EFL Decision on Coventry’s future expected today (3 Viewers)

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Wycombe’s chairman would prefer end the season over games beyond closed doors

Wycombe chief Rob Couhig prefers end to season over games behind closed doors

If they go PPG Wycombe shoot up the table and could end up being promoted if no play-offs even though they're currently outside play off places

 

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[better days]

Am I missing something here? Surely every division wouldn't have increased number of teams.

The PL would, however the 3 promoted teams from L1 would replace the 3 promoted teams into the Championship, and would be replaced in L1 by the top 3 of L2.

Sorry my first post should have said only the PL and L2 would have more teams
That's right providing the same formula was used through the divisions but these are only outline proposals if games can't be played
The big thing though is that there will be promotions but no relegations
There are no easy answers
A lot will depend on how things go in the next week or 10 days

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

There seems to be a lot of double standards being promoted. Construction sites around the UK are working or returning to work. You just have to see the HS2 sites to witness workers not socially distancing and there thousands of them!
So to pick out football as being unsafe in comparison is bonkers.

There is the issue of influence over society though.

Few people will look at Dave the bricklayer and thinks "we'll if he's not following the guidelines I'm not". In fact few people will even see him at all.

Make it Harry Kane on a football field spending all day grappling with a centre back with millions watching online and it's a different story.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I don't wish to keep repeating myself and all options are valid .
Quarantine means isolation followed by testing followed by playing matches and remaining quarantined until season completes.
Astronaut's Go through this every time they leave the planet.

Footballers aren't astronauts though. They're young men who have a tendency to be impetuous and increasingly self-important given their wealth and influence.

We've had issues before at world cups where managers have said the biggest problem is keeping them entertained over the tournament because they have some form of guidelines/curfew on movement/behaviour. But nothing like what would be required here. No way the players would be able to stick to it. Already had quite a few stories of them not keeping to guidelines and calls about mental health have skyrocketed.

 

[Liquid Gold]

From off the record comments I've heard the most likely solution if games can't be completed is that finishing places will be decided on 'sporting merit'
And that promotions will be as usual but there won't be any relegation
So all divisions will have extra teams next season with more clubs being relegated to bring the numbers per division back to how they are now
Probably the least worst solution

Although probably the least worst scenario and something I'd snap your hand off for now I would feel mildly irritated that Bolton 'got away with one'.

 

[better days]

Although probably the least worst scenario and something I'd snap your hand off for now I would feel mildly irritated that Bolton 'got away with one'.

Can't argue but I guess when a club is in the state Bolton find themselves it's only likely to delay things for another season

 

[COVKIDSNEVERQUIT]

The legal action thing is a bit of a red herring as I doubt it’s possible to sue the EFL

Agree , if Clubs did go to court the Judge will probably rule in favour of the EFL as the pandemic was not of their making .

 

[thekidfromstrettoncamp]

If they go PPG Wycombe shoot up the table and could end up being promoted if no play-offs even though they're currently outside play off places

If they do PPG surely they would have to do it home and away seperately as most teams have a better home record than away(i e Wycombe home PPG at the moment is 2.33 from 18 Away 1.062 from 16 ) . If it's done that way I make it they would be on the same points as Portsmouth and Peterboro but would have to increase their goal difference a lot. May have got my figures wrong but like I said many times on here a right minefield I would not want to be the 1 doing it.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

Agree , if Clubs did go to court the Judge will probably rule in favour of the EFL as the pandemic was not of their making .

Exactly. I've recently briefly spoken to lawyers in my network just to get their two cents on the matter as legalities are far from my strong suit and they've said with confidence it would be difficult for clubs/chairmen to build any sort of case whatsoever against the EFL or other clubs due to the unprecedented nature of the current times as the rule book has effectively been ripped to shreds. In normal circumstances they would of course have a case but in this situation it may not be so straightforward, especially due to the countless loopholes the defendants are likely to find which would probably halt the case in its tracks before it even took off.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Exactly. I've recently briefly spoken to lawyers in my network just to get their two cents on the matter as legalities are far from my strong suit and they've said with confidence it would be difficult for clubs/chairmen to build any sort of case whatsoever against the EFL or other clubs due to the unprecedented nature of the current times as the rule book has effectively been ripped to shreds. In normal circumstances they would of course have a case but in this situation it may not be so straightforward, especially due to the countless loopholes the defendants are likely to find which would probably halt the case in its tracks before it even took off.

