oucho
Well-Known Member
My question is, is it a trend at all?
General Election (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Liquid Gold
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Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Harold Wilson thought so. He said a week is a long time in politics.
oucho
Well-Known Member
Wilson has been dead for 22 years this month, I doubt he has much of an opinion on polling "trends" from the last week or two.
The Tory leads of well above 20% were ridiculous and it seems to me that May got an "election announcement bounce" which has now worked its way out of the polling. Other than the two big polls over Easter, the polling now is consistent with the polling before the announcement, so I would say that if anything, rather than a trend towards Labour, what the polls are saying is that opinion has reverted to the pre-announcement state i.e. settled back down to the pre-announcement normal.
In any case you are right in part - the Tories will be avidly counting the days down, wishing they could have polling day today! They'll be encouraging postal voting amongst their supporters before any late away swing hurts them. Hence the safety first approach. It may bite them, but you can see why they're trying to avoid anything that might trip them up. The public may get bored and turn to other parties, or the CPS thing may destroy the Tory poll lead - but it will need SOMETHING dramatic to prevent an increased Tory majority. At present, the opposition parties do not seem to be anywhere near providing that SOMETHING.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
I've already stated numerous times that I have little faith in them but they are no worse than the current government...for some reason you are reluctant to discuss them
Grendel
Well-Known Member
I've already stated numerous times that I have little faith in them but they are no worse than the current government...for some reason you are reluctant to discuss them
They are a lot worse. Regardless of opinions on Chairman May and her politics (she's really rather a feeble liberal despite her silly posturing) no one can seriously argue a front bench of "ourselves alone" McDonnell, the sneering elitist Thornberry and the ultimate laughing stock Abbott headed up by a dithering clueless Corbyn would do anything other than turn the country into a chaotic banana republic.
oucho
Well-Known Member
For those talking up a "trend towards Labour" in the last few polls (which I argue above couldn't yet be called a 'trend' at all)....2 polls out tonight:
YouGov, for tomorrow's Times:
CON: 48% (+4) LAB: 29% (-2) LDEM: 10% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-1)
Kantar (formerly TNS):
CON: 48% (+2) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 7% (-1)
Tory leads of 19% and 24% - I doubt this will last but all things being even, you'd expect a double-digit lead on polling day. The only thing I can see undoing this for May now is the CPS announcement on prosecution of Tories for expenses declarations at the last election. But on these numbers and with JC as the alternative, the Tory lead looks bomb-proof even against that.
If, as some have predicted, Labour lose hundreds of seats tomorrow in the council elections and also lose the mayoralty votes in West Midlands and Tees Valley, there may well be calls for a last-ditch resignation of JC and a temporary leader being installed to take them through the election.
YouGov, for tomorrow's Times:
CON: 48% (+4) LAB: 29% (-2) LDEM: 10% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-1)
Kantar (formerly TNS):
CON: 48% (+2) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 7% (-1)
Tory leads of 19% and 24% - I doubt this will last but all things being even, you'd expect a double-digit lead on polling day. The only thing I can see undoing this for May now is the CPS announcement on prosecution of Tories for expenses declarations at the last election. But on these numbers and with JC as the alternative, the Tory lead looks bomb-proof even against that.
If, as some have predicted, Labour lose hundreds of seats tomorrow in the council elections and also lose the mayoralty votes in West Midlands and Tees Valley, there may well be calls for a last-ditch resignation of JC and a temporary leader being installed to take them through the election.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
I hope they last and I hope it's a crushing majority for the Conservatives. I've now decided I will vote Conservative for the second time in general ejections. It's pathetic to even suggest a Corbyn led party has the remotest hope of forming a government. This clueless rabble needs destroying so that a sensible opposition can begin again
oucho
Well-Known Member
For once you talk a lot of sense, in fact I agree with every word there (except 'ejections' which nonetheless will be appropriate for many Labour MPs on June 8th including possibly Cunningham)
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
Never mind the polls, there will be a Tory majority of over 100 seats, in fact probably closer to 150.
mrtrench
Well-Known Member
I think we need both. It's important, I think, for the electorate to see how competent the Home Secretary would be if Labour won. She never comes across well IMO, speaks very slowly and repeats the same emotional but factless tripe but is rarely pressed where only a fact will do.
What completely amazes me is that she has a degree from Cambridge. I just cannot reconcile that with her presentation - basically she comes across as rather dim.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
We will all we weeping by 2020
I thought we are turning into a chaotic country anyway since the Brexit catastrophe....
torchomatic
Well-Known Member
Today will be the first election in 30 years I haven't voted in. Due to stuff I didn't sort out a postal vote.
Hope to be able to be out for the general election.
Hope to be able to be out for the general election.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Today will be around twenty years since I last voted in an election. What's the point when it feels like you're voting for management teams instead of an ideology.
