Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (176 Viewers)

[Astute]

Patrick Vallance, yesterday: “Communities will become immune to it and that's going to be an important part of controlling this longer term. About 60% is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity"

Matt Hancock, 24 hours later: “we have a plan, based on the expertise of world leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or our strategy”

They either haven’t got a clue what the plan is, or they’re just bullshitting

I like the way you say you shouldn't state anything as a fact as it is so fast moving yet state things as a fact for Tory bashing.

Do you think we should be in lockdown before many people have caught the virus?

Of there was something to go Tory bashing for don't you think the other parties would have done it by now?

 

---

[Astute]

Well according to the govt the inverted commas are well deserved, because pretty much everything he said is being disowned within 48 hours.

It’s a side issue here as we are where we are, but perhaps if they hadn’t fucked up the NHS in the first place they wouldn’t be quite so desperate to take the keep the strain away from it now.

You are making this into a party political broadcast. Labour under Bliar escalated the privatisation of the NHS.

And now you give out more false information after saying we shouldn't do it.

 

[Astute]

My main pension is with Peugeot, must be a few who worked their on here, does anyone have any numbers for me as i lost all my paperwork when my bathroom flooded (it leaked in to my kitchen and destroyed all my old paper work, number etc). Don't even know where to try now.

Have you had your 25% tax free yet?

If not you will have options. Is it a final salary? You could take the tax free or ask what the cash in value is. If it is still a going concern they might offer over the odds to get you to take your pension out of their pot. My pension is offering x30 of the pension accrued. Many are offering more. Let's say your pension is worth just 10k. X30 would give you 300k. 75k tax free and 225,000 to invest. 225,000 to keep you going with the tax free in bank until you get your state pension if you don't get it now. Then lower it when you do. The beauty of drawdown.

Any idea on what it is worth?

 

[pipkin73]

Have you had your 25% tax free yet?

If not you will have options. Is it a final salary? You could take the tax free or ask what the cash in value is. If it is still a going concern they might offer over the odds to get you to take your pension out of their pot. My pension is offering x30 of the pension accrued. Many are offering more. Let's say your pension is worth just 10k. X30 would give you 300k. 75k tax free and 225,000 to invest. 225,000 to keep you going with the tax free in bank until you get your state pension if you don't get it now. Then lower it when you do. The beauty of drawdown.

Any idea on what it is worth?

Don't know anything about tax free etc... (not taken a penny), been living abroad ever since i left Peugeot. They offered me (don't remember how many) thousands to cash in but i never needed the money so wanted to keep it safe for when i was older. Now, with this virus crap i might have to cash in so i can pay my bills and eat.

 

[pipkin73]

Wingy said he will ask his brother for contact info, guess i will know then. You seem to have an idea about this stuff, is it ok to pm you once i have my figures?

 

[wingy]

Have you had your 25% tax free yet?

If not you will have options. Is it a final salary? You could take the tax free or ask what the cash in value is. If it is still a going concern they might offer over the odds to get you to take your pension out of their pot. My pension is offering x30 of the pension accrued. Many are offering more. Let's say your pension is worth just 10k. X30 would give you 300k. 75k tax free and 225,000 to invest. 225,000 to keep you going with the tax free in bank until you get your state pension if you don't get it now. Then lower it when you do. The beauty of drawdown.

Any idea on what it is worth?

My brother was surprised at the total he received.

 

[djr8369]

This journal article explains it fairly well

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext

The numbers worldwide will be ugly by the end of all this because other countries and particularly the USA are doing an objectively worse job of managing the spread and access to treatment. The politicians now have to decide if they are going to cave to public pressure or if they are going to stick to the strategy which itself is designed to adapt to increasing numbers of cases. If working age people get infected in too large a number too quickly then the NHS and economy will collapse under it which is why the containment and delaying measures are essential. The elderly and already infirm have to be kept distanced (but not ignored) and I expect this to come soon.

Interesting read but aside from closing schools will have limited effect doesn’t seem to really back up our plan and at one point describes it as “light in detail”.