But they could also claim the situation arose because the EFl hadn't planned for the possibility, so they are still at fault for not setting out guidelines and thus liable.

I've got no idea which way any of these cases would go. It's usually safer to err on side of defendant as onus of proof is on the claimant ( innocent until proven guilty and all that) but civil cases have a much lower requirement - reasonable doubt.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

But they could also claim the situation arose because the EFl hadn't planned for the possibility, so they are still at fault for not setting out guidelines and thus liable.

I've got no idea which way any of these cases would go. It's usually safer to err on side of defendant as onus of proof is on the claimant ( innocent until proven guilty and all that) but civil cases have a much lower requirement - reasonable doubt.

How can you claim from a legal POV the EFL should've predicted that a pandemic would've halted the season?

That's literally like saying the EFL would be liable if the season was halted due to an alien invasion because there were no policies in place to mitigate the fallout from such a scenario.

 

[Magwitch]

If they do PPG surely they would have to do it home and away seperately as most teams have a better home record than away(i e Wycombe home PPG at the moment is 2.33 from 18 Away 1.062 from 16 ) . If it's done that way I make it they would be on the same points as Portsmouth and Peterboro but would have to increase their goal difference a lot. May have got my figures wrong but like I said many times on here a right minefield I would not want to be the 1 doing it.

Don’t think so it would be how you have done in matches played, take us if I’ve got the maths right we have dropped 12 points against the bottom eight teams, two of our three defeats came from that group.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

How can you claim from a legal POV the EFL should've predicted that a pandemic would've halted the season?

That's literally like saying the EFL would be liable if the season was halted due to an alien invasion because there were no policies in place to mitigate the fallout from such a scenario.

They would claim there should be a catch all clause saying if the season cannot be finished for unforeseen circumstances this is what will happen. Not like there is no precedent as stuff got cancelled for WWII so guidelines should have been put in place then..

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

They would claim there should be a catch all clause saying if the season cannot be finished for unforeseen circumstances this is what will happen. Not like there is no precedent as stuff got cancelled for WWII so guidelines should have been put in place then..

Matches got cancelled because all the men were at war or dead as a result of the war? There's no solution that could've been dreamt up to solve that and it still can't.

You can't enact a catch all scenario because every scenario might be different. The amount of loopholes would be endless.

 

[chiefdave]

Agree , if Clubs did go to court the Judge will probably rule in favour of the EFL as the pandemic was not of their making .

Judges don't rule in favour of what is morally right, if they did SISU would be wiping the floor with the council!

They rule based on the facts so the EFL would need to point to the rules of the competition that support their actions. Is there anything in the rules that says a season can be concluded early and / or anything to prevent a season being suspended and completed at a later date?

Think legal action by clubs would be the least of their worries. There will be cases to return payments for broadcasting rights, sponsorship, advertising, even season ticket payments.

 

[wingy]

Is there a potential here to see a return to financial sanity at the top level
Can the media Moguls continue to feed the level of involvement previously or need to tighten belts.
Will the behemoths go it alone and market their own channels.
And will the utterly obscene salaries that suck out 100+% from clubs income end.
It's all very precarious but moreso at the profligate zenith.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

Ligue 1: Paris St-Germain awarded French title as season finished early

PSG awarded Ligue 1 title
Lorient crowned Ligue 2 champions

 

[chiefdave]

You can't enact a catch all scenario because every scenario might be different.

You can easily have a rule regarding what happens if fixtures can't be completed.

1) all fixtures must be completed by June 30
2) if fixtures can't be completed by June 30 the season is void / current positions stand / PPG / no promotion relegation / some other solution

Doesn't really matter what you choose the outcome to be or what causes the rule to be invoked it would be very easy to put in place.

A lawyer could also argue this wasn't unforeseen given it has been high on the list of possibilities in the National Risk Register for years.

