But will the candidate be male at the next election?The Green candidate here is male?
Highly likely, however I do believe Liz Truss polls very highly among CV Conservative party members.But will the candidate be male at the next election?
Anyway, just joshing. Of course it will, statistically speaking.
But will the candidate be male at the next election?
Anyway, just joshing. Of course it will, statistically speaking.
It’s beyond crazy that people actually fall for thinking Johnson and the rest of the cabinet are men and women of the people.
What makes them think that De Pfeffel is ‘in touch with them’. It’s amazing how many fall for the vacuous slogans.
The whole interview was about whether misogyny should be made a crime.Going to have to wash after defending Raab but he said “insults and misogyny” not just “misogyny”.
Boris is now King Boris.It's fucking infuriating!
People just seem to think if someone in a position of authority has a plummy voice they are trustworthy and are fit to rule over us.
The main opposition party won’t support PR though, which is ironic seeing as they haven’t got a cat in hells chance of winning a majority outright under FPTP.Boris is now King Boris.
The people (well about 40% of voters) believe in a variation of the divine right of kings. He is entitled to rule. If things go wrong he must replace courtiers but rally the faithful with rousing speeches like Henry V against the French.
The rest of us have to wait until some of the 40% lose their faith or a progressive alliance gives us PR.
They have more chance with with FPTP than PRThe main opposition party won’t support PR though, which is ironic seeing as they haven’t got a cat in hells chance of winning a majority outright under FPTP.
The main opposition party won’t support PR though, which is ironic seeing as they haven’t got a cat in hells chance of winning a majority outright under FPTP.
They would - so to get Labour into ‘power’ they are going to have to form some kind of progress alliance with the SNP, Greens, PC and probably even LD, and a proper strategy of standing down candidates based on the make-up of the individual seats.For anyone to implement PR they’d first have to win under FPTP. Which means they will have had a cat in hells chance and therefore won’t want to change it. See Labour in 97 where PR was in the manifesto.
They would - so to get Labour into ‘power’ they are going to have to form some kind of progress alliance with the SNP, Greens, PC and probably even LD, and a proper strategy of standing down candidates based on the make-up of the individual seats.
Have those numbers been crunched on a seat by seat basis for the last election? Would be interesting to see the impact it would have had.No matter how you slice the parties that problem remains. Greens win Brighton or Labour win Brighton still one MP, LDs win Sheff Hallam or Labour do still one MP.
Yeah you don't bring the SNP into it, as it would indeed go down badly, and any deal would involve a referendum on Scottish independence. Of course in a general sense, it's probably worth noting that a strong Labour Party is better for the Union, as the SNP are seen as an alternative to the Tories in a country that's always been traditionally left of centre, be it Liberal or Labour, so a strong Labour diminishes the SNP.Have those numbers been crunched on a seat by seat basis for the last election? Would be interesting to see the impact it would have had.
Obviously not an exact science as you don't know that if, for example, a Labour candidate stood down all those votes would go to the remaining progressive candidate.
Just looking at the headline numbers for the whole electorate an alliance of Labour & Lib Dem means there's only 1,000 votes in it, add in the Greens and they're ahead of the Conservatives without bringing the SNP in to it - would that not translate to seats won?
To answer my own question couldn't find anything for 2019 with a quick google but did find some data for 2017 which suggests a progressive alliance would have put the Conservatives down to 267 with a progressive alliance of Labour, Lib Dem & Green on 325.Have those numbers been crunched on a seat by seat basis for the last election?
To answer my own question couldn't find anything for 2019 with a quick google but did find some data for 2017 which suggests a progressive alliance would have put the Conservatives down to 267 with a progressive alliance of Labour, Lib Dem & Green on 325.
For anyone to implement PR they’d first have to win under FPTP. Which means they will have had a cat in hells chance and therefore won’t want to change it. See Labour in 97 where PR was in the manifesto.
Yeah you don't bring the SNP into it, as it would indeed go down badly, and any deal would involve a referendum on Scottish independence. Of course in a general sense, it's probably worth noting that a strong Labour Party is better for the Union, as the SNP are seen as an alternative to the Tories in a country that's always been traditionally left of centre, be it Liberal or Labour, so a strong Labour diminishes the SNP.
Back in the day, of course, the Labour Party only became strong thanks to the Liberals standing down in certain seats, to enable Labour to get a foothold and improve the progressive dominance over the Tories. It kind of worked, too... but then Lloyd George upped and split the Liberal Party, and any gains went.
Not sure going from 33% to 35% is much cause for optimism if you're a Labour supporter given that 33% led to what we keep being reminded was the worst night for Labour since 1935.Meanwhile in reality land posting outlier polls is not an honest practise:
Not sure going from 33% to 35% is much cause for optimism if you're a Labour supporter given that 33% led to what we keep being reminded was the worst night for Labour since 1935.
Talking of polls, here's an interesting one. Don't stop at the first tweet, but the stuff about appealing to your audience is key - and dials into discussions of pragmatism etc. Who actually *is* your political enemy? Conservatives are better at seeeing and showing that...
It's still such very strange times we live in, I don't really know when an appropriate point to judge is, you know. I'm not sure we're quite there yet... but does any recession etc. get a free pass as Covid related, or does the government get a hit even if it *is* Covid related? When do the past few Brexit and Covid years balance back into some kind of normality?!?