For what it’s worth I think the plan, as badly communicated as it has been, is probably good. My only issue, as I said after the press conference the other night, is that it’s unorthodox as nobody else is doing if, will come under immense public pressure and won’t survive contact with reality (see football leagues taking their own action). It also will take balls of steel to see through. I think those comments have held up well.


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[djr8369]

The paper itself explains the rationale behind what we're doing, editors of course will have their own view and nowhere have I said that Vallance has got it 100% right-I want to see more strict social distancing of the elderly ASAP. But I do think the government has been correct in principle to follow the strategy they have done and, until recently, to stand by it.

How does it explain the rationale? For most of it they’re advocating for more social distancing and saying this is been shown to be effective.


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[djr8369]

We at least have a free at the point of use healthcare system and statutory sick pay. The Americans don't have either and some individual states have more deaths than we do as a country. They are going to be the worst off out of the developed nations.

Agreed I think America will be a disaster. Will be interesting to see how that effects the politics there.


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[djr8369]

Don't know anything about tax free etc... (not taken a penny), been living abroad ever since i left Peugeot. They offered me (don't remember how many) thousands to cash in but i never needed the money so wanted to keep it safe for when i was older. Now, with this virus crap i might have to cash in so i can pay my bills and eat.

You can take 25% tax free, as Astute said. Don’t cash the lot in, you can take the 25 and see how that goes then draw off the rest when needed (assuming you’re old enough to access it)


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[PVA]

People keep saying the government are just going on the advice of their experts and advisors... Has the story of 250 scientists and experts writing to the government to say they aren't doing enough been posted yet?

 

[djr8369]

Where?

Taken from another forum, this was shared by an Italian woman. The link is in Italian so no idea what it says. Maybe Sick Boy can look over it and let us know if it looks legit.

“I’ll add another comment to what I wrote two days ago regarding Italy. I had noticed that, among the dead, men are vastly more than women. Today, I went to get the numbers. This is what I found, from the bulletin updated as of March 13 by our Istituto Superiore di Sanità (404).

Among the people who died aged 60-90 (below 60 and over 90 the numbers are too small to have any significance), here are the ratios:

- age 60-69: M 82% F 18%

- age 70-79: M 79% F 21%

- age 80-89: M 69% F 31%

Other people have explained this with smoking habits and more comorbidities among men than among women. But to me the difference appears to be quite dramatic, and while those factors may explain some of the difference, I think there's something else at work. Has such a dramatic difference been seen in China, Iran, South Korea? Can anybody else help unpack what's going on?”


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[djr8369]

People keep saying the government are just going on the advice of their experts and advisors... Has the story of 250 scientists and experts writing to the government to say they aren't doing enough been posted yet?

I haven’t seen anyone mention it but I saw it was being reported last night.


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[PVA]

I haven’t seen anyone mention it but I saw it was being reported last night.


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Coronavirus: Hundreds of scientists accuse government of 'risking lives' over COVID-19 plan

 

[djr8369]

Coronavirus: Hundreds of scientists accuse government of 'risking lives' over COVID-19 plan

When they were doing the Sunday paper review last night there was talk of the Army guarding supermarkets, £7.5 billion bailout for the airlines, cafe and bar jobs gone by summer and over 70s in quarantine for months.


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[shmmeee]

Coronavirus: Hundreds of scientists accuse government of 'risking lives' over COVID-19 plan

I wouldn’t pay much attention to that TBH these letters are generally just students and people unrelated to the field.

My three concerns In order are:

1) we are taking a risky strategy and not explaining it well at all. Off the record briefings and statements behind paywalls show a government that hasn’t got its public duty into its head and couldn’t communicate its way out of a paper bag. We are in a national emergency, start talking to people. All this panic. All this rumour. Directly their fault.

2) There’s some evidence covid19 immunity doesn’t last more than a couple of weeks. We really don’t know if herd immunity is even possible yet. It’s a gamble and one that looking at previous coronavirus strains Has pretty poor odds.

3) We are going against the experience and advice of countries further ahead than us on the assumption they can’t control the virus. Surely if they can we are just a massive infection vector island at that point.

