Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Coronavirus may spread to 80% in UK and kill 1% of infected, but 'probably less'
It didn’t say very worse case scenario it said may be 80%
It didn’t say very worse case scenario it said may be 80%
Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
- Start date
CanadianCCFC
Well-Known Member
In North American sports, the NBA season (basketball) was suspended yesterday, the NHL (hockey) season was suspended today and the MLB (baseball) preseason will likely be suspended very soon as well. These decisions are better than playing in empty stadiums imo
Grendel
Well-Known Member
No we are not the first reported cases were not that far apart and Italy reported its first case 6 days before France - also the real rate on Italy is clearly higher chart the deaths to cases in the two countries and see what you conclude
Corrado
Well-Known Member
I don’t know why people are arguing about whether he said 80% will get it or whether he thought 80% was a worst case at the end of the day it’s all a fucking guessing game - no one knows the final number and no one knows what the final mortality rate will be.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Partly cause it’s a huge amount of people that’s all but I totally agree
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
He said it was his top level planning. You're done
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The first handful of cases or date of first reported case isn’t really relevant though. Look at the rate of change from dozens to 1000. Very similar growth rate. That’s when the virus is out in the community and being transmitted.
By two countries do you mean France and Italy or U.K. and Italy and what conclusions are you drawing from that?
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Winny the Bish
Well-Known Member
Just received this at work:
EFL STATEMENT: CORONAVIRUS UPDATE
In light of today’s announcement by the UK Government, EFL matches will continue to take place as normal while the guidance from the relevant authorities remains that there is no medical rationale to close or cancel sporting events at this time.
The EFL, however, will continue to work with Government and relevant stakeholders to further develop contingency plans to ensure the League is best placed to act as and when any potential restrictions may come into force.
Immediately following the announcement by the Prime Minister, EFL Chair Rick Parry held discussions with the FA and Premier League and agreed on a consistent approach ahead of this weekend’s round of fixtures. Matters will be further discussed at a meeting called by European Football’s Governing body, UEFA, on Tuesday 17 March.
The League will continue to liaise with the Government regarding ongoing developments and will continue to work with Clubs to ensure players, staff and supporters are updated and appraised accordingly.
These matters are, of course, subject to change and we will update as appropriate.
EFL STATEMENT: CORONAVIRUS UPDATE
In light of today’s announcement by the UK Government, EFL matches will continue to take place as normal while the guidance from the relevant authorities remains that there is no medical rationale to close or cancel sporting events at this time.
The EFL, however, will continue to work with Government and relevant stakeholders to further develop contingency plans to ensure the League is best placed to act as and when any potential restrictions may come into force.
Immediately following the announcement by the Prime Minister, EFL Chair Rick Parry held discussions with the FA and Premier League and agreed on a consistent approach ahead of this weekend’s round of fixtures. Matters will be further discussed at a meeting called by European Football’s Governing body, UEFA, on Tuesday 17 March.
The League will continue to liaise with the Government regarding ongoing developments and will continue to work with Clubs to ensure players, staff and supporters are updated and appraised accordingly.
These matters are, of course, subject to change and we will update as appropriate.
D
Deleted member 4439
Guest
Don't be such a drama queen. Nobody has any idea how many are likely to be infected.
D
Deleted member 4439
Guest
I think there is enough information now to support the mortality figure - what we don't know about is how contagious it is.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
You hear top level planning as the very very worse case scenario. I’m not sure that’s what he said but ok. What do you mean I’m done? It’s not a fuckin game
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Top level planning is 80% he thinks it will be less and hopefully much less. Still significant numbers of people will die earlier than they would have.
I believe his words were “reasonable worse case”.
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D
Deleted member 4439
Guest
Look, China has a pop of 1.4 bn. How many cases (infected, not deaths) to date? 80,793, with the rate reported to be slowing. Sense of proportion required. Over 1k deaths each mth from seasonal flu.
Last edited by a moderator:
David O'Day
Well-Known Member
You're done in this argument. I.e. stop saying they said 80 percent of the uk will get the virus. It was never said. End of
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Flying Fokker
Well-Known Member
Flying Fokker
Well-Known Member
That owner will increase the blood pressure of the under 70s fans wanting to see their team play. Plus he must have money to burn.
Flying Fokker
Well-Known Member
It’s the maths. I like stats but have my limits. Hence padded cell. Not a dig at you!
Just curious as there seems to be an irrational hatred of log scales in the thread.
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Flying Fokker
Well-Known Member
Chi square was the tipping point for me.
Brylowes
Well-Known Member
Pretty much like that here normally, bit of a postcode lottery.
mark82
Super Moderator
Yeah, they explained a bit more after I posted. Essentially if you have symptoms you're already at about day 4. From that point will be contagious for about 4 or 5 days so should be well clear by day 7 of isolation.
covmark
Well-Known Member
NEWS: EFL Statement - Coronavirus Update
Games going ahead as normal this weekend.
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Games going ahead as normal this weekend.
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COVKIDSNEVERQUIT
Well-Known Member
I piss where I want and won't use the bar.
And hold your breath for 90 minutes, so yes you'll be fine .
Yes but if you say it’s exaggerated and make a misguided comparison to the normal flu you might sound smart and reasonable.
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Grendel
Well-Known Member
All estimates of infection are the same regardless of strategy and Italy clearly is either lying about deaths or infection rates
RegTheDonk
Well-Known Member
Yeah I'm scratching my head also over this because as you say, the rate in China is supposed to be falling. Yet 24m has been touted, presumably thats for the UK and not world wide?
Brylowes
Well-Known Member
There is a very good reason for that.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Course and I could have said may rather than will
RegTheDonk
Well-Known Member
I do that most games!
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
It was almost like they were trying to allow a majority of people to get it for a kind of inoculation
SkyBlueDom26
Well-Known Member
China numbers will be complete bollocks, millions will have got it and god knows how many will have died