Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
The Scottish situation again highlights what a difference tactical voting could make. In essence far too many seats are too close to call in this model.
General Election 2019 thread (20 Viewers)
- Thread starter Philosoraptor
- Start date
The Scottish situation again highlights what a difference tactical voting could make. In essence far too many seats are too close to call in this model.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
I saw this online earlier but didn't post it as I couldn't verify it. Notice the woman's story has also changed from she was hacked to she copied someone else's post.
It also seems that the same fake story was being put out on twitter by hundreds of bot accounts at the same time.
SeaSeeEffCee
Well-Known Member
Oh well, the idiots lapped it up already. I noticed that the posters on here who were treating it like it was fact haven't rushed to apologise for spreading misinformation have they.
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
Yes - but they’ve deviated from that model.
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
This is why turnout in the young can have a massive impact.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
In what way?
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
Weighting for voting by age groups... they’ve played down younger vote and overstated (less so) turnout in older people.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Still haven’t made my mind up. Will definitely turn up but will either be a spoiled ballot or Labour vote.
stupot07
Well-Known Member
I think it says a lot more about the Tories, that his so called 'friend' would secretly record him then leak it, for political gains.
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Ian1779
Well-Known Member
Don’t give the Tories the satisfaction.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
It may just come down to being a purely anti-Tory vote. More interesting is the possibility of the Fatso losing his seat
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
Some decent tactical voting could see IDS, Swinson, Raab and Johnson out of a seat.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Not sure they're allowing for further gains. Only done a quick calc but it seems to me that Labour have been gaining throughout the whole campaign at a pretty steady rate. If they maintain that past when polling for this MRP finished that potentially takes them to 36 or 37. Doesn't sound much but could be significant in marginals when we're already in the range of a hung parliament.
They also, assuming this is weighted the same as the last MRP they published, seem to have assumed that voter demographics and turnout will be like 2015 rather than 2017. If they are wrong and they are more like 2017, and there is some evidence to suggest they are such as voter registrations (even when allowing for duplicates owning to students needing to register away from uni), that would tend to favour labour. They also seem to be weighting according to Brexit preference but haven't updated from 52/48 despite demographic changes, ie: older voters no longer being with us and younger voters reaching age.
Problem you have when the polls are like this is you're moving into the margin of error and any slight miscalculation could be significant. It will no doubt be a Conservative win but will it be enough to make any significant change from where we were before Johnson decided to have an election?
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
If anything illustrates that possibilities of tactical voting Johnsons seat does. If the Greens and Lib Dems stood down and their votes went largely to Labour he'd be screwed!
Astute
Well-Known Member
I do if they chat shite and make out it is gospel. But the Tories don't get defended for what they have done in the past.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Tweet of the election so far.
Otis
Well-Known Member
Some normally decent posters too.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
have you got a link? It hit 37 billion in October so unless the economy performed miracles in the last 8 weeks, (which is doubtful as it's currently flatlining), I think you're wrong.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Yet it seems to be fine for you to ‘chat shite’ as you have done in the past and in this post.
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Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Don’t worry he just puts anyone he disagrees with on ignore...
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
Or will people consider shopping him to be a despicable act simply typifying the current 'cannot be trusted' vogue being applied to the Tory party daily?
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shmmeee
Well-Known Member
We were worried about Russian interference but the autocratic disinformation campaign is coming from inside the U.K.
If the Tories win this our democracy is fucked. This shit will become normal.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Mate. Get your head out of the sand. This isn’t some petty political thing. The Tory campaign has been disgraceful and full of verifiable lies.
If you want to support that, fine. But don’t pretend it’s made up.
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
Get off your high-horse. The whole campaign across all the parties has descended to the same depths (or even lower) of 20-30yrs ago with petty...yes PETTY tittle-tattle & cheap point scoring.
All have been shown up to have little in terms of credible plans.
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shmmeee
Well-Known Member
No. Objectively you can’t “both sides” this. 88% Tory ads misleading cars 0% Labour is the starkest fact I can give you.
You’ve decided Brexit matters more. Own that.
clint van damme
Well-Known Member
yeah but both sides, yeah but both sides, (repeat ad nauseum until you fool yourself into believing it).
SkyblueBazza
Well-Known Member
So Labour all good, Tory all bad?
Tories have been shown to be lying. Labour claim to have fully costed plans that have been shown to be incredible.
Lesser of two evils & all that...which depends upon which policies have the biggest impact upon you as an individual according to how you prioritise things.
That to you & a few others on here seems to mean they are racist, gullible, stupid, ignorant, selfish etc
If you cannot handle others having different opinions, or cannot handle being able to convince others that your priorities are more important - you should refrain from commenting
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clint van damme
Well-Known Member
the research Shmmeee is on about was conducted by a fact checking organisation called First draft, all their working out is available if you can be bothered to look so I'm not sure what people having different opinions has got to do with it.
Otis
Well-Known Member
Nope. Best he can hope for is a hung parliament.
Otis
Well-Known Member
Yup. Facts, not opinion.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
You're not comparing like with like. Conservatives have been shown to be lying by a non-partisan independent body, the Labour costing plans you say have been shown to be incredible is not fact, there are some who believe them to be incredible but there are literally hundreds of economists who are backing them so its at best debatable. Hardly the same thing as outright lying.
SkyBlueDom26
Well-Known Member
Let’s back Boris tomorrow! And get Brexit done! Don’t want that terrorist sympathiser Corbyn anywhere near number 10
SkyBlueDom26
Well-Known Member
What an idiot you really are