Edit: 4) We have no idea of the long term impacts of contracting this. There’s early evidence of lung damage and infertility at least. Until we do it’s reckless to expose the population to it intentionally.

 

[Astute]

My brother was surprised at the total he received.

Some are offering silly money. A couple at my place have walked out with close to 1m :wideyed: The average has been between 600k and 750k. The biggies have been those with 40 years service. A pension of 25k a year becomes 750k at x30. That is nearly 200k tax free and still over half a million to invest. If it only gains 3% a year it is still over 15k a year.

 

[Astute]

I wouldn’t pay much attention to that TBH these letters are generally just students and people unrelated to the field.

My three concerns In order are:

1) we are taking a risky strategy and not explaining it well at all. Off the record briefings and statements behind paywalls show a government that hasn’t got its public duty into its head and couldn’t communicate its way out of a paper bag. We are in a national emergency, start talking to people. All this panic. All this rumour. Directly their fault.

2) There’s some evidence covid19 immunity doesn’t last more than a couple of weeks. We really don’t know if herd immunity is even possible yet. It’s a gamble and one that looking at previous coronavirus strains Has pretty poor odds.

3) We are going against the experience and advice of countries further ahead than us on the assumption they can’t control the virus. Surely if they can we are just a massive infection vector island at that point.

It also has to be put against people being able to make a living.

If you have a steady job with a secure and decent employer you should be OK. But millions are not. A shutdown is a shutdown.

My sister runs a pub in France. That is her shut now until further notice. All businesses except for petrol stations, tobacconists, newspaper stands, banks, grocery stores and chemists have been forced to close. How many people have enough savings to get them through several months? Because we don't know how long this will go in for.

 

[Flying Fokker]

I like the way you say you shouldn't state anything as a fact as it is so fast moving yet state things as a fact for Tory bashing.

Do you think we should be in lockdown before many people have caught the virus?

Of there was something to go Tory bashing for don't you think the other parties would have done it by now?

The thing is, we don’t know what Labour would do. My guess is that there would be discussions about us becoming a totalitarian state/ or sitting on the fence. There is no time for political inertia on either side. I hope this is seen as a collective intervention instead.

 

[djr8369]

It also has to be put against people being able to make a living.

If you have a steady job with a secure and decent employer you should be OK. But millions are not. A shutdown is a shutdown.

My sister runs a pub in France. That is her shut now until further notice. All businesses except for petrol stations, tobacconists, newspaper stands, banks, grocery stores and chemists have been forced to close. How many people have enough savings to get them through several months? Because we don't know how long this will go in for.

The economic impact is going to be huge. Wondering if bailouts and quantitative easing will end up being done on the scale of the global financial crisis.


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[Flying Fokker]

OLIVER HOLT: To void the season would be absurd... it is an idea peddled by those trying to weaponise a pandemic to deprive Liverpool and their fans of a league title they have craved for 30 years

• The idea that the season should be void is little more than a malign fantasy
• The right thing was done on Friday when they suspended competition until April
• But wrangling over who is entitled to what and legal actions still lies ahead
• Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

By OLIVER HOLT FOR THE MAIL ON SUNDAY

PUBLISHED: 22:31, 14 March 2020 | UPDATED: 22:58, 14 March 2020

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For the first time in 30 years, Liverpool are the champions of England. We knew that already and it looks now as though the coronavirus has confirmed it before mathematics could.

The idea that the season should be void is little more than a malign fantasy peddled by those trying to weaponise a pandemic to stop a rival team and its supporters claiming what is rightfully theirs.

The Premier League and the Football League did the right thing, belatedly, on Friday morning when they suspended competition until at least the beginning of April but the hard part — the wrangling over who is entitled to what, legal actions, contractual disputes — still lies ahead.

+9
The idea to void the season is being led by those wanting to deny Liverpool their craved title

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The idea of a three-week delay to the football calendar is the definition of optimism, or self-delusion. Even though it is still hard for us to comprehend, it is much more likely, sadly, that the 2019-20 season is already over, its drama truncated, its climax over before it began. They may not know it yet but we already have our winners and losers.