 

[Philosoraptor]

I don't understand what the problem is with working out who should be promoted and relegated from the various divisions if the season doesn't continue.

PPG is definetly not the best way to work this out.

PPG's obvious flaw is the following: if you have two teams of similar abilities in a league, then the team that has predominantly played others at the lower end of division will have a higher PPG, through positive results, then a team with similar ability who has played others at the top end of division, through negative results.

This is the flaw to ending the double 'round robin' setup early which most sports federations use.

There is of course another way to work this stuff out.

Whilst complicated, Glicko-2 is the best way to sort this issue out through an adjudication of the leagues if the season can't continue.

The season, in my opinion, should be played in full. However, if a lot of money is riding on promotion and relegation, and for whatever reason the season can't continue, then shouldn't everyone be looking for the fairest way to bring the season to a close.

Glicko-2 is not perfect but it is much more reliable then using PPG, especially in this sporting environment of an unfinished double 'round robin' tournament.

 

[Liquid Gold]

I don't understand what the problem is with working out who should be promoted and relegated from the various divisions if the season doesn't continue.

PPG is definetly not the best way to work this out.

PPG's obvious flaw is the following: if you have two teams of similar abilities in a league, then the team that has predominantly played others at the lower end of division will have a higher PPG, through positive results, then a team which has played others at the top end of division, through negative results.

This is the flaw to ending the 'round robin' setup early which most sports uses.

There is of course another way to work this stuff out.

Whilst complicated, Glicko-2 is the best way to sort this issue out through an adjudication of the leagues if the season can't continue.

The season, in my opinion, should be played in full. However, if a lot of money is riding on promotion and relegation, and for whatever reason the season can't continue, then shouldn't everyone be looking for the fairest way to bring the season to a close.

Shocker that you think your own system is the best way of working things out.

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

You can easily have a rule regarding what happens if fixtures can't be completed.

1) all fixtures must be completed by June 30
2) if fixtures can't be completed by June 30 the season is void / current positions stand / PPG / no promotion relegation / some other solution

Doesn't really matter what you choose the outcome to be or what causes the rule to be invoked it would be very easy to put in place.

A lawyer could also argue this wasn't unforeseen given it has been high on the list of possibilities in the National Risk Register for years.

In that respect yes it's enactable. But going back to the initial point about how viable it is for clubs/chairmen to sue others for not completing this season, it's inevitably going to be difficult - regardless of whether a catch-all clause is/was in place or not.

With respect CD I've spoken to a few lawyer friends in my network to get their two cents on the matter and they've agreed that building a case would be extremely complicated and convoluted. Personally I'll take their view.

 

[Philosoraptor]

Shocker that you think your own system is the best way of working things out.

The best explanation of Elo on the net is here.



Glicko-2 was made to sort out some of the issue with Elo which I am sure a person of your capability could share with the group.

It certainly isn't my system. If you want to find more about the history of ratings then this would be a good place to start.

Elo rating system - Wikipedia

Running this stuff (Glicko-2) for City's current season will get you close to this (I am using a Glicko-2 variant but this is what everyone does outside FICS for Glicko).



It's much more accurate then PPG. It sorts out the problems you have with ending a 'round robin' early.

I'll also leave this link here if you don't know what a double 'round robin' is. Just in case.

Round-robin tournament - Wikipedia

Edit: Oh, and this is FIFA using Elo.

Wayback Machine

 

[thekidfromstrettoncamp]

Don’t think so it would be how you have done in matches played, take us if I’ve got the maths right we have dropped 12 points against the bottom eight teams, two of our three defeats came from that group.

PPG is an average on games you have played not how you've done in those games .

 

[Frank Sidebottom]

Seems fairly obvious now that we won't be finishing this season.
This seems a fairer alternative to PPG.

Although as long as its not voided, There's literally no way we cannot be promoted.
Think it all depends on what the Prem decide to do.

 

[SlowerThanPlatt]

Seems fairly obvious now that we won't be finishing this season.
This seems a fairer alternative to PPG.

Although as long as its not voided, There's literally no way we cannot be promoted.
Think it all depends on what the Prem decide to do.

Not really. Rotherham in 6th? If it was us in 6th I imagine the view would be rather different

 

[Magwitch]

PPG is an average on games you have played not how you've done in those games .

