Studying relegation targets was a regular thing of mine for many , many, many years when Coventry were in top flight.
So thought I would look at Rotherham list of games and come up with a view on what might happen overall it has ended up being a long post.
Rotherham fixtures are NOT that daunting in my view with so many in Yorkshire
Sat 20 March Bristol City A - Bristol very unpredictable
Fri 02 April Millwall A - Classic middle of table going nowhere club. OK never an easy place to play but 13 days for Rotherham covid
struck players to recover
Mon 05 April Wycombe H - Very likely win here for Rotherham and start of a big run of games solely in Yorkshire
Sat 10 April Huddersfield A - Tough game , likely both teams would be happy with a draw
Tue 13 April QPR H - Playing a team already it seems perhaps on their holiday. Likely win or draw
Sat 17 April Birmingham H - Vital game - too hard to predict
Wed 21 April Middlesboro H - Not an easy game but not that daunting. Its still a home midweek match which is an advantage
Sat 24 April Barnsley A - Tough game at 'Sky Reds' . Its a south Yorkshire Derby, a draw a definite possibility which would be ok for both
Tue 27 April Brentford A - Very tough game and likely defeat
Sat 01 May Blackburn H - Another game against a middle of table going nowhere club but can be Blackburn can be useful. Tricky to
predict but Rotherham wont be quaking in their boots for this one
Tue 04 May Luton A - Depends on Luton mentality on this one.
Sat 08 May Cardiff A - Not an easy place to go generally and a very tricky last game for Rotherham
Unknown Coventry H - Vital game but will fancy their chances big time if they can score first and will also be a midweek game
Looking at this schedule to me at least, highlights a lot of games but a massive chunk in Yorkshire (8 of 13) . I expect they would be happy to get a point or perhaps 2 in next two away games and than put massive effort from 5th April to 24th April. Coventry should aim to play them on Thu April 29 and move Huddersfield away a day back to to Sunday 02 as Rotherham in London on prior Tuesday night .
By avoiding playing Coventry when so many players were ill and not fit, may have been 'engineered' NOT to happen. Vast bulk of games now will be tough but after Easter and with international break beforehand there is big chance to for players to get fit and have 4 out of 5 games at home. If they squeeze Coventry game in that period it would be 5 out of 6.
My estimate for them is 19 points and that's 51 overall. Can the Sky Blues match 51?
A quick summary on race to match that predicted 51 points for Rotherham
Huddersfield - need 9 form 9 games - fairly easy statistically as they current average about a point a game over season
Nottm F - need 10 from 9 games - fairly easy statistically as they current average about a point a game over season
Derby - need 11 from 9 games - not too difficult
Coventry - need 13 from 10 games not too difficult
Birmingham - need 13 from 9 games - not easy but definitely do-able although they have a tough run in
Rotherham - need 19 from 13 games as discussed
Sheff W - need 22 from 10 games - very unlikely
Wycombe - need 25 from 9 games - no chance
I did say 53 would secure safety 52 might be enough but unless Birmingham and Rotherham crumble I still think it safety total will be higher than people think and in the 50's.
Trying to make sense of my analysis to get to 51 points to stay up and what actually happened. No Guarantee I have these all the totals correct!
Huddersfield - need 9 form 9 games - fairly easy statistically - Gained 7 - Finished on 49 Slightly disappointing
Nottingham F - need 10 from 9 games - fairly easy statistically - Gained 11 - Finished on 52 As required
Derby - need 11 from 9 games - not too difficult - Gained 4 - Finished on 44 Totally dreadful end
Coventry - need 13 from 10 games not too difficult - Gained 17 - Finished on 55 Brilliant impressive end
Birmingham - need 13 from 9 games - not easy but definitely do-able - Gained 14 - Finished on 52 Equally brilliant just tailed off when safe
Rotherham - need 19 from 13 games as discussed - Gained 10 - Finished on 42 Very disappointing end
Sheff W - need 22 from 10 games - very unlikely - Gained 12 - Finished on 41 Reasonable end
Wycombe - need 25 from 9 games - no chance - Gained 17 - Finished on 43 Brilliant impressive end but under no pressure
I got the safety total wrong by amazingly 7 points but in my defence the terrible form of Derby and Rotherham made the final total much lower than it should of been. Typically relegation threatened teams do a lot better than those two clubs. I would expect at a minimum they both should have gained at least 5 or 6 extra points making the 'natural' safety points total for this season being 48/49.
So the big movers were Birmingham City, Wycombe Wanderers and Coventry City.
The biggest imploding team was Bristol City who picked up 6 points from last 13 games (6 from 39 points)
