Do you want to discuss boring politics? (20 Viewers)

skybluetony176

Well-Known Member
Profits are up because house prices keep rising because supply is constrained.

The Persimmon story was about materials and labour shortages and planning backlogs. If they could make money today why wouldn’t they?

For your theory to be credible (and I’m telling you having worked in property development it’s not), there would have to either be a massive conspiracy that involves every builder large and small, or the level of house building would correlate with market conditions. It doesn’t. Check the data. House builders have been building roughly the same amount since the 50s.
Because they need to make more next year and the next year and the next year etc etc when shareholders will be expecting more dividends. I worked for Westburys as a sub contractor when Persimmons brought them out. Talking to the management I knew at the time Directors couldn’t believe what was being offered to them it was so high, the reason persimmons wanted them was for their land bank which at the time was believed to be the largest in the industry. Within a decade that high price they paid for it looked like a steal.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
1700817276012.jpeg

the big drop off is LA builds. But otherwise it’s been around the same level give or take a few ten thousand. You aren’t going to get the numbers without either lots of LA building or planning reform. Blaming house builders is a nonsense.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
View attachment 32489

the big drop off is LA builds. But otherwise it’s been around the same level give or take a few ten thousand. You aren’t going to get the numbers without either lots of LA building or planning reform. Blaming house builders is a nonsense.

The housebuilders do not meet the level of demand for housing, that's effectively what the graph is showing as there is no replacement for the drop off in LA building - the big housebuilders represent 90% of the market. They are constructing less dwellings than they were even when mass council house building was happening!

Here is a table showing the volume of planning apps for major residential developments:

1700828365478.png
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
The housebuilders do not meet the level of demand for housing, that's effectively what the graph is showing as there is no replacement for the drop off in LA building - the big housebuilders represent 90% of the market. They are constructing less dwellings than they were even when mass council house building was happening!

Here is a table showing the volume of planning apps for major residential developments:

View attachment 32490

Yeah exactly my point. There’s a limit of private build and it’s a mixture of labour, materials, and planning law. If they could build twice as many home and make twice as much money they would.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
This is like that old meme about ever lasting light bulbs and how big light bulb was keeping them from us to make money.
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
He’s so weird. He looks like an alien from another planet when he tries to fit in with normal people.

Which, I suppose, is exactly what he is.
 

stupot07

Well-Known Member
He doesn't know how to use a debit card, he doesn't know how to use a petrol pump, and now it transpires that he doesn't know how to use a hammer....and this guy is running our country.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

PVA

Well-Known Member
Well that’s a little disappointing.

Still, being told how to use a hammer by a woman won’t go down well with a lot of the Tory base!
 

David O'Day

Well-Known Member
The VVD declining to enter coalition talks is bad news for him, he really needed them or the red/green alliance and the red/green alliance are talking about being in opposition.

Chance the coalition talks could be longer than the last one which was 298 days.
 

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
Is it really necessary for this fuck wit to give the dog whistle politics some more credence?
I was looking at population growth earlier today and it's actually slowed down the last few years, possibly COVID related to an extent but was slowing before that. It's similar to peer countries.

With an ageing population you need ever more working people to meet their needs, what's the answer?


Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
Well that’s a little disappointing.

Still, being told how to use a hammer by a woman won’t go down well with a lot of the Tory base!
Not really, because it still shows he has no idea how to use a hammer. If he did he'd have just ignored her and used it correctly.

Hope next time he's asked to apply some striped paint and if he knows how to use a long weight.
 

Sky_Blue_Dreamer

Well-Known Member
View attachment 32489

the big drop off is LA builds. But otherwise it’s been around the same level give or take a few ten thousand. You aren’t going to get the numbers without either lots of LA building or planning reform. Blaming house builders is a nonsense.
But that proves my point that we need to get the public sector involved in housebuilding again.