It does offer the potential for excuses however. Interest rates and inflation rises? Well, it's Covid innit. Unemployment goes up? Well, it's Covid. Conversely, keep it AOK, and you look even better than usual. The question is how many people are willing to excuse fuckups as not their fault guv - and it seems that's a fairly solid amount, that will take a lot of whittling down. What Johnson does have is a bit of the Thatchers about him, that it doesn't matter if a sizeable amount think he's a vacuous dishonest fraud... as long as he can keep his support base relatively solid. Whether you approve of him or not, it's fair to say he's good at playing politics in that respect, better than most.Fair bit of evidence Covid and Brexit bounces are wearing off if you look at the polling. Vaccine bump started Dec last year and seems to be wearing off. Perhaps another with boosters?
What’s interesting for me is that Johnson is less well liked than May was. But where he is liked is ex Labour heartlands and where he’s disliked is the south where voters are suspicious of Labours economic record.
By interesting I mean infinitely frustrating and annoying.
The gap for Labour right now is economic competence and leadership in the south. Which is a hard gap to fit into and would send the membership into fits.
Genuinely think you’ve got to wait for Johnson to get bored and wander off at this point.
Fair bit of evidence Covid and Brexit bounces are wearing off if you look at the polling. Vaccine bump started Dec last year and seems to be wearing off. Perhaps another with boosters?
What’s interesting for me is that Johnson is less well liked than May was. But where he is liked is ex Labour heartlands and where he’s disliked is the south where voters are suspicious of Labours economic record.
By interesting I mean infinitely frustrating and annoying.
The gap for Labour right now is economic competence and leadership in the south. Which is a hard gap to fit into and would send the membership into fits.
Genuinely think you’ve got to wait for Johnson to get bored and wander off at this point.
It does offer the potential for excuses however. Interest rates and inflation rises? Well, it's Covid innit. Unemployment goes up? Well, it's Covid. Conversely, keep it AOK, and you look even better than usual. The question is how many people are willing to excuse fuckups as not their fault guv - and it seems that's a fairly solid amount, that will take a lot of whittling down. What Johnson does have is a bit of the Thatchers about him, that it doesn't matter if a sizeable amount think he's a vacuous dishonest fraud... as long as he can keep his support base relatively solid. Whether you approve of him or not, it's fair to say he's good at playing politics in that respect, better than most.
What you need is a Liberal Party along the lines it was under Ashdown and Kennedy (arguably, you want it more like Clegg's tbh, but it needs that pair's credibility, that vanished into the night once they joined in coalition!) to fight the south, while Labour focus on a more traditional brand of social democracy to fight the north... before they join together in one harmonious Blairite compromise.
And yes, I know that intransigence and internal bickering will mean that'll never happen...
Trouble with economic competence is you can't disprove that unless someone actually gives you the power to do it, and they won't give you the power because they think you're economically incompetent. Labour councils are given less support by the government and when they struggle this is viewed as them being unable to run things properly, not the government failing to fund them properly. Under New Labour the economy was ok on the whole and I don't think you could claim it's better under the Tories. Austerity made the recession worse yet we're not seeing that translated as economic incompetence.
We seem to still be working off historic impressions. Labour is still intrinsically linked to the 70's and huge TU power but have been a different animal for some time. Even under Corbyn's lurch to the left they weren't anywhere near the same.
Fair bit of evidence Covid and Brexit bounces are wearing off if you look at the polling. Vaccine bump started Dec last year and seems to be wearing off. Perhaps another with boosters?
What’s interesting for me is that Johnson is less well liked than May was. But where he is liked is ex Labour heartlands and where he’s disliked is the south where voters are suspicious of Labours economic record.
By interesting I mean infinitely frustrating and annoying.
The gap for Labour right now is economic competence and leadership in the south. Which is a hard gap to fit into and would send the membership into fits.
Genuinely think you’ve got to wait for Johnson to get bored and wander off at this point.
Thing is that the Tories are smart enough to know to rally together at elections and then fight amongst themselves when they have the power.
Labour (and the left in general) fight amongst themselves before they get the power, so it's likes the two bald men fighting over a comb. One side wants to do it their way, the other wants to do it differently but the reality is that neither of them get to do it at all.
The Lib Dems and Labour are totally different parties. Many Lib Dems are not going to just vote labour if they stood down. If Labour stand down from any seats they are finished as a political party
When I'm Grand Emperor of the United Kingdom (it will happen). I shall bring in two laws at the start of my reignFor anyone to implement PR they’d first have to win under FPTP. Which means they will have had a cat in hells chance and therefore won’t want to change it. See Labour in 97 where PR was in the manifesto.
When I'm Grand Emperor of the United Kingdom (it will happen). I shall bring in two laws at the start of my reign
PR and compulsory voting.
The current system is not fit for purpose.
We need a written constitution enshrined in law too. The current gentleman’s agreement only works if the ruling party behaves gentlemanly. To be clear I’m not just talking about the current government. Would have been nice if we’d had a written constitution when Blair presented his dodgy dossier on Iraq that meant he would have received some sort of retribution for deliberately lying and misleading parliament damaging the very fabric of our democracy.When I'm Grand Emperor of the United Kingdom (it will happen). I shall bring in two laws at the start of my reign
PR and compulsory voting.
The current system is not fit for purpose.
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