The idea that the season should be void is absurd. It is a solution driven almost solely by a gleeful desire to deprive Liverpool and their fans of a league title they have craved for 30 years. It should not even be considered as an option. It is not as if the season was in its infancy. It was threequarters over anyway.

There may well be an asterisk in the history books next to Liverpool's title win this season. That will be some consolation to those desperate to deprive them of their moment. Nor will their fans get to experience the explosion of joy they would have felt had their team confirmed their triumph on the pitch, perhaps by beating Everton at Goodison which was due to happen tomorrow.


+9
The Premier League belatedly did the right thing on Friday when they suspended

+9
Liverpool have craved the title for 30 years and deserve to be crowned the champions

That does not change the fact that, not only are Liverpool 25 points clear at the top of the table, but also that the season is more than old enough for us to be able to say that the standings as they are now are legitimate indicators of merit. We have never been in a situation like this before but the solution is clear and obvious: if there is no resumption, the current positions should be frozen and declared as final.

It is not ideal. Nobody will pretend that it is. Some, particularly those fighting relegation, or teams like Manchester United, who were beginning to make a decent run on a place in the top four, may protest that it would be unfair. And they may be right. These are extraordinary times that have already delivered extreme measures. Freezing the standings now is the best of a list of imperfect outcomes.

If you want to search for precedent, look at Chile last year. The domestic season was still six games short of completion when the country was gripped by social unrest and mass demonstrations.

When an attempt at resumption failed, Universidad Catolica, who were leading their nearest rivals, Colo-Colo, by 13 points at the time of the suspension, were declared league winners. No teams were relegated to the Primera

+9
Manchester United will deem a decision to freeze current positions unfair given their form

So if there is no resumption, Liverpool must be declared champions. Manchester City, if their appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport succeeds, Leicester City and Chelsea will take up the remaining Champions League spots. Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich will be relegated. Leeds will be promoted as champions from the Championship and West Brom will go up with them. And so on.

It is not really that radical. It is a form of force majeure. The circumstances are different but freezing results like this is hardly unprecedented. If a fight has gone more than four rounds and is ended by, say, a cut caused by an unintentional clash of heads, then a winner is declared by technical decision on the basis of the judges' scorecards at that time. It is unsatisfactory but it happens.

It is fortunate that in this season of all seasons, the Premier League should have runaway leaders. For all the half-hearted attempts to say Liverpool cannot now be named champions, everyone knows that they already are champions. In other years, the result might still be wide open at this stage. Not this time. It was over, bar the mathematics, long ago.

Other issues were more keenly fought. The battle to avoid relegation was desperately close and Aston Villa and Bournemouth, in particular, will feel they still had a decent chance of escaping the

+9
Bournemouth, in particular, will feel they still had a decent chance of escaping the drop

If this is, indeed, the end of the season, it will be desperately harsh on them and their fans but the axe has to fall somewhere and if there is no resumption, it will have fallen on them.

There have already been some suggestions that if there is no more play, there should be no relegation this season and the Premier League should be made up of 22 teams next season instead.

It is a fudge based on financial compassion but it is a fudge nonetheless. It would be cleaner to adopt the same principle at the bottom as the top. Villa's game in hand would not save them from the drop.

In conventional terms, in ordinary times, we would say it was not fair. But nothing about a virus that picks on the old and the infirm is fair, either.

And these are not ordinary times. No one wanted it to end this way but it might just be time to get on with it and accept that sometimes, even in our sports-mad country, society has other priorities

 

[shmmeee]

It also has to be put against people being able to make a living.

If you have a steady job with a secure and decent employer you should be OK. But millions are not. A shutdown is a shutdown.

My sister runs a pub in France. That is her shut now until further notice. All businesses except for petrol stations, tobacconists, newspaper stands, banks, grocery stores and chemists have been forced to close. How many people have enough savings to get them through several months? Because we don't know how long this will go in for.

That’s politics in a nutshell. How much are people’s lives worth to the economy?

