Hideously expensive to pay some of the worst state pensions in Europe
This election will be closer than everyone thinks, the polls have narrowed from a Labour lead of 20 points 12 today.
If Starmer makes the same mistake as May in 2017 by trying to win an election with no real policies, he could mess up big time and perhaps squander a majority.
I won’t vote Labour, but it’s time the Tories get kicked out to reinvent themselves.
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Polls will narrow but this outlier has always been the lower pollster for Labour. They do some jiggery pokery around don’t knows and assume people will change so it’s already pricing in the polls closing, it’s not actually evidence of the polls closing yet if that makes sense. If their model is right (and it hasn’t been so far) then it should stay the same while other polls tighten.
There is no dependency on tax to pay for pensions in the UK. There is in an individual state in the Eurozone.Pensions aren’t sustainable in the rest of Europe either because our tax base is shrinking whilst our population is aging. It’s a demographic time bomb for all of us.
UK pensioners also don’t need to pay into mandatory health insurance funds like their European counterparts. There’s also benefits like heating allowance, free bus passes, TV licenses and so on. It all adds to the costs.
Why does the slant of the graph appear to hoodwink people?Ah the 12% poll
it has labour down 1%
it does imply that the gap is closing when in fact it is pretty much bumping along within the margin of errorWhy does the slant of the graph appear to hoodwink people?
How do you know their model hasn’t been right so far?
As I say, the election has only just been announced. There’s been no manifestos, no debates so a lot will change. So I wouldn’t take any poll(s) as gospel.
The 20% poll lead for Labour in recent weeks is more of an indication of how dissatisfied the public our with this government. There isn’t that enthusiasm for Starmer this time around as it was for Blair in 2017.
My personal opinion is that Starmer and Labour will campaign badly but still win the election. Parallel to May in 2017.
Wrong footed a few pundits then,, let's see what they get up to with Kier after this I guess!!Diane Abbot has been reinstated back into the Labour Party.
Only to supposedly bar her from standing. What a way to treat the first black female MP.Diane Abbot has been reinstated back into the Labour Party.
Sounds that way. Apparently the investigation into her was concluded in December. If you were being cynical you’d say that they were running the clock down hoping that she walks away from politics but have been caught out with the shock GEOnly to supposedly bar her from standing. What a way to treat the first black female MP.
Only to supposedly bar her from standing. What a way to treat the first black female MP.
I don’t know to be honest. If they are going to stop her running for Labour at least have the decency to tell her so she can either choose to step down, or run as an independent. I imagine she’d do well if she ran on her own, whether it’s enough to take the seat I don’t know.Could she not just leave the party and stand? Or would that not play well optically for her?
Genuine questions by the way - not familiar with how candidate selection etc works.
You would imagine the reason its been left this long, when it was decided months ago and they were probably hoping to hold out until the deadline passed, is so she doesn't have time to organise an independent campaign that she would more than likely win.Could she not just leave the party and stand? Or would that not play well optically for her?
Genuine questions by the way - not familiar with how candidate selection etc works.
What assumptions do the pollsters make about turnout? For example, it is assumed that turnout is consistent regardless of intention or is it assumed that don't knows are probably less likely to vote?
But we've had growth (albeit small growth) yet people are getting poorer overall. So it already shows that growth does not mean everyone gets something. Just because that growth figure goes up doesn't mean the poorer will get any of it. And if they don't it makes their situation a lot worse.Well I believe in wealth redistribution so who and where not as important as getting something. Anything. We’ve had virtually nothing since 2010. Get that back then we can worry about if it’s the right type of growth.
Mostly housing and transport are needed IMO so where the growth is doesn’t matter so much because people can more easily get to it or live by it.
But we've had growth (albeit small growth) yet people are getting poorer overall. So it already shows that growth does not mean everyone gets something. Just because that growth figure goes up doesn't mean the poorer will get any of it. And if they don't it makes their situation a lot worse.
Where growth occurs is absolutely fundamental to its importance as a KPI.
Genuine questions, not canvassing, if anyone knows how polls work, i have a bunch of questions, so thx in advance.
Everyone arguing about which poll is correct, have any of you ever been asked in a GE poll for your opinion? I certainly never have nor any of my close family or network, so wondered how data is gathered.
If we assume it's not general public in the street, do we know if one group of people from any side are more or less honest with sharing their intentions?
If it's always the same people we gauge from who send in data, how likely are they to change at all and flip-flop more than once in six weeks and are they more or less likely to vote a particular bias on the basis they are already engaged and interested in politics versus the large swathes who either aren't fussed, vote because they should or don't bother at all.
Do we know that they represent a particular demographic fairly by age, race, sex, region or ant other factor.
Imo would need to be min 10k people on each to be diverse enough to draw conclusions at which level you'd assume by now I'd come across someone's who had been asked.
Can’t see anything other than a solid Labour majority even with the large swing required (still 10s at Betfair for a hung parliament sick boy)
Sunaks not a great campaigner and he hasn’t given the NI cut and real term wage increases time to really benefit people.
He might’ve firmed up some of their traditional base but there’s no real vision for the rest of the country. Even though labours been light ish on this, they don’t look like making any massive campaign mistakes (look better prepared than Tories - bizarre when timing is Tories call) and without that, ‘change’ will likely be enough after 14 years inc coalition
A 30% reduction in house prices, which wont happen, would still make them unaffordable for many young people.
This. Even on the rare occasion they announce something you actually agree with they handle it so badly it still comes across as a negativeSunaks not a great campaigner
But we've had growth (albeit small growth) yet people are getting poorer overall. So it already shows that growth does not mean everyone gets something. Just because that growth figure goes up doesn't mean the poorer will get any of it. And if they don't it makes their situation a lot worse.
Where growth occurs is absolutely fundamental to its importance as a KPI.
If he does a May in 2017 he won’t win.
I know their model hasn’t been right so far because it’s not been tested so it can’t be. It’s a guess basically.
This poll in particular is MoE movement with field work before any policy announcements. It’s basically saying the same as every single poll so far: not much is moving.
A 30% fall in house prices will plunge a lot of people into negative equity, with potentially disastrous consequences for them personally and for the wider economy.
The people who will be worst affected will be first time buyers - usually the younger generation - as they are the ones with mortgages which are a high percentage of the house value.
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