I started off thinking it was fear and playing too deep but in the last few games it's clear it's tactical, Robins even hinted at it with his 'we need to earn the right to play our football in the 2nd half comment' (that's not verbatim). I disagree with the moving the ball side to side bit though, think that's a symptom rather than a decision - with Doyle and Kelly so deep there's no-one to pass to centrally so we're forced to go side to side (or long, which happens quite a lot in the first half of games). I don't like it at all and it's properly doing my head in as a tactic for a few reasons:
* We're limiting ourselves to winning the game in one half which is hard to do against a team that is happy to settle for a point - which will be most teams we play against this season. We only look genuinely good when we get that first goal and the opposition chases the game, plays attacking football and tries to win (e.g. Notts County, Carlisle, Exeter). In 9 league games so far this season we've only scored 2 goals in the first half (Notts County and Port Vale).
* It's been a tactic to the detriment of the players who seem to be getting singled out for criticism - Beavon, Vincenti and the strikers in general.
* It's making the first half of games very boring - we're completely predictable in them: Lump the ball at Vincenti or get the ball early to Jodi Jones or Doyle/the back 4 play a loose 40 yard hopeful lob somewhere into the box.
* We're like a boxer jabbing away then going for a knockout in round 9 when he's softened his opponent up. Well this division is gash and I genuinely believe we've got a squad that could challenge for autos if we attacked from the off. Some teams are there for knocking out in the first round.
Fortune favours the brave and I'd like to see Robins be a bit braver earlier in some games otherwise I fear it will be play-offs not autos.
I did try to demonstrate the enormous hole it leaves between the strikers and midfield on a tactics board the other week after the Carlisle game (apologies for the cut and paste to those who read it before) and gave my take on the impact it has on the team:
The Set up
* So firstly our back 4 has been playing pretty deeply so far this season, probably through fear of the long ball over the top.
* Jones (7) plays quite high and wide whereas Vincenti (11) is usually a bit deeper and wide and his height used as an outlet from goal kicks.
* Doyle (8) and Kelly (6) have been very deep protecting the back 4 and picking up the 2nd ball and knock downs when the opposition send the ball long.
* Jones' forward position on the pitch leaves a lot of room for Grimmer (2) to get forward (see blue arrow), which is why he has appeared much more attacking than Stokes who doesn't look fit enough to go past Vincenti consistently.
* Our strikers have played quite classically - McNulty (9) a bit higher than Beavon (10) who has mostly tried to move defenders around with lateral movement.
The consequences
On top of our formation I've then dropped some random red opposition, set up for a long ball draw - 2 banks of 4 not far from their own box with 2 big lumps (9 and 10) to aim at. I've then futher highlighted in the red oval, the absolutely huge gap in the middle of the pitch that it leaves us.
* It's easy for 'Red 3' to step up (red arrow) and double up on Jones (7) together with 'Red 11' which is why he was stifled for a few games (Newport onwards). Ideally you'd want Grimmer (2) going past Jones (7) so that he takes a man away from Jones leaving him 1 on 1 but a combination of the deep defence and Jones' high positioning means he's got an awful long way to go each time. Quite often then Jones either dribbles unsupported into 2 players or checks and plays backwards to Grimmer. Kelly (6) in the meantime drops into Grimmer's hole at right back as cover and so momentum completely breaks down as the only pass inside is to Doyle who can have 'Red 6, 8 and 9' on him by then or back into the back 4.
* Kelly or Doyle then get the ball from the back 4 just short of halfway but there's no blue shirt in the oval to pass to, so they play what looks like a nice looking 30 yard pass onto Vincenti's (11) head, but he's completely isolated (Stokes doesn't support, no pass inside as Kelly and Doyle are deep and miles away) so no-one gets onto his knock downs and people start to think he's shit.
* Another consequence: Beavon starts dropping deeper and deeper for the ball. The gap is now huge between our strikers and Beavon is still surrounded by Red 6 and 8 plus his marker Red 5 if he goes with him.
The fix
A lot of people (me included) were calling for Andreu in midfield at the expense of Doyle or Kelly but Robins clearly wants them both there for defensive cover and experience and after 5 clean sheets in 7 games you can't really blame him. Robins has definitely recognised the issue we have in breaking teams down though - in the last two games he's made tactical changes at half time to try and combat it, mainly by pushing the defence higher up the pitch which squashes the red oval by bringing the whole team closer together. He's also spoken in interviews too of the need for the back 4 to be braver. It worked yesterday - Kelly's through ball and Nazon's finish will get the plaudits but it was Vincenti who threaded the ball through to Kelly in the first place and it was possible because Kelly was for once higher than Vincenti on the pitch.
The conclusion
We're going to find more teams playing like Newport/Port Vale than we are like Carlisle and we're still to really play well, start high or look incisive against a long ball team at 0-0. As Robins said we really are going to need to be braver against these teams to consistently take maximum points of them.
If anyone read all of that, thanks and have a medal!