We have a rough idea how long it’ll go on for because we can model the measures and we’ve seen other countries bending the curve with various strategies. We’ve also got a rough idea how long it’ll take to develop vaccines and/or treatments, also there will be money to be made here. Many well paid sections of the economy will continue and if it were long term you’d see a lot of events/hospitality staff moving into logistics, last mile delivery, and medicine. It’s likely to be similar to the crash in terms of economic impact but also provide a lot of room for growth areas the crash didn’t and areas like finance will be quite resilient to ensure money gets to where it needs to be.

When it’s a few hundred thousand people dying and the same again infertile if disabled compared to a few million maybe being on benefits and retraining, I’m not sure it’s such a simple sum as some are making out. This is why we need to see the numbers. I can’t tell you what I’d support personally but even if I could I have no idea if that’s what’s being proposed.

 

[djr8369]

I wouldn’t pay much attention to that TBH these letters are generally just students and people unrelated to the field.

My three concerns In order are:

1) we are taking a risky strategy and not explaining it well at all. Off the record briefings and statements behind paywalls show a government that hasn’t got its public duty into its head and couldn’t communicate its way out of a paper bag. We are in a national emergency, start talking to people. All this panic. All this rumour. Directly their fault.

2) There’s some evidence covid19 immunity doesn’t last more than a couple of weeks. We really don’t know if herd immunity is even possible yet. It’s a gamble and one that looking at previous coronavirus strains Has pretty poor odds.

3) We are going against the experience and advice of countries further ahead than us on the assumption they can’t control the virus. Surely if they can we are just a massive infection vector island at that point.

Edit: 4) We have no idea of the long term impacts of contracting this. There’s early evidence of lung damage and infertility at least. Until we do it’s reckless to expose the population to it intentionally.

The other aspect is you’ve got people who have spent the last couple of years demonising experts to warp reality to suit their political ambitions and saying the public knows best now having to say it’s imperative we listen to experts and public opinion is irrelevant. There’s no congruency so it becomes more difficult to effectively disseminate the messages.

The public are primed to think what feels right to them is correct so following counter intuitive expert advice is now difficult.


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[Sky Blue Pete]

That’s politics in a nutshell. How much are people’s lives worth to the economy?

We have a rough idea how long it’ll go on for because we can model the measures and we’ve seen other countries bending the curve with various strategies. We’ve also got a rough idea how long it’ll take to develop vaccines and/or treatments, also there will be money to be made here. Many well paid sections of the economy will continue and if it were long term you’d see a lot of events/hospitality staff moving into logistics, last mile delivery, and medicine. It’s likely to be similar to the crash in terms of economic impact but also provide a lot of room for growth areas the crash didn’t and areas like finance will be quite resilient to ensure money gets to where it needs to be.

When it’s a few hundred thousand people dying and the same again infertile if disabled compared to a few million maybe being on benefits and retraining, I’m not sure it’s such a simple sum as some are making out. This is why we need to see the numbers. I can’t tell you what I’d support personally but even if I could I have no idea if that’s what’s being proposed.

What’s your gut say my friend?

 

[Astute]

That’s politics in a nutshell. How much are people’s lives worth to the economy?

We have a rough idea how long it’ll go on for because we can model the measures and we’ve seen other countries bending the curve with various strategies. We’ve also got a rough idea how long it’ll take to develop vaccines and/or treatments, also there will be money to be made here. Many well paid sections of the economy will continue and if it were long term you’d see a lot of events/hospitality staff moving into logistics, last mile delivery, and medicine. It’s likely to be similar to the crash in terms of economic impact but also provide a lot of room for growth areas the crash didn’t and areas like finance will be quite resilient to ensure money gets to where it needs to be.

When it’s a few hundred thousand people dying and the same again infertile if disabled compared to a few million maybe being on benefits and retraining, I’m not sure it’s such a simple sum as some are making out. This is why we need to see the numbers. I can’t tell you what I’d support personally but even if I could I have no idea if that’s what’s being proposed.