While there is truth in problems with planning laws and restrictions and land availability, it doesn't explain it all. The LA's went out of the game completely in order to give the private companies more to work with. Land, resources and labour used by LA's become available to the private companies because, according to privatisation, they can build houses better and cheaper. They aren't. Prices are going up way beyond earnings. They're building them to make themselves the most profit possible.

Follow the money. Of course they can't build no houses because they'd make no money. But equally they can't build loads because their profit margin will decrease due to supply and demand. So they work out what level of building will give them the highest profit margin and that's why they build roughly the same amount of houses year on year. It's what they've worked out maintains the profit margin. Ferrari don't build millions of cars a year even though loads of people would like one because they wouldn't make as much profit. They'd make more revenue, but less profit, and that's what they care about.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
But that proves my point that we need to get the public sector involved in housebuilding again.

While there is truth in problems with planning laws and restrictions and land availability, it doesn't explain it all. The LA's went out of the game completely in order to give the private companies more to work with. Land, resources and labour used by LA's become available to the private companies because, according to privatisation, they can build houses better and cheaper. They aren't. Prices are going up way beyond earnings. They're building them to make themselves the most profit possible.

Follow the money. Of course they can't build no houses because they'd make no money. But equally they can't build loads because their profit margin will decrease due to supply and demand. So they work out what level of building will give them the highest profit margin and that's why they build roughly the same amount of houses year on year. It's what they've worked out maintains the profit margin. Ferrari don't build millions of cars a year even though loads of people would like one because they wouldn't make as much profit. They'd make more revenue, but less profit, and that's what they care about.

Why would it be a consistent amount regardless of market conditions then?

This conspiracy stuff just doesn’t stack up in a free market. There are huge amounts of people willing to build, people don’t just buy Ferraris. The problem for all of them is getting planning permission. I used to work with big developers on strategic land acquisition. I regularly spoke to land buyers at Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, and big HAs like Bromford. I asked about this stuff and to a man got laughter and “why on earth would we do that?” As a response.

They all want big sites because that’s where their economies of scale pay off but there’s a huge long tail of SMEs who want to build 1-10 plots and can’t get the land or the permission. The planning system is a mess that makes it virtually impossible to know up front what will get permission and what won’t.
 

dutchman

Well-Known Member
This is like that old meme about ever lasting light bulbs and how big light bulb was keeping them from us to make money.
There was actually some truth in that.

Bulbs were deliberately manufactured to burn out twice as fast as was strictly necessary.

Also there was an agreement between all the manufacturers to limit the total number of light bulbs sold to keep prices artificially high.
 

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
There was actually some truth in that.

Bulbs were deliberately manufactured to burn out twice as fast as was strictly necessary.

Also there was an agreement between all the manufacturers to limit the total number of light bulbs sold to keep prices artificially high.

In the 50s!
 

Evo1883

Well-Known Member
One of my more weird beliefs is if the government forces you by law to do something it should have to provide the cheapest option that conforms to the law.

Were all forced to buy car insurance and we all get fucked on it.
We never used to , when did it become acceptable to punish people for driving correctly.. they are thieves
 

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
Mr car insurance has gone up this year because Mrs Wisdom is a named driver and was driven into, with the police as witnesses, so entirely on the other driver without contest.

How does that work?!? Especially as we both have protected no claims!

Didn’t think that would end up on impacting your policy ? You sure is wasn’t Mrs Ws dodgy driving ?!!

Car insurance firms are scum bags but also think the amount of car theft and damage to vehicles has led to some of the increases in certain locations. It certainly impacted mine in my area…not surprised to see West Mids police put in special measures…useless.
 
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nicksar

Well-Known Member
Mr car insurance has gone up this year because Mrs Wisdom is a named driver and was driven into, with the police as witnesses, so entirely on the other driver without contest.

How does that work?!? Especially as we both have protected no claims!
It's wrong of course but they calculate that statistically your more likely to make further claims,it's happened to me as well.
 

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