It’s points per games played that’s why Wycombe for example would shoot up from eighth to third.

 

[fernandopartridge]

The best explanation of Elo on the net is here.



Glicko-2 was made to sort out some of the issue with Elo which I am sure a person of your capability could share with the group.

It certainly isn't my system. If you want to find more about the history of ratings then this would be a good place to start.

Elo rating system - Wikipedia

Running this stuff (Glicko-2) for City's current season will get you close to this (I am using a Glicko-2 variant):



It's much more accurate then PPG. It sorts out the problems you have with ending a 'round robin' early.

I'll also leave this link here if you don't know what a 'round robin' is. Just in case.

Round-robin tournament - Wikipedia

The ends justify the means!

 

[RegTheDonk]

Is there a potential here to see a return to financial sanity at the top level
Can the media Moguls continue to feed the level of involvement previously or need to tighten belts.
Will the behemoths go it alone and market their own channels.
And will the utterly obscene salaries that suck out 100+% from clubs income end.
It's all very precarious but moreso at the profligate zenith.

You would like to think so wingy, perhaps the TV people will suffer a financial loss during this and make them rethink the next round of bidding wars. When it was just Sky with deep pockests it was bad enough, but with BT on board and the potential buckets Amazon could put in, the beast will probably continue to be fed.

I'm surprised to be honest it hasn't imploded due to free streams, that must be hitting them to some degree. But as long as the broadcasters are daft enough to pay these prices, it will continue. What I would love to see, as this pandemic has shown just how fragile clubs are outside of the PL, is a greater filtering down of these huge sums to keep the smaller clubs going. We get crumbs, surely they could afford to let us have a whole loaf.

 

[wingy]

You would like to think so wingy, perhaps the TV people will suffer a financial loss during this and make them rethink the next round of bidding wars. When it was just Sky with deep pockests it was bad enough, but with BT on board and the potential buckets Amazon could put in, the beast will probably continue to be fed.

I'm surprised to be honest it hasn't imploded due to free streams, that must be hitting them to some degree. But as long as the broadcasters are daft enough to pay these prices, it will continue. What I would love to see, as this pandemic has shown just how fragile clubs are outside of the PL, is a greater filtering down of these huge sums to keep the smaller clubs going. We get crumbs, surely they could afford to let us have a whole loaf.

Be lovely in theory RTD wouldn't it but I don't see the players readily accepting a much more rational package , along with the ambitions of owners represented through their parent league
Oh well.

 

[thekidfromstrettoncamp]

It’s points per games played that’s why Wycombe for example would shoot up from eighth to third.

While I agree it is points per game surely you have to split home and away because if you don't you get a very uneven reading.I quoted Wycombe picked up 39 point at home from19 games and 17 away from 16 games even if they picked up 6 point from the 2away games (which form says they wouldn't) 23 against 39. Do you think that is a fair way to do it?

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

The EFL would be liable if the season was halted due to an alien invasion because there were no policies in place to mitigate the fallout from such a scenario.

Right - let's do a repeat of the panic that started when the BBC played HG Wells' ' War of the Worlds' THE ALIENS ARE COMING !!!

 

[thekidfromstrettoncamp]

wingy and Reg The Donk I think the bubble is going to burst first if the season is not finished Premier League will owe the media £762 million in games not played.The likes of Norwich would go broke if it was equally divided (£38million each).When this last round games were sold the price per game was 9.1 milion per game the previous round 12,1 more games less cash.

 

[thekidfromstrettoncamp]

Right - let's do a repeat of the panic that started when the BBC played HG Wells' ' War of the Worlds' THE ALIENS ARE COMING !!!

Your right seen some the other day strange people with a bee or something that looked like 1 on the tops.

 

[ccfc1234]

If they go PPG Wycombe shoot up the table and could end up being promoted if no play-offs even though they're currently outside play off places

Top 2 only I would suggest is fair. No one who would have been in the playoffs can say they were hard done to as they are a lottery in themselves.

 

[wingy]

Your right seen some the other day strange people with a bee or something that looked like 1 on the tops.

Hehe.