The British government don't kniw what they are going to do next. But no other government does either. I came back from France a week ago today. Everything was normal. But the virus was spreading. I spoke to the wife about what we would do with the kids when the schools closed. It hadn't been mentioned at that stage. Have set a part of the kitchen up as a school. And in the good weather they will be in the garden having lessons.

But a week later they have gone from normal to nearly everywhere shut.

 

[djr8369]

The British government don't kniw what they are going to do next. But no other government does either. I came back from France a week ago today. Everything was normal. But the virus was spreading. I spoke to the wife about what we would do with the kids when the schools closed. It hadn't been mentioned at that stage. Have set a part of the kitchen up as a school. And in the good weather they will be in the garden having lessons.

But a week later they have gone from normal to nearly everywhere shut.

It’s incredible how quickly things are escalating and that’s with our government saying the peak is potentially months away. Hope you’re family are fine over there.


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[Deleted member 4439]

My main pension is with Peugeot, must be a few who worked their on here, does anyone have any numbers for me as i lost all my paperwork when my bathroom flooded (it leaked in to my kitchen and destroyed all my old paper work, number etc). Don't even know where to try now.

The numbers are all going to be different, not least on the number of years you put in. You can request an up-to-date statement on pension amount and worth from them. I did this a few years ago, more out of interest (still a few years before I can claim). Well done for holding on to it, as I believe quite a few regretted cashing in on the plan when Peugeot was looking to offload its commitments.

Make sure you ask for a pension plan cash value statement as well as an up-to-date benefits illustration.

Peugeot Pensions
Pinley House
2 Sunbeam Way
Coventry
CV3 1ND

 

[Happy_Martian]

We can talk and argue and postulate but having looked around a lot of fans forums and seeing the various news stories, opinions on what will or should happen is dictated by where your team is currently in the league.

The Leagues are talking on Thursday, according to the News, so let's see what they think before we all melt down. Saying that, if the forum does go into meltdown, "experts" have suggested that the virus will die off with heat (they said of the summer months but any heat would be fine, I guess)

 

[covcity4life]

Only way lkkely noe serms to be if delay nee season to octoberish

June restart still seems pie in sky ffs

So frustrrating

 

[itsabuzzard]

Only way lkkely noe serms to be if delay nee season to octoberish

June restart still seems pie in sky ffs

So frustrrating

Don't know about octoberish. Gibberish more like.

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[hill83]

Only way lkkely noe serms to be if delay nee season to octoberish

June restart still seems pie in sky ffs

So frustrrating

Too far this time

 

[Flying Fokker]

Exclusive: Football braced for ‘total shutdown’ until September

 

[Tommo1993]

We can talk and argue and postulate but having looked around a lot of fans forums and seeing the various news stories, opinions on what will or should happen is dictated by where your team is currently in the league.

The Leagues are talking on Thursday, according to the News, so let's see what they think before we all melt down. Saying that, if the forum does go into meltdown, "experts" have suggested that the virus will die off with heat (they said of the summer months but any heat would be fine, I guess)

Not too sure our summer will sort it out. Judging by Spain.

 

[covcity4life]

Exclusive: Football braced for ‘total shutdown’ until September

Where they wud prob start a new season from scrstch

 

[shmmeee]

What’s your gut say my friend?

My gut says bring in emergency laws to see people not kicked out of homes/gas turned off/etc. Keep schools open but with a clear work from home and keep the kids with you if you can message. Extend opening hours, cancel Ofsteds, offer wraparound that reduces demand on grandparents. Send kids with symptoms home. Cancel mass events. Helicopter in huge sums of money to industries/people effected. Requisition staff/beds from private hospitals and factories to make ventilators. Tax breaks to delivery/grocery companies to offer free delivery of food. Hope something turns up in the next couple of months that makes it more manageable. Isolate the vulnerable as much as possible.

Lockdown is coming. The question now is only how long we wait. Medically I’d do it right away. Economically I’d let the virus rip. The right answer IMO has to be to do everything we can that doesn’t have a dramatic economic effect rather than only doing things that have a dramatic medical effect.