Expected Goals Against (1 Viewer)

[shmmeee]

Agreed that the stats don’t take ‘game state’ into account and because we’ve conceded first so often, we’re chasing games and that would distort the xG somewhat in our favour. Conceding the first goal this season has been absolutely cancerous for our season 14 times in 24 games is only bettered by Hull and Plymouth who look like two poor teams.

Overall, we’re definitely punching below our weight and the numbers show things will pick up. Generally, the xG table will reflect final standing by the end of the season.

I don’t think many are saying we should be 5th because of the xG stats, but when you have so many people whining like children saying how crap our players are, it’s simply not a fair assessment.

With the right additions in Jan, I’m optimistic we can climb up the table.

You still haven’t explained why this only applies to us though. Even behind you have to come back. Not every team does, look at Plymouth. Over a game I really don’t think it matters that much. A chance is a chance. It’s not worth less because you were trying harder or whatever.

 

---

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You still haven’t explained why this only applies to us though. Even behind you have to come back. Not every team does, look at Plymouth. Over a game I really don’t think it matters that much. A chance is a chance. It’s not worth less because you were trying harder or whatever.

I didn’t think it needed to be explained in great detail, to be honest. It’s pretty self evident that the most important goal in a football match is the first goal.

This is backed up statistically and the only teams to concede the first goal more often is Hull and Plymouth. Therefore, it does apply to every team and the teams who concede first tend to be the teams toward the bottom of the table.

The reason I’m making the point is because the overall data metrics have us underperforming whereas we’re one of the worst teams for conceding first and this reduces the chances of winning the game drastically.

The below link is quite dated, but the team who scores first has a 70-odd% of winning and 87-odd% of not losing. I cant imagine this has changed drastically from 2011/12.

The Importance Of Scoring The First Goal Of The Game

I was running over a few numbers for a piece on goals, when they are scored and what the game situation was and I ran into a few numbers about the 1st goal scored and what it meant in the 2011/12...

bitterandblue.sbnation.com

Happy New Year to you and everyone on the forum!

 

[shmmeee]

I didn’t think it needed to be explained in great detail, to be honest. It’s pretty self evident that the most important goal in a football match is the first goal.

This is backed up statistically and the only teams to concede the first goal more often is Hull and Plymouth. Therefore, it does apply to every team and the teams who concede first tend to be the teams toward the bottom of the table.

The reason I’m making the point is because the overall data metrics have us underperforming whereas we’re one of the worst teams for conceding first and this reduces the chances of winning the game drastically.

The below link is quite dated, but the team who scores first has a 70-odd% of winning and 87-odd% of not losing. I cant imagine this has changed drastically from 2011/12.

The Importance Of Scoring The First Goal Of The Game

I was running over a few numbers for a piece on goals, when they are scored and what the game situation was and I ran into a few numbers about the 1st goal scored and what it meant in the 2011/12...

bitterandblue.sbnation.com

Happy New Year to you and everyone on the forum!

Plymouth are second bottom of the xG league…

 

[PVA]

The anti xg guy just comes across as an idiot

the mind boggles

Haha wow that's an incredible quote

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Plymouth are second bottom of the xG league…

Exactly! That’s where they’ll end up too!

On one metric (xG for and against), we’re up near the top of the table. The other, goals conceded first, it’s alongside relegation-bound teams.

 

[shmmeee]

Exactly! That’s where they’ll end up too!

On one metric (xG for and against), we’re up near the top of the table. The other, goals conceded first, it’s alongside relegation-bound teams.

But you said our high xG was because we go behind, so why don’t Plymouth have a high xG?

 

[stupot07]

FFS, typical Cov.

Came from Eccles shit pass

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

But you said our high xG was because we go behind, so why don’t Plymouth have a high xG?

I said ‘distorted’ and the two aren’t mutually exclusive. We’re not a bad side, but we concede the first goal of the game far too early.

Our record when conceding first is 2-4-8 (discounted today but looks like we’ll lose) - 0.3 points per game. 60% of games we’ve conceded first needs to be the first thing we fix.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

But you said our high xG was because we go behind, so why don’t Plymouth have a high xG?

Plymouth are just a shit team, that’s why. They’re bottom of just about every category there is.

I’m sure you watch our games and you can see that when we concede, the team we’re playing often lets us have possession and sits back in solid formation. So we’re going to be having more possession and more shots than if we were level or winning.

 

[shmmeee]

Plymouth are just a shit team, that’s why. They’re bottom of just about every category there is.

I’m sure you watch our games and you can see that when we concede, the team we’re playing often lets us have possession and sits back in solid formation. So we’re going to be having more possession and more shots than if we were level or winning.

Why just us? Teams don’t do that, teams other than us right now generally try and score another if they’re on top, they don’t retreat.

what’s happened is we’ve got a leaky defence so often give a goal away regardless of how the game is going.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Why just us? Teams don’t do that, teams other than us right now generally try and score another if they’re on top, they don’t retreat.

what’s happened is we’ve got a leaky defence so often give a goal away regardless of how the game is going.

Hull are also in a false position based on this. It’s not just us, but we’re 3rd in xG GD and yet we’re 15th in the league. Why would that be the case?

Frankly, it’s all about the first goal in match. Why?

When we score first, our record is 5-2-2 which is 1.89 PPG (which is quite low). The problem, we’ve only scored first in 9 games out 25. We’ve only lost 2 games from a winning position, Sheff W and Portsmouth.

Compare that to the games we concede the first goal, our record is 2-5-8 with a 0.73 PPG.

If we score first, our form is near automatic promotion form and relegation form when we concede first. That’s how we are the massive statistical outlier this season I’m afraid.

 

[shmmeee]

Hull are also in a false position based on this. It’s not just us, but we’re 3rd in xG GD and yet we’re 15th in the league. Why would that be the case?

Frankly, it’s all about the first goal in match. Why?

When we score first, our record is 5-2-2 which is 1.89 PPG (which is quite low). The problem, we’ve only scored first in 9 games out 25. We’ve only lost 2 games from a winning position, Sheff W and Portsmouth.

Compare that to the games we concede the first goal, our record is 2-5-8 with a 0.73 PPG.

If we score first, our form is near automatic promotion form and relegation form when we concede first. That’s how we are the massive statistical outlier this season I’m afraid.

That’s a different point. If we weren’t creating chances then fair enough, but we’re not taking our chances.

 

[JoeCCFCPUSB]

We concede alot of goals because our centre backs are fucking shit.

No surprises.

 

[Evo1883]