I have though been quite excited about the two recent referendums. Isn't it great to see direct democracy in action and politicians actually listening to the public.
I have though been quite excited about the two recent referendums. Isn't it great to see direct democracy in action and politicians actually listening to the public.
Covstu
Well-Known Member
As much as I don't trust the Tories I just cannot buy into what Labour are selling at the moment. They are trying to hard to be all things to everyone (on the street) and have no substance behind it. Big push on bringing power back to unions which is worrying given that most of our industries are no longer Primary sector and more service based so this would push more companies out of the country if there are threats of strikes, collective pay consultations etc (there needs to be a balance of course), Living wage to £10ph is a little unrealistic however I would anticipate that this would be over the 4 years rather than immediately. NHS and police officers I don't disagree with but question affordability...
On the other hand, Tories really not spouting anything of significance either but I do feel that we need to secure businesses within the UK post Brexit rather than make wholesale changes which could drive them away.
In terms of publicity, Labour clearly going for hearts until the latest gaff but I am getting sick of the constant sniping at each party rather than focusing on the actual issues.
On another note, Tories surely could have come up with some good 'May' puns for today being the 4th May!!
On the other hand, Tories really not spouting anything of significance either but I do feel that we need to secure businesses within the UK post Brexit rather than make wholesale changes which could drive them away.
In terms of publicity, Labour clearly going for hearts until the latest gaff but I am getting sick of the constant sniping at each party rather than focusing on the actual issues.
On another note, Tories surely could have come up with some good 'May' puns for today being the 4th May!!
I always vote so had talked myself into it again - but I am seriously considering not doing so this time around. None of the parties give me any hope at all and are out of touch with reality. All they do is politics for politics sake. That shouldn't be what being a public servant is about.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Anybody voting in the mayoral election? I don't live in the West Midlands but there is one in Greater Manchester. As these posts are supposedly something similar to the Mayor of London, the amount of coverage is embarrassing.
The West Midlands ones are so Birmingham-centric too, thanks Coventry City Council for forcing the city into this.
The West Midlands ones are so Birmingham-centric too, thanks Coventry City Council for forcing the city into this.
Covstu
Well-Known Member
And this is why I have not bothered
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Good luck Torch. I'll keep my fingers crossed for that to happen for you.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Because you're happy with whoever you get?
Someone should've run on a "get rid of the WMCA" ticket, they'd probably have won.
Covstu
Well-Known Member
i think the fact that its now greater Birmingham means we are going to get shafted no matter what...
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Seems to be taking a long time to count the votes for what looks like a very low turnout.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Only start at 9am to save money on overtime.
Covstu
Well-Known Member
Maybe the numbers arnt working for them?
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
Looks like the Labour non-entity will win, he is ahead after 1st round in Coventry & Wolverhampton. :emoji_disappointed:
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
24% turnout in Coventry for Mayor. This is a shambles of epic proportions.
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Looks like a higher turnout in Solihull than elsewhere has pulled the Conservative candidate back into it. Its being said that the higher turnout in Solihull is over 65s but I can't trace that back to where it was originally sourced from.
If that holds true we'll probably get the same arguments as with the referendum results starting up.
Ian1779
Well-Known Member
It would be very interesting to see the age demographic of voters in local council elections.
Especially pertinent as there 'appears' to be in a surge in the number of registered voters under 25.
As much as it looks like a rosy picture for the Tories - will that translate the same way come June?
Labour have got to target the youth vote.
Especially pertinent as there 'appears' to be in a surge in the number of registered voters under 25.
As much as it looks like a rosy picture for the Tories - will that translate the same way come June?
Labour have got to target the youth vote.
Captain Dart
Well-Known Member
Street now pulled ahead after polling well in Solihull & Walsall. Could yet go either way.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Dianne Abbott meanwhile continues to have facts at her fingertips.
Diane Abbott suffers another disastrous interview as she massively underestimates Labour's election losses
Diane Abbott suffers another disastrous interview as she massively underestimates Labour's election losses
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
I don't think it matters which way it goes now with the turnout being so low - should the experiment continue?
76% of the electorate in Coventry not wishing to cast their vote for a mayor. The WMCA project is probably dead in the water even before a mayor is announced.
How can you transfer more powers to this flailing scheme?
Should the scheme have the powers it has in the first place?
76% of the electorate in Coventry not wishing to cast their vote for a mayor. The WMCA project is probably dead in the water even before a mayor is announced.
How can you transfer more powers to this flailing scheme?
Should the scheme have the powers it has in the first place?
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Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
I saw no point in it whatsoever and didn't vote. Though I did notice cringeworthy adverts in Brummie accents telling me why I should.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Will you be there cheering as the next shipment of weapons makes its way to Saudi Arabia, or like others in Mrs May's fan club will you be turning a blind eye to our support of a terror state?