Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (74 Viewers)

ccfcricoh

Well-Known Member
How would they, if its based on form? That means that most deserving teams would be in the play offs
How many games do you take the form for though? last 6? Last 8? Last 10? or just do PPG overall so far? Each one likely to have a different outcome.

If last 6 - Oxford in playoffs
If PPG - Wycombe
 
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Deleted member 4439

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Swine Flu has a mortality rate far far lower than COVID19. Even lower estimates for COVID put it at 50 times as lethal.

It’s the combination of lethality and contagiousness that you use to judge severity not one or the other.

I don't think that's the case. Swine flu had a mortality rate of 0.8%. The thinking appears to be that covid-19 may have a mortality rate of 2% but confess I haven't seen too much on projected infections. Do you have a link?
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
I don't think that's the case. Swine flu had a mortality rate of 0.8%. The thinking appears to be that covid-19 may have a mortality rate of 2% but confess I haven't seen too much on projected infections.

Was going off this for swine flu at 0.02%:

upload_2020-3-10_17-46-4.jpeg

And estimating COVID at 1% lower bounds.
 
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Deleted member 4439

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I took my figure for swine flu from a peer-reviewed paper. But this aside, Shimmeee, I don't think this gives us a window into its contagiousness, which would be the other component here on how lethal it is. On the mortality rate, it's been considered that the worldometer figure is inflated by a lesser accuracy in identifying covid-19 at the early stages of the outbreak. But we know it all too early to say.
 

Tommo1993

Well-Known Member
Heard on Radio 2 that it takes 5 days for symptoms to kick in. I’m not quite panicking just yet, a bit worried maybe to see how soon they’re going to nip this in the bud.

Just hoping the bog roll horders get the chronic shits. And hopefully those selling it on get it even worse.
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Heard on Radio 2 that it takes 5 days for symptoms to kick in. I’m not quite panicking just yet, a bit worried maybe to see how soon they’re going to nip this in the bud.

Just hoping the bog roll horders get the chronic shits. And hopefully those selling it on get it even worse.
If they're from Holbrooks they may need the shit roll what with typhoid making a comeback.

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Kieranp96

Well-Known Member
I have, but I’ve never seen that said anywhere before and as you said it on a public forum I wondered if you could maybe back it up?
It was around the time the women in this country took a Uber to hospital, and they said something like there was not enough sustained close contact and that it can only spread a few feet Infront of you, but this was before the new strain the less deadly strain was identified.
 

Gibbo

Well-Known Member
Things you should know.
1. Every western country is on exactly the same track as Italy, the only variable is the date of the first case. So in two weeks time UK likely to be like Italy today
2. Only one western economy breaks this rule - Japan, which is curious given the age of the population
3. Italy has a death rate of 8% - but it too has an elderly population
4. Euro's likely to be put off so that domestic competitions can be completed.
5. China's cycle from start to finish was around 8 weeks.
6. An open air football stadium has a low contamination risk. BUT WHO advice (not yet done by HM Govt) is for over 60's not to go (bugger)
 

Grendel

Well-Known Member
Things you should know.
1. Every western country is on exactly the same track as Italy, the only variable is the date of the first case. So in two weeks time UK likely to be like Italy today
2. Only one western economy breaks this rule - Japan, which is curious given the age of the population
3. Italy has a death rate of 8% - but it too has an elderly population
4. Euro's likely to be put off so that domestic competitions can be completed.
5. China's cycle from start to finish was around 8 weeks.
6. An open air football stadium has a low contamination risk. BUT WHO advice (not yet done by HM Govt) is for over 60's not to go (bugger)

Italy is unique to its exploration of illegal Chinese workers who are shipped in and out to support their fashion industry
 

BornSlippySkyBlue

Well-Known Member
It was around the time the women in this country took a Uber to hospital, and they said something like there was not enough sustained close contact and that it can only spread a few feet Infront of you, but this was before the new strain the less deadly strain was identified.
How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science
This article (references studies from peer reviewed journals) states that flu has an infection rate, (measured by how many people each infected person will infect and called R0) of R0 = 1.2. Preliminary studies suggest Coronavirus has an infection rate of R0 = 2 - 3, so its roughly twice as infectious as the flu. Which kills many thousands every year. It also has a significantly higher mortality rate. So, easier to catch than the flu and significantly more deadly according to the data so far.

If you have any source that contradicts those figures I’ll happily take a look.
 
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Deleted member 4439

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How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science
This article (references studies from peer reviewed journals) states that flu has an infection rate, (measured by how many people each infected person will infect and called R0) of R0 = 1.2. Preliminary studies suggest Coronavirus has an infection rate of R0 = 2 - 3, so its roughly twice as infectious as the flu. Which kills many thousands every year. It also has a significantly higher mortality rate. So, easier to catch than the flu and significantly more deadly according to the data so far.

If you have any source that contradicts those figures I’ll happily take a look.

Yes, it has a significantly higher rate than 'seasonal flu' but not significantly higher than the 2009 swine flu pandemic. Again, swine flue rate was 0.8%, the figures in the article you quote vary from 1-4% to 2.3%. Again, context is important 1% of the world caught swine flu, of which 1% died
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
Things you should know.
1. Every western country is on exactly the same track as Italy, the only variable is the date of the first case. So in two weeks time UK likely to be like Italy today
2. Only one western economy breaks this rule - Japan, which is curious given the age of the population
3. Italy has a death rate of 8% - but it too has an elderly population
4. Euro's likely to be put off so that domestic competitions can be completed.
5. China's cycle from start to finish was around 8 weeks.
6. An open air football stadium has a low contamination risk. BUT WHO advice (not yet done by HM Govt) is for over 60's not to go (bugger)
That is just not true, italy couldn't get a handle on where the virus was entering from meaning they couldn't contain the spread. The first confirmed cases were on the same day in the uk and italy.

Also the leaking of the plan to lock down Lombardy was spread it around the country faster than normal.

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CanadianCCFC

Well-Known Member
Any mention on here about the Nottingham Forest owner testing positive for corona virus? He was also at their last game...
 

Otis

Well-Known Member
Any mention on here about the Nottingham Forest owner testing positive for corona virus? He was also at their last game...
No. What?!!!!

First I have heard of it.

giphy.gif
 
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Deleted member 4439

Guest
Things you should know.
3. Italy has a death rate of 8% - but it too has an elderly population

5% according to the bbc. Again, the real rate will only be known once more extensive testing for the disease has taken place.
 

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