember the 1st episode in 2008 where the character played by the extremely horny actress, Julie Graham, has just rolled her dead husbands body up in a carpet, dragged the corpse into the garden and setting fire to him. Days later, she meets another survivor (male) and shags him in a small lake ! One way of getting over your grief I guess....

 

[the rumpo kid]

I think your all missing the point even the o/p it should have been" will coronavirus scupper our chances of wanking during the game.?" I sure hope not , just think of all tissue manufacturers that could go bust , not to mention the cleaners for those who suffer from being a little premature, my god the consequences just don't bare thinking about , and the points we could lose, oh ! Please make it stop!

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

If the EFL was cancelled I'm sure the Premier League would be too and I doubt UEFA would agree to moving the Euros so the leagues can finish.

Think the euros unlikely to happen if everything stops

 

[torchomatic]

I didnt see the 1970's original series but really liked the 2008 to 2010 progs. Shame that the BBC didnt commission a 3rd series to finish the story.
Can clearly remember the 1st episode in 2008 where the character played by the extremely horny actress, Julie Graham, has just rolled her dead husbands body up in a carpet, dragged the corpse into the garden and setting fire to him. Days later, she meets another survivor (male) and shags him in a small lake ! One way of getting over your grief I guess....

Yes, I quite liked the later series too. There are some similarities, but they had a bigger budget so could show more devastation rather than just countryside as in the original series. Series 2 ended on a pretty good cliffhanger too. Shame they didn't commission a third series.

 

[Otis]

Yes, I quite liked the later series too. There are some similarities, but they had a bigger budget so could show more devastation rather than just countryside as in the original series. Series 2 ended on a pretty good cliffhanger too. Shame they didn't commission a third series.

Totally agree. I enjoy that rendition very much too and Julie Graham was great. It ended all very abruptly.

 

[DannyThomas_1981]

Actually in your case what happens is you never appear until the outcome is known and then gloat you knew the outcome anyway

Thanks for proving my point Grendel.

Repeat misinformation about people often enough to discredit that person if they don't agree with you vs. engaging in a rational and fact based debate.

We see this type of extreme narcissism globally in our very damaged politics today so it's not so surprising I guess it's reflected on here.

Most people I expect would prefer SBT to be about a healthy and engaging exchange of views on tactics, team news, transfers with lots of banter thrown in vs. oneupmanship and always needing to be right or discrediting the other person. I've also been guilty of this to be honest as well but I'm not going to get drawn into it going forward. Not a good use of the message boards.

Repeating misinformation about those who do not share your views is honestly pretty unhealthy but as above it seems to be a present symptom of today's climate.

 

[kg82]

Switzerland’s banned large gatherings (over 1000 people I think) today. I’m not sure if their league is now on pause or if they’ll play games behind closed doors.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Switzerland’s banned large gatherings (over 1000 people I think) today. I’m not sure if their league is now on pause or if they’ll play games behind closed doors.

They'll never contain it in Switzerland; it'll escape through the holes in the cheese.

 

[Grendel]

Thanks for proving my point Grendel.

Repeat misinformation about people often enough to discredit that person if they don't agree with you vs. engaging in a rational and fact based debate.

We see this type of extreme narcissism globally in our very damaged politics today so it's not so surprising I guess it's reflected on here.

Most people I expect would prefer SBT to be about a healthy and engaging exchange of views on tactics, team news, transfers with lots of banter thrown in vs. oneupmanship and always needing to be right or discrediting the other person. I've also been guilty of this to be honest as well but I'm not going to get drawn into it going forward. Not a good use of the message boards.

Repeating misinformation about those who do not share your views is honestly pretty unhealthy but as above it seems to be a present symptom of today's climate.

I don’t think you speak for most people I’m sure most people can speak for themselves

Your utopian vision for this forum sounds about as much fun as having to watch 24 hour back to back episodes of Terry and June

 

[fellatio_Martinez]

Thanks for proving my point Grendel.

Repeat misinformation about people often enough to discredit that person if they don't agree with you vs. engaging in a rational and fact based debate.

We see this type of extreme narcissism globally in our very damaged politics today so it's not so surprising I guess it's reflected on here.

Most people I expect would prefer SBT to be about a healthy and engaging exchange of views on tactics, team news, transfers with lots of banter thrown in vs. oneupmanship and always needing to be right or discrediting the other person. I've also been guilty of this to be honest as well but I'm not going to get drawn into it going forward. Not a good use of the message boards.

Repeating misinformation about those who do not share your views is honestly pretty unhealthy but as above it seems to be a present symptom of today's climate.

 

[DannyThomas_1981]

I don’t think you speak for most people I’m sure most people can speak for themselves

Your utopian vision for this forum sounds about as much fun as having to watch 24 hour back to back episodes of Terry and June

Reading 50,000+ posts from Grendel?

Or 24 hours of Terry and June which really is the final thing I'd ever watch?

I'll take Terry and June thanks.